BPC future news flow and possible impact to share price (updated 6/8/20)6 Aug 2020 17:38
Between now and the Persv-1 spud result, news-flow will likely affect the SP: c25% from CERP news and c75% BPC’s. IMHO below marked ‘M’ could have a MAJOR impact to share price, ‘S’ could have SOME impact, and ‘H’ WILL have a HUGE impact.
Expected news-flow
1. ‘S’ Legacy licensing issues resolved with Bahamas Government
2. ‘S’ Bahamas Gov has accepted the Covid-19 pandemic constitutes a Force Majeure event and date extended.
3. ‘S’ Bahamas Gov has accept the few Environmental Approval issues outstanding and has fully signed off the spud.
4. ‘S’ Merger: Heritage and Staatsolie Suriname consent to the merger without exercising certain rights or objecting. [Refer to appendix 1 of merger prospectus RNS 11/6/20]
5. ‘H’ Funding updates, funding updates, funding updates.
6. ‘H Expert opinions from Proactive, Shore Capital and others on SP / Market-cap leading to spud, and if oil found..
7. ‘S’ Insurance taken for the Spud.
8. ‘H‘ ‘The Stena drill ship will leave port on dd/mm/yy’. Stena have committed to stating the date sometime between 1/9-31/10. (Incidentally, spud result envisioned 30-45 days after arrival onsite)
9. ‘S’ Total shares issued post-merger to be below 3.5b. This figure includes Gneiss £500k success fee unless paid in cash (point 11) and a slight increase on the 80m shares due to Trafalgar (re Lind).
Possible news-flow
10. ‘H’ Institutional investor(s) commitment. (Gneiss Energy advisors to BPC made £500k on 27/7/20 from the deal. They have many institutional connections. See https://gneiss.energy/about/ )
11. ’H’ joint Venture signed with Stena for BPC and CERP exploration. RNS can appear any time from 1/9/20 which is only c3 WEEKS away. At the time the 26/5 RNS was issued, a possible Stena JV was announced based on $10m for 10% farm-in or shares. It valued BPC at c3.2p DISCOUNTED despite the SP that day closing at 1.58p!
12. ‘H’ Major Oil company may want to JV. Must pay to play with a substantial contribution to actual c$100m (and theoretical c$500m) spent so far.
13. ‘H’ BPC plans to merge with, or acquire, little explorer(s)/producers in distress, using funds from points 10-12.
CERP related news flow (points 21-24, courtesy of LGO-fan. For expanded commentary see his BPC post 29/7)
20. ‘S’ Possible deal done with Predator (PRD) for up to $4m. (but see point 25)
21. ’M’ New Contract for Goudron with far better terms, allowing for more profitable BOPDs
22. ‘M’ Test results from S1 (MC), and turning this into a producer
23. ‘M’ Start drilling S2 ASAP
24. ‘S’ Successful CO2-project
25. ‘M’ After Trinidad 10/8/20 election result, all committed to lower the taxes on oil production from >$50/b to >$60/b threshold.
26. ‘S’ CERP 2019 accounts. Market likely already expects these to be down-beat, but H1 2020 update in same RNS, likely up-beat.
I excluded general news from above lists such as Covid-19, PoO, USD-GBP exchange rate. Let me know any proposed edits to the next version. All IMHO. DYOR.