Member Info for Starchild

IK, get your ar+e back here on this forum. We need our legendary captain to return with his diplomatic skills to run the team.
(For the avoidance of doubt I am humbly addressing IKing not the other IK, the de-ramping Queen IreneK )

Starchild
xxx

Dear Irene, our lean mean share-price de-ramping machine: You ask what appear to be valid questions on this BB, so you can then de-ramp further when you get an answer. Please GO AWAY and leave us alone.

Frankly, I’d gladly pay for you to have a vacation if you promise to stop posting on this forum while on vacation. With one condition: you wear a cheerleader’s American flag sequin leotard with a baseball cap stating in the Farsi language ‘I love the ‘great Satan’ America.’ Please let me know where I can arrange to send you a return complementary flight coupon, with that excellent airline British Airways……… for your upcoming IRAN vacation.

We wish to thank our generous sponsors British Airways for this post. BA’s business class and first class is like flying through a beautiful rainbow while riding a unicorn on your way to paradise. Even in economy class which I haven’t personally experienced for many years (but Irene will) I am informed you are treated exceptionally well with BA’s amazing award winning customer service.

Starchild (AKA Starfish)
Xxx

(UPDATES since I posted this yesterday are shown in [ ] below)
CERP’s merger market cap value in June 2020 was £25.1m including a premium uplift. In October 2019 when the SP was 5.1p its market cap was c£50m. in 2019/2020 analysts predicted a potential SP of 21p (and market cap of c£200m) assuming various factors proved favourable. LGO-fan’s informative posts on this BB 29/7/20 describes what these could be in the short/medium term. When the markets closed Friday, CERP’s market cap was £17m.

Thought experiment logic-flow (all figures approximate, sources already stated in my previous posts since June 12):
1. Post-merger this week, there will be c3.4b shares in play. Imagine BPC has no assets, there are no Bahamas licenses and no spud, however there are still 3.4b shares vs 1b CERP ones today. This would mean the market cap, purely based on CERP would be in the same potential range as shown in the above introduction: £17m - £25.1m – £50m – £200m.
2. With 3.4b issued shares this would value the possible SP in the above 4 benchmark figures at approx 0.5p, 0.75p, 1.5p, or 6p WITHOUT any BPC assets, potential assets, and BPC’s DEBT FREE $11m it has in the bank today.
3. When the markets closed Friday, BPC’s SP was 2.45p and had a market cap of £61m (without CERP). In February 2020 it has a SP high of 5.7p and a market cap of £121m (without CERP). Leading to spud, analysts predicted a potential SP of 8p and market cap of [£170m] (without CERP).

When we officially merge this week, let’s assume the combined SP is as now 2.45p and a combined market cap of 83m (3.4b shares). This means CERP’s value which accounts for approx 25% of future news-flow and revenue generating assets is approx. 25% of 2.45p. When split, this is a measly 0.6p and BPC’s an even more measly 1.85p. For goodness sake, despite CLNs and a rights issue creating some dilution, BPC SP was often at 2p for years without a glimmer of news! [And without the $11m we currently have in the bank!!]

Bottom line: I don’t think the markets, retail investors and rather unusually even day traders have realised that the SP today is way, way, way below the short and medium term potential of the merged organization. And that doesn’t even take into account the benefits the merger WILL bring such as leveraging finance to drill Persv-1 and potentially increasing production/revenue from CERP assets. All IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild
xxx
[Disclosure: I am a BPC LTH since 2014 and not a day trader or get paid to do 'PR.' My regular posts, opinions and original research are all done in good faith. Since the merger announcement in June 2020, many of my postings are to counteract what I believe are negative unfair opinions (sometimes fake news) by persons who I allege wanted the merger to fail, or have no shares in BPC or CERP, or are professional de-rampers and just want the SP to go down to benefit unknown 3rd parties and/or special interest groups. Why else would a shareholder bombard a forum with

Irene respectfully, you attack posters on this BB daily and to the best of my knowledge you have NEVER posted anything positive on either BPC, CERP or their BoDs. I and others therefore assume you have no shares in the company or you are a paid de-ramper.

My post this morning quoted facts, followed by my view and opinion in good faith of those facts arguing the case that IMHO the SP is undervalued.
Fact 1: in 2019/2020 analysts [working for the in-house broker] predicted a potential SP of 21p.
Fact 2: you believe this is a fantasy number and on several occasions rather disrespectfully refer to a respected CEO, an engineer with patents in his name as 'Oopsie Kootsie'

My post was written using Fact 1 as one of three market cap scenarios and not a prediction, nor an assumption CERP SP would reach 21p in its own right. However despite your total confidence (and perhaps hope) it will not, I respectfully suggest professional analysts have more experience than you which is why I left it to the readers of my post to make the decision and opine for themselves.

Starchild (or as you call me 'Starfish')

Irene, CERP/BPC’s daily de-ramping diva, you are twisting my words. I clearly used that figure as a benchmark example and quoted from it, whether you agreed with the in-house broker or not.

Frankly, if we lived in Ancient Babylon and I had the dire misfortune of being your husband I would use eBay to TRY and swap you for a small goat. Similar to this unusual one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uT-UGTQd6zQ . At least when I clapped my hands, ‘Kebab-Cuddles’ would immediately faint and stop yapping.

[We wish to thank our generous sponsors eBay Inc (Nasdaq: EBAY) for this post. Whether planning to build a full size replica of the Hanging Gardens of Babylon using LEGO or buying that special goat, this amazing company with its excellent trading/auctioning platform has a potential SP upside of approximately 28.04578743% by year end. ]

Bottom line: Totally ignore irritating de-rampers on share bulletin boards, gleefully clap your hands if you own eBay, CERP or BPC shares, and always DYOR.

We wish to also thank ‘the International fainting goat association’ and ‘Outrageous acts of science’ for the film clip.

Starchild
xxx

CERP’s merger market cap value in June 2020 was £25.1m including a premium uplift. In October 2019 when the SP was 5.1p its market cap was c£50m. in 2019/2020 analysts predicted a potential SP of 21p (and market cap of c£200m) assuming various factors proved favourable. LGO-fan’s informative posts on this BB 29/7/20 describes what these could be in the short/medium term. When the markets closed Friday, CERP’s market cap was £17m.

Thought experiment logic-flow (all figures approximate, sources already stated in my previous posts since June 12):
1. Post-merger this week, there will be c3.4b shares in play. Imagine BPC has no assets, there are no Bahamas licenses and no spud, however there are still 3.4b shares vs 1b CERP ones today. This would mean the market cap, purely based on CERP would be in the same potential range as shown in the above introduction: £17m - £25.1m – £50m – £200m.
2. With 3.4b issued shares this would value the possible SP in the above 4 benchmark figures at approx 0.5p, 0.75p, 1.5p, or 6p WITHOUT any BPC assets, potential assets, and BPC’s DEBT FREE $11m it has in the bank today.
3. When the markets closed Friday, BPC’s SP was 2.45p and had a market cap of £61m (without CERP). In February 2020 it has a SP high of 5.7p and a market cap of £121m (without CERP). Leading to spud, analysts predicted a potential SP of 8p and market cap of £150m (without CERP).

When we officially merge this week, let’s assume the combined SP is as now 2.45p and a combined market cap of 83m (3.4b shares). This means CERP’s value which accounts for approx 25% of future news-flow and revenue generating assets is approx. 25% of 2.45p. When split, this is a measly 0.6p and BPC’s an even more measly 1.85p. For goodness sake, despite CLNs and a rights issue creating some dilution, BPC SP was often at 2p for years without a glimmer of news!

Bottom line: I don’t think the markets, retail investors and rather unusually even day traders have realised that the SP today is way, way, way below the short and medium term potential of the merged organization. And that doesn’t even take into account the benefits the merger WILL bring such as leveraging finance to drill Persv-1 and potentially increasing production/revenue from CERP assets. All IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild
xxx

I found this Ernst and Young document very interesting. Entitled 'Innovative financing solutions for oil and gas companies' it explores various funding options. Despite being written in 2014, I believe the underlying principles apply. Due to the CERP merger, various options, or a hybrid of some, will be available for the BoD to leverage. This in turn will minimise the need for a massive share-diluting CLN. See https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-Funding-challenges-in-the-oil-and-gas-sector/$FILE/EY-Funding-challenges-in-the-oil-and-gas-sector.pdf

IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild

The rubber stamping of the merger will happen this week. To ensure your contributions are read, I suggest the few posters left on this CERP BB move over to BPC from now on.

Exciting times. Good luck all.
Starchild

I used to have political connections in Cambodia with Pol Pot’s cousins Pi55 Pot and Crank Pot. His older brother Flower Pot was imprisoned for being a hippy and smoking the stuff. Clearly this post is puerile, absurd and ranks in the top 50 most ridiculous share discussion forum posts of all time. The other 49 being, I respectfully suggest, recent posts from PRD activists lobbying on both BPC and CERP forums in favour of the $1.75m ‘offer’ to acquire our assets. We do not make these decisions, the BoD does, so what’s the point in cluttering up our BBs with this sort of disruptive stuff?

Starchild
xxx

Razor: Thanks for informing us. Please correct me if I am wrong:....PRD have the current monopoly to surplus CO2 in Trinidad and they use CO2 to get better oil extraction from the oil fields they have a CERP JV with. They want to pay $1.75m to buy out CERP's rights.
Questions: In your opinion.....
1. Leaving aside cashflow requirements, what will happen if BPC does NOT want to sell these rights?
2. Is the PRD CO2 process and engineering methodology a widely used industry norm, or a PRD patent-able invention?

Thanks
Starchild

Tiburn: Your BPC BB post and links yesterday were excellent and a reminder of Persv-1's potential. I have copied the key points below the xxxxx so I can easily find your post again. I suggest in parallel we all listen to Leo's June LSE presentation again. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LoJi9l-k4w Between 3.50 and 5.50 he appears very excited at the potential with words such as 'massive, multiple structures', 'reservoir traps all over the place', 'feels like Safron (11mboe) but with 700mboe.

Starchild

xxxx Tiburn's original post summary below xxxxx

https://www.bpcplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/BPC-Oil-Barrel-Sept-2019-vFin-stick-website-sml.pdf
Slide 6 - fold B north structure cross section, each green oil reservoir target marked, over ten are shown. Multiple targets with our one drill.

https://wiki.aapg.org/Risk:_expected_value_and_chance_of_success

“The four geological chance factors are defined so as to include the concept of the practical lower limit, that is, a modicum of porosity, permeability, and thickness of reservoir rock; a closure sufficient to contain an accumulation large enough to sustain a production test (or even a prudent drill stem test); and a hydrocarbon charge and sealing capability sufficient for at least 50% hydrogen saturation.” Chance of success calcs are very conservative - for example, if each aspect was 90% chance: Trap geometry 90%, Reservoir 90%, Seal 90%, Charge 90%, It would still only get a CoS of 65% in total. Change just one parameter to 50% then the overall CoS reduces to 36%, similar to what Perseverance #1 has best case.

We have a great chance here overall of hitting one of these reservoirs, also the overall structure has an impermeable mudstone drape covering it, also text from slide 12 is key.."lower prospect risk - more complete top seal cover"

Tiburn: Your BPC BB post and links yesterday were excellent and a reminder of Persv-1's potential. I have copied the key points below the xxxxx so I can easily find your post again. I suggest in parallel we all listen to Leo's June LSE presentation again. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LoJi9l-k4w Between 3.50 and 5.50 he appears very excited at the potential with words such as 'massive, multiple structures', 'reservoir traps all over the place', 'feels like Safron (11mboe) but with 700mboe.

Starchild

xxxx Tiburn's original post summary below xxxxx

https://www.bpcplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/BPC-Oil-Barrel-Sept-2019-vFin-stick-website-sml.pdf
Slide 6 - fold B north structure cross section, each green oil reservoir target marked, over ten are shown. Multiple targets with our one drill.

https://wiki.aapg.org/Risk:_expected_value_and_chance_of_success

“The four geological chance factors are defined so as to include the concept of the practical lower limit, that is, a modicum of porosity, permeability, and thickness of reservoir rock; a closure sufficient to contain an accumulation large enough to sustain a production test (or even a prudent drill stem test); and a hydrocarbon charge and sealing capability sufficient for at least 50% hydrogen saturation.” Chance of success calcs are very conservative - for example, if each aspect was 90% chance: Trap geometry 90%, Reservoir 90%, Seal 90%, Charge 90%, It would still only get a CoS of 65% in total. Change just one parameter to 50% then the overall CoS reduces to 36%, similar to what Perseverance #1 has best case.

We have a great chance here overall of hitting one of these reservoirs, also the overall structure has an impermeable mudstone drape covering it, also text from slide 12 is key.."lower prospect risk - more complete top seal cover"

Jeb: I thank you for your respectful and honesty post. Initially I thought you were a paid de-ramper. I am sorry you are underwater with your CERP shares, perhaps you will regain some of your losses over the next few months as BPC heads to spud and we get positive news-flow on CERP/BPC assets. Good luck, and hope all works out for you and your family. Perhaps as granddads one day we can have a zimmer race!

Starchild
xxx

LGO-fan. Many thanks for providing us with your CERP insight and experience.

LGO-fan: Thanks that was extremely useful. The issue is most BPC LTHs (including me) who did not have CERP shares prior to merger announcement don't know the CERP story in full. Even the 11/6 prospectus doesn't spell out the CERP detail.

The part I still can't quite get my head around is why, despite PoO and the drill that got stuck, the SP plummeted from 116p on 26/9/14. From the news flow points 21-24, assuming PoO $50 and news is best case, what could the potential CERP price or market cap have been without the merger?

Starchild

LGO-thanks. If you get time over next few days it would be helpful to expand on points 21-24 which I got from you.

Harry: 10/10 on your last post. Fully agree happy days.

Between now and the Persv-1 spud result, news-flow will very likely positively affect the SP. 25% from CERP’s assets news and 75% BPC’s.

Expected news-flow
1. Legacy licensing issues resolved with Bahamas Government
2. Bahamas Government has accepted the Covid-19 pandemic constitutes a Force Majeure event and latest drilling date extended from 31/12/2020 until [at least] ??/??/2021]
3. Bahamas Government has accept the few Environmental Approval issues outstanding and has fully signed off the spud for Perseverance-1.
4. Merger pre-reqs: Heritage Petroleum Company Limited and Staatsolie Suriname consent to the merger without exercising certain rights or objecting. [Refer to appendix 1 of merger prospectus RNS 11/6/20]
5. Funding updates, funding updates, funding updates.
6. Expert opinions from Proactive, Shore Capital and others on SP / Market-cap potential leading to spud, and if spud successful.
7. Insurance taken for the Spud.
8. The Stena drill ship will leave port on dd/mm/yy. Stena have committed to stating the date sometime between 1/9-31/10.
9. IreneK and Bully convert form the dark side, buy BPC shares and join us, the children of goodness and light. As an act of penance when we meet in the Bahamas for the mega party, all their drinks will be served DILUTED.

Possible news-flow
10. Institutional investor(s) commitment. (Gneiss Energy advisors to BPC made £500k on 27/7/20 from the deal. They have many institutional connections. See https://gneiss.energy/about/ )
11. Joint Venture signed with Stena for BPC and CERP exploration. This can happen anytime after 1 September. 5 WEEKS AWAY.
12. Major Oil company may want to join the party in a farm-in. Must pay to play with a substantial contribution to c$100m spent so far.
13. BPC plans to merge with, or acquire, little explorer(s)/producers in distress, using funds from points 10-12.

CERP related news flow (points 21-24, courtesy of LGO-fan 8/7/20)
20. Possible deal done with Predator (PRD) for up to $4m.
21. New Contract for Goudron with far better terms, allowing for more profitable BOPDs
22. Test results from S1 (MC), and turning this into a producer
23. Start drilling S2 ASAP
24. Successful CO2-project

Bottom line: BPC STRONG BUY at 2.5p, based on (a) [NOW] potential SP upside leading to spud 6-10p (b) [6 MONTHS] lots of oil found 20-40p (c) [15 MONTHS] lots of oil and quality proven £1+. (d) [2021/22] takeover by a major. (All IMHO. DYOR)

Starchild
xxx

Between now and the Persv-1 spud result, news-flow will very likely positively affect the SP. 25% from CERP’s assets news and 75% BPC’s.

Expected news-flow
1. Legacy licensing issues resolved with Bahamas Government
2. Bahamas Government has accepted the Covid-19 pandemic constitutes a Force Majeure event and latest drilling date extended from 31/12/2020 until [at least] ??/??/2021]
3. Bahamas Government has accept the few Environmental Approval issues outstanding and has fully signed off the spud for Perseverance-1.
4. Merger pre-reqs: Heritage Petroleum Company Limited and Staatsolie Suriname consent to the merger without exercising certain rights or objecting. [Refer to appendix 1 of merger prospectus RNS 11/6/20]
5. Funding updates, funding updates, funding updates.
6. Expert opinions from Proactive, Shore Capital and others on SP / Market-cap potential leading to spud, and if spud successful.
7. Insurance taken for the Spud.
8. The Stena drill ship will leave port on dd/mm/yy. Stena have committed to stating the date sometime between 1/9-31/10.
9. IreneK and Bully convert form the dark side, buy BPC shares and join us, the children of goodness and light. As an act of penance when we meet in the Bahamas for the mega party, all their drinks will be served DILUTED.

Possible news-flow
10. Institutional investor(s) commitment. (Gneiss Energy advisors to BPC made £500k on 27/7/20 from the deal. They have many institutional connections. See https://gneiss.energy/about/ )
11. Joint Venture signed with Stena for BPC and CERP exploration. This can happen anytime after 1 September. 5 WEEKS AWAY.
12. Major Oil company may want to join the party in a farm-in. Must pay to play with a substantial contribution to c$100m spent so far.
13. BPC plans to merge with, or acquire, little explorer(s)/producers in distress, using funds from points 10-12.

CERP related news flow (points 21-24, courtesy of LGO-fan 8/7/20)
20. Possible deal done with Predator (PRD) for up to $4m.
21. New Contract for Goudron with far better terms, allowing for more profitable BOPDs
22. Test results from S1 (MC), and turning this into a producer
23. Start drilling S2 ASAP
24. Successful CO2-project

Bottom line: BPC STRONG BUY at 2.5p, based on (a) [NOW] potential SP upside leading to spud 6-10p (b) [6 MONTHS] lots of oil found 20-40p (c) [15 MONTHS] lots of oil and quality proven £1+. (d) [2021/22] takeover by a major. (All IMHO. DYOR)

Starchild
xxx

Irene hun you are an exception. I have a soft spot for the resident BPC/CERP de-ramping queen. Perhaps it's Stockholm syndrome.

You are our chikitita seniorita. I really hope my £1000 life savings invested in BPC will become £30,000 in 18 months. It means I can have a nose job, facelift, liposuction, face warts removal, dentistry (for my 4 front missing teeth) and a male enlargement procedure a little too personal to spell out. If I wasn’t so happily married despite the latter, I would gladly pay for a Mexican mariachi band to serenade and seduce you into becoming my 9th or 10th (I can’t quite remember) fiancée. Based on your BPC/CERP de-ramping posts you appear to be the sort of woman with whom I could spend the rest of my life with. But I wouldn’t want to doing anything so insane. It would be akin to serving a life sentence doing hard-labour in a Mexican prison, and sharing a cell with a huge Mexican criminal called ’El porko chop’ who has a fetish for fat warty toothless men such as me. Mucho gracias amiga.

Starchild (AKA ‘Estrella Infantil’, ‘Estrella de mar’)
xxx