Member Info for Starchild

R: I think you are deflecting from the question. I've got to go out and unlikely avail for rest of day. Please think about this, because Ibiza's opinion although written on the back of a fag packet is mathematically feasible assuming $5/b x 2billion barrels. Also assuming at some point in the not too distant future after Persev-1 and 2 has been proven. Doesn't have to be 2021

Once you and perhaps others have given an opinion on the price per barrel in this academic exercise. We can then work backwards and quantify the SP.

R: don't worry about shares on issue for this academic exercise. The simple question is if a major oil company wanted to get their hands on 2bboe (proven) owned by BPC at the time, what is the fair price to pay per barrel? Analysts gave an approximate formula of $1/b just after spud, before all the proof was forthcoming in the months after spud.

R: yes, I'm assuming the 2 billion reserves are all oil, as presented on BPC and proactive websites as potentially present .
How much per barrel would you value an approach? 50p/b, £1/b, £2/b x 2 billion ?

Rosannan. Yes, it's on the basis of 2B proven reserves at some point in the future after Persev1 and Persev2 have been proven.

Rossannan: So how much would you value BPC if Exxon make an offer to buy it, assuming 2bboe PROVEN reserves? What formula would you use? I'm not talking the SP just after spud upon success.

If you can't, don't know how to value, or won't answer then I respectfully suggest you stop criticising Ibiza for his opinion.
I'm still awaiting for you and Irene to give the figure of how many barrels a day can be harvested in a typical offshore operation

Rossannan: So how much would you value BPC is Exxon make an offer to buy it, assuming 2bboe PROVEN reserves? What formula would you use? I'm not talking the SP just after spud

Rossannan: Ibiza28's opinion is NOT far fetched:.....If oil found at Persev-1 and a future Persev-2 with combined proven reserves of 2bboe late 2021………….why wouldn’t £2.50 a share for a buyout be feasible? It values each barrel at around $5-$6 plus all other possible reserves in BPC acreage will be part of the deal.

Read the history of Cove Energy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cove_Energy_plc Although a different time when PoO was much higher (c$90) it was a frontier explorer that got lucky. Initially floated for 12p and bought out by PTTEP after a bidding war with Shell for £2.40. What is interesting is most of Cove’s assets were as a minority holder to a number of huge discoveries. BPC currently holds 100% interest in its Bahamas acreage assets.

Provide comparisons withe similar M&A rather than blandly criticise.

Starchild

Good morning all,

My post yesterday was an elevator pitch on the potential income we would expect in future on a successful Bahamas spud. It was aimed at creating discussion and opinion. It was not a PhD thesis. I’m grateful with the positive feedback and supporting points of view. Thank you. However I was NOT enamoured by the trolling, some deeply offensive.

Alternative points of view are welcome. I stand corrected if any oil industry terminology I use can be stated better. Furthermore if anyone disagrees with the accuracy of any supporting evidence I provide such as quotes, links or 3rd party opinions…they are welcome to do so…………as long as they too support their arguments and quote SOURCES. The trolls on this BB forum generally do not, other than to spout negativity.

To follow on with the positive theme of my post yesterday, a few questions below. Question 1 is to our oil industry engineering tech experts, with more experience than me and others on this BB:

1. If 1 billion barrels of oil was proven a few months after spud, what do you estimate the total daily extraction rate would be or could be from the oil platform(s), ship(s), or 'thingies' doing the extraction? (BPC assumes initially 25,000b/day)

2. If you were a major oil company, would you prefer a farm out, pay all back-costs, pay all extraction costs and Gov royalties…and give 25% net to BPC……..or would you offer a cash buyout?

3. If the latter, how much cash would you offer bearing in mind the potential of billions more oil in BPC’s Bahamas acreage? (Assume $50/b PoO when making the offer and potentially $?? PoO in future)

4. As a BPC shareholder, how much would you accept per share to vote yes to such a deal? Or would you vote no, hoping PoO (and BPC profits and dividends) will substantially increase in future?

Have a great day all. Always DYOR.

Starchild
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An average offshore oil well produces 50,000b/day (source http://www.oilscams.org/offshore-vs-onshore-oil-drilling )
One particular offshore platform in Norway produces 87,000b/day and is connected via a 53km pipe to shore (source https://www.akersolutions.com/what-we-do/projects/gjoa-from-feasibility-to-production/ )

The BPC presentation (source page 27 https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/08/19180949/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf ) gives a very conservative initial 20,000b/day and all back costs paid during 2022/23 in full.

Observations and opinions:
1. The back costs alone are >$100m spent to-date + >$25m Perev1. This c£100m GBP itself is 50% more than BPC’s market cap today.

2. Initial very conservative estimated 20,000b/day at 25% NET revenue to BPC, royalties paid, zero tax, zero production cost (all paid by Major) at £50/barrel x 300 days x 25% of 20,000b/day is a LOT of dividends.

3. The figures are conservative because at 20,000b/day which over a 300 day year (hurricanes etc) is only 6,000,000b/year. If ‘only’ 770m reserves found it will take over 100 years. The extraction license with Bahamas Gov is for 30 years.

4. Above excludes a discovery next door in similar rocks

5. Above excludes CERP assets

Bottom line: I personally don’t care if the SP is 2p or 4p as the 1 in 3 odds bet’s potential upside is worth the gamble. However DYOR. IMHO

Starchild
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Irene hun, as an extra-terrestrial time traveller I speak and understand most of your earth languages other than a few extinct ones such as Amazonian Teushen spoken with an Icelandic accent. Frankly I have no idea what you are talking about other than it is in your usual ‘Irene BPC de-ramping gibberish’.

Kindly translate your last post for the benefit of the 3 persons out of 7.8 billion worldwide who actually read the daft anti-BPC posts you write to protect your CFD short positions. I thank you in advance on behalf of the whole world and the galaxy.

I will remain in a holding pattern contemplating my navel for 12 hours maximum, in anticipation of a response from your dainty fingers.

Fondly,

Starchild (AKA ‘Starfish’)
xxx

Irene our little BPC de-ramping pixie….
As the bottom said, ‘I’m all cheeks’
As the octopus said, ‘I’m all legs’
As I say, ‘I’m all ears’….

Please translate your last ‘Chicken and chips’ post into English from Ancient Babylonian slang, so humans and me can understand it.

Mucho gracias

Starchild

Rossannan, kindly explain your last sentence...'particularly since Koot shredded the roadmap'

Keith buddy: you're probably right. My gifted wife managed to breed a bulldog with a Shih Tzu and the new puppies were called bull5hitz. A few years ago it failed at Crufts for the reasons you eloquently pointed out and the same reason amongst others, Irene will fail as her posts are akin to the name of my wife's new breed of wonder dog.

Humbly,

Starchild
xxx

Irene our little wide eyed Hound of the Baskerville's BPC de-ramping puppy: If Crufts had a special category called ‘de-rampers on share forums’ you would qualify, however likely come last due to the poor quality of your silly posts and because your hair/fur is likely a total tangled mess.

[We wish to thank our generous sponsors Pedigree Chum for this post. This dog food brand is excellent according to my ex-wife (I think ex-5 but can’t quite remember). I love dogs but not bulldogs after being traumatised by her stupid bulldog ‘Captain Gumdrop.’ I felt ridiculous having to take it on walks with its giant pink head ribbon, nappy, metal studded spiked leather collar reminiscent of certain adult websites I am told exist, and its tight fitting Arsenal FC doggy costume. How embarrassing…………..Arsenal?

Key takeaways: Buy Pedigree chum and your dog will be healthy happy and could win Crufts. Support Man Utd. Ignore any IreneK posts on this BB which may be construed as loony, ie, all of them. And of-course buy BPC shares. ]

Starchild (AKA ‘Starfish’)
xxx

Interesting article on how and why AIM junior stocks are manipulated:
1. There is no 0.5% stamp duty to pay on AIM
2. Small oil/gas stocks are the most popular due to volatility!!!!!
3. CFDs can be leveraged for 25% the capital of buying the actual shares

And why, in my opinion,.....
4. Some regular posters on both here and ADV constantly bad-mouth the company and its BoD. Repeating the same negative posts and creating doubt using 'plausible' albeit doubtful reasons without actually spouting fake news. For example...'massive dilution', 'funding will fail.' etc.

Read http://www.cfdsurvivalguide.com/cfds/trading-aim-shares

Starchild

Rosannan, respectfully all my posts are in good faith, researched and caveated when applicable. My last post was not wishful thinking, it was an opinion based on my perception of the facts, for others to decide whether to agree with them or not. It would help if you access to a 2nd level console and could access the last week's of trades before commenting.

Have a good day
Starchild

When commenting on this BB, I rarely use the word ‘certainty’ and often state ‘possibility’ or, if I believe the opinion or assumption is reasonably accurate, I use the word ‘probability’.

You need a 2nd level console to check the opinion below……….
IMHO there is a probability Shore Capital (BPC’s joint broker + MM) has or is buying shares on behalf of a major client. For the following reasons:
1. It is unusual that SCAP has been top of the MM buy list for several days. Although not always the case, they normally take turns.
2. The Bid/ask price did not change yesterday despite several million alleged buys compared to sells. And without corresponding sells to the buys.
3. Despite the spread between top 2 MMs at the ASK level being very wide 2.05-2.3….. the large ‘buys’ yesterday did not trigger an increase in the SP (even temporarily) nor did it reach full price most of the day. It was around 2p.

Conclusions: the large buys were sells by the dumper(s), SCAP are buying them and giving them a good price, leaving the little buys/sells to the other MMs. The dumper which we assume is Trafalgar are about to run out of shares to sell. And there is a whale behind the scenes otherwise SCAP would not be doing this for a few million shares. IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild
xxx

Any time from today, Stena can give notice to BPC on the spud date and whether it wants to accept the offer for 10% at the asset or share level. It is in Stena’s interests to do so as they will immediately get a further $2m (in cash) on the $250k paid to date. Refer to May RNS. The longer the delay implies to me, Stena don't seek the $2m because they will do a deal with the 10%.

In the meantime, INVESTEC (BPC’s new joint broker who are also a Bank), GNEISS (who brokered the CERP deal and are experts in funding/M&A/capital raising https://gneiss.energy/about/) and the BPC BoD are pitching to institutional/HNWI investors and also trying to get a better deal than the baseline CLNs. Following the CERP merger, the BoD has even more funding options which will create competition. At the end of the day, lenders want to lend and investors do have risk appetite. Even Pension funds such as Mersey have invested in BPC.

BPC did not relocate and permanently employ a highly respected Aussie doctor half way across the world to live in the Bahamas on a hunch that ‘with a bit of luck, the spud will happen.’ I have absolutely no concern on the successful funding Persev-1 for reasons I and others have posted on this BB.

Have a great day

IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild
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Why I initially invested in BPC was the potential of finding ‘a lot’ of oil in the Bahamas ‘soon’. What made me substantially increase my holdings during 2020 was because I thoroughly researched this potential, compared it to similar explorers and was very much influenced by Dr Zac Phillips excellent 4/2/20 Proactive presentation. https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/912143/bahamas-petroleum-company---countdown-has-begun-912143.html .

The elevator pitch of what attracted me to BPC compared to other oil explorers with similar binary outcomes on success were the sum of 3 unique points:
1. The enormous size of the potential oil find vs the inexpensive share price.
2. If oil was found, there would be no capital gains or corporation tax to pay, with low c25% royalties which would leave ample room in the asset pie for a JV, farm-in and/or farm-out…….and future dividends. Despite dilution at the asset or share price level in lieu of funding.
3. If oil was found after the first drill, there would likely be vast quantities found in adjacent oil fields.

Due the above, although technically a binary bet with a 1 in 3 chance of success to hit the jackpot, IF we hit the jackpot we will keep a large chunk of the money (point 2) and a 2nd jackpot is possible (point 3) without having to lay another bet. All shares are a gamble and I foolishly purchased Tesco shares just before the 2014 accounting scandal hoping for future large dividends! By its very nature BPC is a large gamble, however IMHO well worth it and a bargain at today’s price.

Further to Jim’s informative post yesterday, a couple of points from me….There are clearly investors, perhaps even institutional ones who will buy the share but are waiting for absolute funding confirmation before doing so. Although willing to take the risk of a duster, these new investors are willing to pay more in future rather than ‘prat about’ or tie up capital now. It is these new investors awaiting news, who will spike the SP up until the results of the drill.

Bottom line: I remain fully confident funding will be forthcoming resulting in a spud 1Q 2021. I have no issue with some dilution at the asset and/or shareholding level as the asset pie is HUGE. And I firmly believe the BoD will get the best deal for all of us. IMHO Strong BUY. But always DYOR.

Have a great day.

Starchild
xxx

For the avoidance of doubt, my post was written satirically. I am not attempting to start a ramping rumor that a major is about to do a deal.

It is a fact based on recent presentations Majors are still in play, and also a fact majors do farm-ins (prior to spuds) based on potential and risk analysis with 2d/3d studies and nearby successes.

I am pleased this thread has caused a healthy debate. This is what this BB is for.

Have a great day all.
Starchild