Member Info for Starchild

Irene our resident BPC share-shorting saucy-sausage:

I do not profess to be particularly bright nor have a massive IQ. In fact I almost failed my second PdH due to dickslexia. However as usual I have absolutely no idea what your recent post and most posts are blabbering on about. My previous post was a commentary on someone else’s opinion on the potential 7p SP, backed by Investec Bank’s recent 6p note. Do you know better than Investec/Shore-Cap etc?

You appear to be living in another dimension compared to most humans. I base this observation on your communications skills and silly CFD/derivative based investment decisions. I strongly recommend you stop pouring cheap gin on your Muesli every morning. It will also avoid irritating most people on this BB.

Starchild (AKA ‘Starfish’)

tcjed1: 15/12/20 estimated ship arrival onsite, with spud a few days later.

Results: depending whether RNSs will be issued every-time the drill goes through each 'play' could be days and weeks. There are 9 or 10 plays down the same drill hole, each potentially holding oil for 90km.

it will then take a few weeks to analyze the rocks/samples, etc etc. Some possibly on the ship, others on-shore probably Texas.

Starchild
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MrGregg: Cash out at spud price or go all in? That is the $64,000 question only you can answer. From reading various posts over the months:

Some including me are all in and can afford the risk. I'll take the bet of 1 in 3, hedged by ex-CERP. However my accumulation over the years, since 2014, is on a low average.

Others are purely here until SP spud price 'soars'.

Other's will cash some and go for the big roll of the dice using potentially free shares.

It's up to you. DYOR. IMHO.

Starchild
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Ptrotter: Excellent written summary of the highlights of Leo’s 15/6/20 LSE interview on the massive Percy-1 potential. I recommend all newbies actually watch the interview here: (16 mins) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LoJi9l-k4w .

Oultonmike: Your 7p pre-spud justification is interesting. Last week Investec Bank proposed a possibility of 6p to its client base. Currently ex-CERP assets is the first 0.5p of BPC’s SP (and £20m market cap) and you opine it could reach 1.6p. This could be the case if we get hot ex-CERP news before spud. It will also hedge the bet if Percy-1 result is inconclusive.

Vusy: your opinion that the 475m II placement shares are now in circulation could be correct. If we refer to https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L between day of placing and eod yesterday c650m shares traded hands. Some II’s may be holding on for a higher price and others may hold a percentage until after spud. There was no evidence of massive II share-dumping yesterday even when bid/ask hit 2.30/2.40. Even if they do wish to exit (assuming some shares are left) , it will likely be done in a controlled fashion.

Old timers:……… who used to be on this BB years ago and have now reappeared…….. welcome back! Next few weeks is going to be exciting.

It is good word is getting around in various publications and not just specialist investment portals. The Evening Standard mentioned BPC as part of an overall story, and other mainstream news-outlets may do so in the coming weeks.

I wonder what next week will bring? Have a great Saturday

Starchild
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Coolmax: are you related to the Stena IceMax captain in any way?

Irene our naughty long faced baby crocodile: your last post gave me food for thought. Not much ‘food’ otherwise I would likely starve, but certainly some thought (for a nano-second).

On one hand is the Irene opinions that ex-CERP assets are as valuable as bottle tops, and the Percy-1 drill a joke, which no sane investor will buy into other than really gullible PIs. This is why you consistently short the share via CFDs to make money and spout daily negativity on this BB.

On the other hand we have various ‘other opinions’ based on expert studies, corporate presentations, confirmation of funding avenues in place for the last +/-$10m including ex-CERP development, Investec Bank stating a potential upside to 6p per share leading to spud date, with one of the best exploration drill ships in the world planning to be onsite by 15/12/20 to do the spud.

So after my ‘careful’ analysis of the situation which took even my slow brain to compute in a nano-second, I decided…….. erm, erm, erm………to tick the box called ‘other opinions.’

Fondly,

Starchild (AKA ‘Starfish’ when spelt correctly)

SammyB : Yes I know. It hasn't left the Canaries yet. See https://www.myshiptracking.com/vessels/stena-icemax-mmsi-235092459-imo-9517575#:~:text=The%20current%20position%20of%20STENA,the%20port%20of%20LAS%20PALMAS.

It probably will not leave until next month, however I could be wrong.

Starchild

Correction, last para should have read 'tomorrow morning' not this morning

I believe the BoD timed the £9.5m placing PERFECTLY with plenty of time for the SP to recover re the very final chunk of financing agreed for Percy-1 costs and ex-CERP asset development. We are now awaiting the Stena JV decision. I believe it will be made based on the following rationale:

1. If Stena agrees to a $10m JV at the asset level for 10% of Percy-1, we’re home free.

2. If Stena doesn’t want a JV at either the 10% asset or share level, then other funding options are in play. Worst case is the Bizzell CLN @2.5p (refer to my recent post which points to the 2019 RNS). Again we’re home free.

3. If Stena agrees to a $10m JV at the 10% share level, they will argue for their c450 million shares to be @2p, same as the recent institutional placing. BPC will argue, ‘yes but, why should BPC do this if as a worst case scenario is we can do the Bizzell CLN for 2.5p?’

4. If Stena leaves it too late to do a deal and the SP is in the 3-4p range, BPC may argue a much higher price per share is fair. Refer to 26/5/20 RNS ‘investment options’ section here https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/rdzqj8w, where it states………….‘ [Stena may] subscribe for up to $10 million of new equity in BPC on the same terms and conditions as would apply in any BPC capital raising’.

5. If Stena leaves it too late, not only could the higher rate prevail, but there is the risk BPC will not want to hang about. They will execute the final funding somewhere else. Not necessarily Bizzell as this is the benchmark.

6. If Stena agrees to the share JV, I don’t think they will share dump. Otherwise what’s the point? They would have just asked for cash rather than the ‘pratting about’ to liquidate ASAP, so as to get paid.

$10m is peanuts to the wealthy Stena sphere group. Stena IceMax cost >$1b. Source http://www.shipspotting.com/gallery/photo.php?lid=2613643 . $10m of add-ons in their cabins which can accommodate 180 people, would have been LESS than the equivalent percentage of buying a new vehicle and paying for optional extras such as leather seats or metallic paint. I believe the BPC BoD has the nous to sweeten the deal by giving Stena first dibs at exploration wells (if Spud a success). And let’s not forget Uruguay.

Bottom line: I believe we will get a Stena JV update soon. Which may be timed sooner rather than later to keep the new institutional investors who physically received 475m shares this morning quite ‘sweet’ unless some have already sold on a T10 forward. In the words of Yoda, ‘Delighted be, we will’.

IMHO. DYOR. GLA.

Starchild
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Why I am a LTH since 2014 with several million shares in BPC:

• Historically: >$100m spent to date on 2d/3d expert studies: 33% chance of oil.

• Today: Share price 2.15p of which the first 0.5p and £20m Market cap is ex-CERP assets related.

• In weeks: Success = immediate 20p+ …. Total duster = immediate knee jerk to 0.5p…..[possibly recovering to nearer 1p within weeks, and much more in a 2-4 years based on Ex-CERP asset news]

• Xmas 2021: assuming Percy-1 and appraisal well(s) a success…SP = ??? .....could be a lot more than 20p.

New to BPC?

1. Read latest company presentation here: https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/08/19180949/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf and note slide 11 (photo with red line in the middle). In simple language, Percy-1 will drill through 9 or10 layers. Any or all of these structures could hold massive oil reserves stretching 90km long.

2. Watch between 4-6 min timestamp of a recent Leo Koot (ex-CERP CEO) interview. He was physically excited at the potential structures while doing the pre-merger due diligence. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LoJi9l-k4w

Bottom line: If anyone can recommend a share with the same risk vs ROI potential, which is possibly fully HEDGED, please please let me know. And if you are an institutional investor that recently bought some of the 475m shares in the placement last week, do you want to make a fast 5-10% return next week, or hold some of your shares long for the potential massive ROI? It’s your choice. DYOR. IMHO.

Have a great day

Starchild
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Irene dear, at last we now have something in common. This is based on your recent wager with a fellow BB member on your belief there will be no ‘RNS before Xmas with an [CERP] S2 spud date.’

What we have in common is not whether this will happen or not, but your fondness of birds, as you plan to graciously give your planned winnings to the RSPB. I too love birds, especially game birds roasted on an open fire or BBQ, with a touch of herbs perfectly basted with oil and seasonal vegetables. I also like KFC original recipe. You should also try a Toby Carvery one day with its excellently prepared roast turkey. By pure coincidence I recently got a dovecote built in case my cat wants to have a snack.

I am so pleased we have something in common, which could lead to you ceasing to de-ramp BPC.

Fondly

Starchild (AKA Starfish)
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llallee: I'm not answering on behalf of Tosan, but you raise a valid point. However I'm not sure there is a recent precedent because of (a) the sheer volume of such a huge discovery (b) the markets may price-in, there's even more oil nearby.

Starchild
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Oultonmike: That is probably the best 4 line summary of the situation I have read for a long time on this BB.......I copy it below with one tweaked opinion in [ ]

'....Share price 2.2p
33% chance of oil
Possible 10 bagger or loose 50% sp 1p [with possibility of more than 2p in a few years based on Ex-CERP]
I'm in.....'

Starchild
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Rossannan: Thank you for your last post which I believe is honest. I wish you all the best in your long spread bet.

I just want all of us to do well. And as you know, I don't care if the SP is 2p, 3p, or 4p now as I'm all-in for the spud with several million shares. I can afford the loss but hope for the mega gain.

Starchild

Rossannan: Respectfully.......

1. Where in ANY post I have written have I predicted CERP assets are worth £500m of BPC's market cap? Read my last 2 posts again.
2. Do you hold any shares in BPC?
3. If not why are you on this BB other than to create discord?
4. If you do have shares, why the constant stream of negativity?

Starchild

I respectfully disagree with any poster on this BB that states CERP is irrelevant, a four letter word that should not be uttered, a dog, a waste of space or a heap of cr+p.

I also find it totally uncouth to doubt the integrity of Leo (CERP CEO) almost implying he wilfully misled shareholders.

As I see it CERP has 3 fundamental purposes:

1. KEY: An insurance policy for us if Percy-1 is a duster.

2. Leverage for potential finance now and in future as stated in last week’s RNS.

3. With some cash investment, which CERP did not have but BPC will, for future growth/enhancement/increased production.

I will continue mentioning CERP CERP CERP in my posts as I deem fit to avoid confusion with new investors who think BPC is a one drill wonder. It is not. I firmly believe, the CERP BoD believed, and the BPC BoD believes…… it has great potential.
How much potential? £500m, £250m, £100m, £50m? I don’t know, however with cash injection it is very likely to be more than the c£20m it is now. Period. Full stop.

I regret if this causes controversy and upset. If it does you know where the filter button is. Block me, rather than posting offensive posts.

Have a nice day. End of latest 'epistle.'

Starchild

In4cedros: No it was too dark and oil is black. .... but during my deep dive I met a number of friendly BLUE whales, which is an excellent omen!

Starchild

Garyn: Your weekend *************' article recommending BPC and opinions on this BB yesterday were very helpful to new investors.

Bynari: to add to your Stena investment post Sunday, it is worth new investors reading the RNS point 5 i-iv in full. Source… https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/rdz1k8w . It shows there are several options at BPC’s disposal even if Stena does not participate in the $10m JV. I have done a deep dive and will supply the info upon request, nevertheless I believe we only need c$10m to fund Bahamas Percy-1 and start developing and enhancing CERP assets.

Last year BPC had < $1m in the bank. It now has $24m cash, various acquisitions (fully paid assets) in a secure warehouse, a signed contract for one of the best drill ships in the world and a spud date of 15/12/20 to potentially find a middle eastern sized oil field. Furthermore, BPC owns all CERP’s assets, and all this with NO DEBT and relatively small fixed overheads.

I know everyone is focused on the 15/12/20 mega Percy-1 Bahamas spud with some waiting for the SP to surge by spud date. It will, especially with hysteria surrounding the potential ROI on success. But let’s not forget about CERP assets and their potential value, even when partially developed over the next year. When Leo (CERP CEO) was headhunted to take over CERP, he and his BoD over-hauled the company, created a roadmap for a £500m market cap company, only to be shot in the leg by Covid-19/PoO with no immediate access to inexpensive development/day-to-day cash-flow. BPC saw the opportunity and acted upon it. Prior to the merger, BPC were too risky and CERP too small. By merging it opened more doors to affordable funding and to hedge the bet in case the Percy-1 result is inconclusive.

Let’s not forget, soon after the merger proposal announcement in June, some LTHs were outraged and a civil war ensued on both BBs. Some BPC folks didn’t want to share the potential billions of dollars Bahamas prize with 800m new shares to CERP holders, and some CERP folks did not want to share a potential £500m market cap company with us lot! I’m pleased we merged, because……

(1) The first 0.5p of today’s temporarily low SP of 2.2p includes CERP assets. (Refer to my recent posts for the justification).

(2) With a relatively low cash investment, CERP in its own right, can contribute to the first few hundred million of BPC market-cap.

(3) Even if the £500m Leo vision is ‘only’ £250m in the next 2-3 years, this represents the first 6.3p of our future SP (assuming 4b shares)

Key takeaway: when BPC confirms its last chunk of funding, I estimate c$10m, it will have enough to drill Bahamas Percy-1 and help to develop CERP assets in their own right. It will be great if both come up trumps, however even if only one of them does, we’ll all be happy campers!

News-flow imminent. All the above IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild
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'Application will be made for the 475,000,000 Placing Shares to be admitted to trading on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange ("AIM") and it is expected that admission will take place and trading in the Placing Shares will commence from 8:00am on 8 October 2020 ("Admission").'

I think it is important to get opinions over the next few days on whether the IIs will sell for a quick flip, or hold as discussed in my post this morning. This short video was interesting and implied when buying/selling micro companies....they do so gradually. https://www.fool.com/investing/2018/11/07/what-are-institutional-investors-and-how-do-they-a.aspx

GLA....off with missus

Starchild

I found this article interesting https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/07/insitutional-owners.asp
it implies when an Institutional Investor is holding a lot of stock, it will 'talk the price up.'

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the 475million shares will not be available for trading until 8/10, unless the IIs can forward sell in some way.

Also, assuming some or all the II's do want to sell most of their BPC shares, why is it assumed they will do so via MMs or via direct access? We all agree there will be a lot of interest leading to spud, so i would think the IIs would sell to other IIs or HNWI. It will be as simple as contacting BPC's inhouse brokers SCAP and INV.

DTrump: any thoughts?

InterestK: in the day you ran dealing rooms, would you hold or flip for a quick gain?

Starchild
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