Member Info for Starchild

PI: I'm ready for a giant ramp.................' I think BPC is gorgeous and ex-cerp assets wonderful. Like a rum and raisin ice cream that never ends or makes me fat'.

Starchild

Petro$: Spot on. Totally agree to hold until after spud result. Especially because of the c$100m spent between the 2011 interview and when Stena has finished at Percy-1 1Q 2021. And as a 'by the way', it gives investors even more confidence with potentially hedging the bet by end 2021, if the result is inconclusive.....based on ex-CERP assets alone. IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Fascinating article on the history of BPC until 2011, prior to 3D seismic studies. It was an interview with Dr Paul Crevello who resigned from BPC soon after for personal reasons. It was done in the middle of the 3D survey, so he didn’t resign because of any tech disappointment based on the 3D. (Source https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/26701/bahamas-petroleum-reveals-resignation-of-ceo-dr-paul-crevello-31870.html )

Snippets from the article https://www.businessinsider.com/paul-crevello-and-the-oil-rich-possibilities-for-bahamas-petroleum-company-2011-6 :

[In 2010, ‘BPC’s] PR group in Houston had contact with George Bush Snr and he was quite impressed and happy to see that it was being followed up on because he had strong beliefs that there was potential for good oil to be found there.’

‘Essentially you can picture this as an upside down bathtub up to 70 km long and that vertical closure is essentially the depth of the bathtub up to 1.5 km or more, and that is huge’.

Bottom line: If a seasoned oil-men like George Bush Snr and Howard Hugues could see Bahamas’ potential using old technology and the knowledge of similar finds in the region….it’s good enough for me. Especially with all the 2D and 3D done to-date.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Zag: no offence meant. Just creating conversation out of boredom. I get the impression you massively hang to the right. I've got friends / biz partners who hang at opposite spectrums. Respect to all. Respect to democracy in countries where it is allowed.

Best

Starchild

1. Highest minimum wage in the world is Geneva £19/$25/€22: Read https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54745033 . Perhaps the paid de-rampers on this BB can get-lost and leave us alone. Move to Switzerland.

2. We sometimes get polarised rampers vs de-rampers on this BB similar to the US election tomorrow. Watch this excellent clip from CNN on what happens if the USA election result is disputed or consented…………. It’s for 3 mins and really fascinating!...... https://edition.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/10/31/contested-election-2020-scenarios-me-orig.cnn/video/playlists/this-week-in-politics/

If the US election is disputed just as we are about to get the initial results of Percy-1 spud, the word will eventually know who is the US President and arguably leader of the western world. I am neutral in USA politics with many great friends until now when I lived there. However if President Trump loses, there is a chance he may end up in jail by the 2024 Presidential election, and the conservative majority supreme-court will not protect him, other than reducing or suspending his sentence.

What does the above mean for BPC? STRONG Buy! (sorry couldn't resist)

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

GG: VERY wise words

Starchild

JimTK: valid points

Zag: I agree cat and mouse has been played for quite a long time. It could be the recent II issue was to prove we are serious about self-funding and timed when a major was pratting about for either a farm-in or buy-out.

IF a buyout was on the cards by a major, it is unlikely to include ex-CERP assets or Uruguay as they are too small for a major to deal with. Whether folks agree with recent analyst’s £200m+ market cap for ex-CERP (and my figures), the BoD’s recent presentations are upbeat about the potential.

IF a buyout, it would have to be silly money for rights to the whole B structure and possibly all Bahamas acreage. If I was the BPC BoD, and the major came to me, assuming it is the same bigco that spent 4 months in the data room in 2018, especially if they had played cat and mouse as recently as just before the II issue, I would be politely assertive although not as rude………………. ‘Dear bigco, do you want a deal or not? We survived despite you waiting for us to collapse. We don’t need your money. We have it. Based on your procrastination, BPC has diluted its shares since 2018. Pay to play, or go away until after spud when the price will much more with many major players phoning us all day. …’

Also refer to yesterday’s article https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/10/30/with-little-left-to-cut-oil-majors-must-wait-for-a-recovery . Although majors have billions in capex despite cut-backs, they are worried of future low reserves to sell in future, if they cut back by too much. BPC could be a great asset, whether farm-in, farm-out….and even buy-out. The question being: as an oil major do we have a flutter or not? With a farm-in, it would be petty cash.

Off with the better half. Have a nice afternoon,

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Zag: buyout pre-spud unlikely unless major offered silly money. Because BPC BoD would decline, as we are now fully funded. 2 years ago, maybe. IMHO.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

JimTK interesting observations in your post. Here's an idea which is only an idea and not a rumor I'm attempting to start.

Stena has a BPC 10% JV option expiring end of the month (asset Percy-1 or shares).
Stena has a relationship with Exxon and other majors. It is a supplier.
What if Stena assigns its right for the asset level (non-working interest) to a major in return for $10m or more? or
What if Stena/Exxon and BPC are in the middle of doing a deal?

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Good morning all

I have listed the key points from Friday’s excellent 30 minute interview … ‘A Bright Year-End: Malcy talks to Simon Potter and Eytan Uliel of Bahamas Petroleum.’ Source https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K8lIplrzbF4 . My commentary and approximate time-stamps are shown in [ ] below.

[3:00] Percy-1 ‘virtually a dead cert’ based on two independent CPRs and other due dili. 25-35% CoS for a frontier exploration prospect is exceptional. [X-ref this with Leo Koot (ex-CERP CEO) interview 4 – 6 min timestamp. He was very excited about Percy-1 while doing pre-merger due dili. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LoJi9l-k4w ]

[6:30] ‘If Percy-1 comes in, my [Simon] phone will be ringing off the hook from majors.’

[8:30] ‘So will my phone [Eytan], as commercial director!’

[9:00] ‘Lots of people have done complete due dili. A major even paid for exclusivity. Lot’s of companies expected to outlast us or we would go bust.’ [Refer to my post 27/10/20 05:53, ‘Farm-in by a major? Analysis as at 27/10/20’ and Jimtheknow recent posts.]

[10:00] ‘Investment community wants risk and asset spread, hence the CERP merger’. [Refer to my post 30/10/20 04:31, ‘BPC 4p-5p per share end 2021 if Percy-1 is a duster? ‘Dangerous’ ‘crackpot’ idea, or possible?’ ]

[13:00] CERP. With the BoD’s successes with Dart International and Arrow energy, it will use the manufacturing/factory approach to boost productivity and cash. We now have a 3rd workover rig and approval has just been given by gov to use Co2 or water to boost production.

[14:30] CERP Saffron 2. Preference for this to be done inhouse without a JV partner. No upside in sharing asset. [IMHO, this shows confidence by the BoD having done due dili, S2 is HOT. It also implies overall funding not an issue]

[15:30] CERP Suriname hot. 500 BoD. Upswept areas with proven reserves nearby. Onshore, therefore relatively cheap and quick to monetise. Potentially running for other licenses. Uruguay 1 billion barrels potential. Studies show similarity to Bahamas, Suriname and Guyana.

[22:00] Finance. $23m cash, no debt. Percy-1 will cost $21-25m plus or minus $5m inc contingency. Will only seek cash when needed. Trinidad and Suriname mentioned again re cash generation.

[26:00] ESG commitment ongoing. Early 2021 delivery. [Refer to recent environmental report mentioned in interview here https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/10/14102918/100759-BPC-QA-Doc_FINAL.pdf ]

[28:30] Malcy, ‘Most exciting wildcat drill worldwide for quite some time’

[30:00] Positive and transformational for the people of the Bahamas.

[31:00] in 18 months expand Trinidad and Suriname. BoD has the experience and skills to deliver.

Key takeaway: Both in body language and spoken word, Simon and Eytan appeared VERY up-beat and confident. Exciting times ahead. Substantial news is expected during November. DYOR. Have a great Sunday.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Good morning

I suggest you switch to message view and read all of yesterday's posts sequentially. Some very interesting viewpoints and opinions on The Malcy interview and potential farm-in.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

I find attempting to understand Irene and Rossannan negative BPC posts, is akin to deciphering the legendary Pinky and Perky singing while under the influence of hallucinogenic substances. And just as irritating.

Watch https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olGim6tf6tc with its amazing special effects. I think this song was originally written by Bob Marley and appears to have a subliminal erotic undertone. However I could be wrong about the composer.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

This is an update to my posts from 21/10 due to being mis-quoted out of context with a ‘warning’ my RESEARCHED opinions were DANGEROUS. Challenges are welcome if evidence and links are provided. Offensive comments by persons who have no shares, permanent shorters, BPC haters or alleged disrupters/manipulators, who provide NO proof or links in support, are NOT welcome. For example Irenek’s recent posts using the term, ’ subscale garbage’, and calling me a ‘crackpot’.

Background
20/10 presentation https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/10/20121621/BPC-UK-Investor-Magazine-VC-Presentation-20-October-2020.pdf slide 21 and footnote 3 which states………’2021 goal >$15m NET of applicable royalties / fiscal takes’. And…..’end 2021 GOAL 2,500 bopd (net)’. Also refer to slide 14 stating onshore costs are c$20/b.

Cross reference this with the August slides 27 and 29 which show the same $15m goal with a price model of PoO at only $40/b https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2020/08/19180949/BPC-Management-Presentation-August-2020.pdf

1. Now let’s make the following simple assumptions:
(a) CERP is still a stand-alone public company with 4 billion shares
(b) $15m NET profit per year based on $40/b PoO. ($40 x 2500 bopd x 360 days = $36m gross sales/turnover. $20/b extraction costs = $18m gross profit )
(c) $3m expenses consistent with 2018 accounts https://columbus-erp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Columbus-Energy-Resources-plc-Annual-Report-and-Accounts-2018.pdf
(d) No debt/capex
$15m - $3m = $12m = £9.3m profit (@ £1 = $1.30 and $40 PoO)

2. Now let’s look at P/E ratios:
Tesla is 60x
Google/Microsoft is 24x
Oil industry (Q4 2019) was 17x (source https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012015/what-average-pricetoearnings-ratio-oil-gas-drilling-sector.asp)

3. Now let's do some maths:
At $40/b PoO, P/E of 17 x £9.3m profit = £158m market cap…..c4p per share.
At $50/b PoO, the additional $10 would be profit minus gov royalties. For simplicity let’s add another c£3m to the annual total making it £12.3m x 17 P/E ratio = £209m market cap. But let’s round down to £200m and divide by 4 billion shares….. 5p per share.

‘Crackpot’ or ‘dangerous idea? In March 2020 respected analysts re-iterated 21.6p/c£220m CERP mCap!!! Source https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/916212/vsa-capital-market-movers---columbus-energy-resources-916212.html

Bottom line: CERP suffered a perfect storm of bad-luck. The biggest being lack of capex to develop some excellent assets. BPC will have the funds and if stated goals are reached end of 2021, at $40-$50 PoO we are looking at potentially £158m - £200m market cap from ex-CERP assets alone. That’s potentially a future 4-5p per SP, despite a possible TEMPORARY sub-1p SP if Percy-1 is a duster. Furthermore, BPC could possibly SELF-fund Uru-1 exploration + spud.

Strong BUY! All IMHO. DYOR.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

I would think Malcy's BPC zoom meeting/exclusive interview is being edited/post-processed for upload as I write. Probably be made live tomorrow morning via his blog which is emailed most days between 11am-2pm.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Cerbor. I think you may be right. Especially as it is via zoom. I wouldn't want 'us lot' on a public zoom call if I was the BoD.
Either that, or due to the time change from 1000-1100, we are using an expired link. If it's a private call, it explains why there is nothing in the public domain about this meeting.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

I'm getting 'host has another meeting in progress'

Rhetorical question, although feel-free to post:

If from today the SP hovered in the 3.5p-4p range, yet we were still awaiting probable or possible news as I used best endeavours to list this morning, would you be…………

1. Content and patient
Or
2. Continue to be upset at the lack of news?

3. Would you change your answer above if the SP was in the 4p-4.5p range?

The BoD will provide news when it is ready. They will not do so just because some traders, using ‘smoke and mirrors’, want to play with the stock but currently can’t.

GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

ps….. someone referred to me as a ‘medium’ today. I am not. I am a ‘large.’

Petro$: your early post was a great summary of the investment decision and opportunity. As you can see I ran out of room to acknowledge it!

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Between now and year-end, Percy-1 and ex-CERP related news is expected. IMHO those marked ‘S’ could have some impact and ‘M’ may have a MAJOR impact to SP.

Expected news
1. ‘S’ Admin. Licensing updates Bahamas Gov.
2. ‘S’ Admin. Bahamas Gov sign-off of the few EA issues outstanding, IF any.
3. ‘S’ Merger admin: Heritage Trinidad and Staatsolie Suriname consent to the merger.
4. ‘M’ Competent person’s report: An audit of BPC's probable reserves.
5.a ‘M’ Funding: soon after 15 November, has the £1.5m Bizzell CLN @ 2.5p been exercised? Why?
5.b ‘M’ Funding, soon after 1 December: update for +/- $10m. Stena JV option at the asset or share level.
5.c ‘M’ Funding via mortgage/loan to develop income earning infrastructure.
5.d ‘M’ Funding via reserve based lending after CPR. (News may be delayed until Jan/Feb. See points 32-35)
6. ‘M Expert opinions from Proactive, Shore Capital, Investec Bank and others on SP / Market-cap leading to spud, and if oil found. Investec purportedly stated 6p pre-spud.
7. ‘M‘ The Stena IceMax ‘is on its way……crew safe.’
8. ‘S’ ‘The Stena IceMax spudded yesterday at hh:mm local time….crew still safe.’
9. ‘MMM’ Initial interim spud updates (news may be delayed until January).

Possible news
20. ‘MMM’ Major Oil company JV/farm-in. Must pay towards actual c$140m (and virtual c$500m) BPC spent until 1Q 2021.
21. ‘M’ 3rd party supplier such as Haliburton pays or offsets some Percy-1 costs.
22. ‘S’ Uruguay project roadmap released. (Probably 2021)

Ex-CERP related news which may affect the first 0.5p (first £20m market cap) of the BPC SP. Some points, courtesy of LGO-fan/in4cedros/ADVF guys and others.
30. ‘S’ Possible deal done with Predator (PRD) for $2-$4m. (lapsed, but may materialise in future)
31. ’S’ New Contract for Goudron with better terms.
32. ‘M’ Test results from Saffron 1 (MC), and turning this into a producer.
33. ‘M’ Saffron 2 design, gov approval, drill date. (CPR updated after drill result?.... leading to RBL point 5.c above and no CLN?)
34. ‘S’ Successful CO2-project Fram/PRD. (see 30)
35. 'M' Suriname. JV with Staatsolie. 24 million boe STOIIP.
36. ‘S’ CERP 2019 financial update. Markets already expect this to be down-beat, but H2 2020 update in same RNS, likely up-beat.
37. ‘S’ Spanish gov to refund $1m for something ex-CERP related which I can’t remember

I excluded general news such as Covid-19, PoO, Brexit, USD-GBP exchange rate. Let me know of any proposed edits to the next version.

Read 20/10/20 presentation https://www.bpcplc.com/bpc-presentations-webcasts/
Watch between 4-6 min timestamp Leo Koot (ex-CERP CEO) interview. He was very excited about Percy-1 while doing pre-merger due dili. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1LoJi9l-k4w

IMHO CONVICTION strong buy leading to 15/12/20 Percy-1 spud. This is NOT a SP prediction for tomorrow or next week. All IMHO. Always DYOR and/or seek professional advice. GLA. Looks ready to move!

Starchild
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PI: loved your post! It was a very good summary and amusing.

The key point being, IF a farm-in was still at play, will the major's execs wish to bask in glory (and international news) if Percy-1 successful....vs.......a relatively tiny $50-$90m lost bet which wouldn't even show as a footnote in their annual accounts. It's probably the cost of doing a full service on ONE giant oil tanker in a major's fleet including a paint job.

Starchild
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