Member Info for Starchild

Dpend: thanks for bringing todays PRD RNS to our attention https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/PRD/operational-update-co2-eor-trinidad-zusf45pr0behl18.html

It is good for both PRD and FRAM (owned by BPC) . I will leave to our CERP asset experts on the potential of this announcement. I get the impression a lot will be announced very shortly about various ex-cerp assets, in one chunk, which is why we didn't get an RNS on this matter today.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Yesterday Jimtheknow posted some interesting opinions on a possible farm-in. I wish to add a few points:

1. Recent company presentations have confirmed farm-in talks have continued.

2. It is very likely the major that spent $1m for exclusivity in the data-room 2+ years ago liked what they saw. I come to this conclusion because exclusivity isn’t only about doing due diligence, it includes time for the parties to reach a contractual agreement or at least an MOU. Evidence is the fact the exclusivity was extended in return for cash. Refer to RNS 26/7/18 https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/xlm2gjr and you will note this exclusivity ran from May 1 – Sep 1 2018. Also note one of the objectives was to ….. ‘seek to develop a commercial famework for a potential transaction’. Perhaps the typo was freud-esque in nature! More seriously though, what did the major do for 4 months? I don’t believe its engineers with PhDs coming out of their ears spent several months munching data. It is therefore reasonable to assume a farm-in was offered but not at the rates the BoD would agree to.

Let’s fast forward to today

3. All BPC’s ducks are almost aligned. Percy-1 will happen. Compared to 2018, the BoD are not in need of cash for Percy-1, other than its possible contingency costs and to develop CERP assets. The 2018 exclusivity major and other majors know this.

4. The Majors know everything we do (and more, if NDAs have been signed, which we know were in 2018). They know everything is coming to a head for finance between today and 30/11/20: Stena JV? CLN for 1.5m 15/11/20? Other?

I believe there is a very good chance a Farm-in may be on the cards, however unless it involves substantial sums or at much better rates than Stena’s, the BoD will decline it, especially if Stena agrees to the JV. Why? Because we will NOT need the money and furthermore, if Percy-1 is commercial, a farm-out will be at substantially better terms, possibly by a factor of 10.
All said and done, if a major offered lots of $$$ at a premium or not, I am confident the BoD will make the best decision for its shareholders.

IMHO.DYOR. GLA

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

I've noticed IreneK bombards this BB on certain days when the SP is slightly tweaking downwards. Probably because she is temporarily shorting the share with a CFD.

BUY, BUY, BUY

Starchild

ps....BUY BUY BUY

LLL: I can see your point, however it is the duty of a BoD in a public company to work in the bests interests of its shareholders. The CERP BoD voted unanimously for the merger for this reason even if it meant their jobs were on the line. Had they not voted in favour and something bad happened to the company, there could have been legal consequences.

Chesh: I have been on the phone to the Samaritans all morning in total despair that Rossannan has now blocked me. It only happened to me once before, however I fully admit at the time, I went OTT by implying the internal use of a gerbil to the poster involved. (I apologised and we are now generally buddies). The funny thing is I didn’t actually allege Rossannan is a liar, merely suspicion she doesn’t hold any shares. Furthermore, my generic comment…. ‘No sane person would bad-mouth their own shares’, is I believe a fact, unless the person is totally sane and manipulating a BB, hence my original suspicion.

Irene: your post is not worthy of a response other than I really wish you and Rossannan would have the esteemed honour of being asked by the United Nations to establish humankind’s first colony on the moon, where you would both go forth and multiply. And to help you both carry out your romantic task to fill the lunar surface with happy little future whinging de-rampers, internet access would be banned.

Starchild

I am really skeptical Rossannan has 1m shares in BPC and 250,000 exotic CFDs....
1. Because he writes constant negativity
2. Because he created the subject line thread below, which he keeps replying to!

'BPC 0.4p-0.5p per share (£20m market cap) if Percy-1 is a duster? Here’s potentially how and why'

Do not reply to his negative thread, unless you agree with him . All he or she is doing is creating conversation so you will reply and advertise his subject line!

No sane person would bad-mouth their own shares!

Starchild

CORRECTION Zag: We are fully funded for Percy-1, but not for ex-CERP dev....unless Percy-1 is a duster and the drill team realises quickly and spud done under-budget. If this happens we probably have enough for ex-CERP dev

Zag: We are fully funded for Percy-1, but not for ex-CERP dev

When drafting the drill contract, it appears strange that Stena has until 30/11 to decide on JV options. Why not at the same time as informing BPC of the spud date? I believe it is for the following reasons:

1. It is very likely Stena signed an NDA in May and knew about the possible CERP merger a few days later. Hence the JV option was asset OR shares. Without CERP, while BPC was a one-trick-pony there wouldn’t have been much point to offer both options as they were ostensibly the same. Furthermore, before the Stena announcement on 26/5 BPC’s SP was sub 1.5p (market cap <£30m) for many weeks. (Source https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L ) It would have been cheeky to state….. ‘Hey Stena have we got a deal for you! Give us a $10m credit towards the spud which you have already heavily discounted and we will generously offer you 10% of the company worth $4m net today.’ This brings me to the conclusion Stena knew about the merger.

2. The CERP BoD unanimously agreed to the merger despite most of them losing their jobs, knowing BPC would have access to cash to pay for Percy-1 and develop ‘hot’ CERP prospects such as S1, S2, and Suriname.

3. The CERP BoD, BPC BoD and Stena also knew, what we now call ‘imminent news’ would be forthcoming prior to 30/11.

Conclusions:

1. I believe BPC is putting pressure on Stena to make a JV decision prior to the Bizzell 14/11 cut-off date.

2. It is likely that a competent person’s report expected in Dec will be given to Stena under NDA in draft form soon.

3. If Stena decides not to proceed with the JV, nor agrees to delay part-payment for some of its invoices due in Feb/March (with incentives), it is likely the £1.5m Bizzell CLN will be triggered for 60-70m shares. (Refer to RNS https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/bahamas_petroleum_company/news/rns/story/w0l08nw )

4. If though any ‘imminent news’ or ‘watch this space’ news prior to 15/11 is such that BPC can borrow against it prior to when it needs the cash to pay its Stena bills in Feb/March, we will NOT need the CLN in full or in part. Furthermore some of the $5m contingency costs may not materialize anyway unless something really good has been found!

5. Which is why back in May, the BoD and Stena knew everything would come to a climax around now, hence the Stena cut of date to make the JV decision was 30/11/20.

Key takeaways: Lots of news is expected imminently which could positively affect the SP. See my post yesterday morning. Best case is Stena does NOT do a JV and agrees to delayed payments based on this news. Result: no dilution. Next best is a Stena JV at the share level but at a price nearer to 3p+ per share. ($10m/£7.5m @3p = 250m shares). And the worst likely is BPC will take up 50% of the Bizzell CLN @2.5p + interest (approx. 300m shares).

Conviction STRONG BUY leading to Percy-1 spud on 15/12/20. All above IMHO. DYOR. Have a great day.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/st

GG: You are a gentleman. And I commend you. Nothing wrong in sharing the response from BPC today....my only issue was disclosing the email address within it, which I assume will be edited by LSE in 24 hours to avoid spam to the poor lady who sent it...Tara? . I firmly believe you did not do this with will intent.

Good luck mate

Starchild

GG: totally out of order posting a live email address, based on confidentiality statement at the bottom.

It also shows this BB is constantly monitored by the company!!!! Because the exec assistant to email you on a Sunday, while she is on leave.

I suggest you remove the post and edit it out of decency

Starchild

Irene quote...'subscale garbage'. If she is referring to her posts I tend to agree.

If based on revenue, 450 Boe/day x 360 days, assuming $40 PoO at $20 extraction costs on-shore = $3.2m/year. That's $3.2m dollars of 'subscale garbage' a year BPC did not have until after the merger in August. Excluding the upside of S1, S2, and Suriname, projected to net millions end of 2021.

Irene: I am still awaiting for an apology as I based my figures on corporate presentation goals and 3rd party proven P/E ratios x17 used for oil industry market caps and not my predictions. Please withdraw the allegations….’ lol, you made a crackpot prediction of profits in 2021’ …and…. ‘You really are a crackpot. I feel sorry for all the newbies who seem to be taken in by you.’

Are you man enough?

Starchild

GG: I strongly recommend you sell up, especially as I believe it's your kid's inheritance which you have stated before. It's not worth the high blood pressure or stress under the circumstances.

BTW we use telephony systems in several countries which are programmed to go to a back-up extension (if not answered in 'x' rings) routed to a a mobile phone or other extension. If this too doesn't answer in x rings, it goes to a central live operator service who will take the messages worldwide and email us. Occasionally, and very rarely, the operator if a novice (who is dealing with many companies) can't even pronounce the company names correct or doesn't even know key persons.

GG I read your subsequent post. What are you alleging? a fraud? People on this BB including me have emailed BPC and got responses. When I phoned I have also got a response eventually but that was before covid-19. Lot's of people are working from home. This is a fact. I'm not here to defend BPC's admin processes. Do you really think in 2020, a company as small as BPC (employees spread around world) rent office blocks? They don't need to and it saves us shareholders money.

BTW, I have several companies in various countries and used virtual offices/phones for years. When we wanted to meet face to face we used biz centers, IOD for UK, or hotels in various countries.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

GG. Answers embedded below in [ ] as best I can in the time I have avail. I'm not sure why you want this info.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

1. How many barrels of oil has been produced and sold by CERP (or a different trading name) in the past 2 years? [Please refer to revenue figures in CERP financials 2018 which also shows 2017 https://columbus-erp.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Columbus-Energy-Resources-plc-Annual-Report-and-Accounts-2018.pdf ]

2. How many barrels of oil has been produced and sold by BPC in the past 2 years? [Zero. Why do you think otherwise?]

3. Apart from the intangible assets of the licences what assets did BPC have prior to the CERP Acquisition as I cannot see very little in the balance sheets ? I may be missing something. [I think you are right, but check 2019 BPC accounts]

4. There are six board members according to the official website: Bill Schrader, James Smith, Simon Potter, Adrian Collins, Ross McDonald and Leo Koot. All but one of these directors is a NON- EXECUTIVE Director. The one exception being Simon Potter. Does anyone find this unusual? [No. Why, do you?]

What personal stake or shareholding do these non-excecs have in BPC ? {This is stated on recent RNSs but i can't remember where]

6. Has anyone on this BB seen any presentations from anyone other than Simon Potter or Eytan Uliel ? There are 18 board and senior management but it only seems to be Potter or Uliel who represent the company publicly. [Correct. This is common to have a face or two of a company doing interviews. The lady who did environmental study did represent company but not in interview only in writing and by producing a document which is now online. Musk is the usual face of Tesla. Tesco CEO is similar. Key BoD members (or press secretaries) usually do the live interviews. Not all of them]

Sharetalk link a few minutes ago appears to be wrong. This one works https://www.share-talk.com/bahamas-petroleum-co-bpc-l-convertible-note-funding-update/#gs.j1n0ks

Rossannan: If you really do have 1m shares in BPC and 250,000 exotic CFDs....
1. Why the constant negativity?
2. Why create a subject line so ridiculous and keep replying to it?

No sane person would bad-mouth their own shares!

CERP had debt. BPC paid it off. CERP payroll is no more and is part of a slightly larger BPC one. CERP run out of investment money. BPC will have this money. The BPC BoD are not idiots and would not have merged with CERP without doing sue dili. If just one on the many ex-CERP assets such as Saffron 2 or Suriname meets expectations.............shareholders will do well.

ooops. In my news list updated this morning I keep forgetting to add Suriname. Refer to update RNS from just over 1 year ago. BPC will get a percentage of all its back-costs and production sharing. https://www.investegate.co.uk/columbus-energy-res--cerp-/rns/new-country-entry---weg-naar-zee-block--suriname/201910040700037433O/ . Perhaps this is one of the 'imminent news' items we are waiting an update on. I'm liking ex-CERP assets more and more.

27. 'M' Suriname. JV with Staatsolie. 24 million boe STOIIP

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

JConchy: I agree with many of your posts, however respectfully disagree Trinidad is an irrelevant side-show for the following reasons:

1. A key justification for the merger was to create more interest with institutional investors such as pension funds.

2. If they agree with the BPC BoD's ex-CERP asset goal of $15m net profit by end of 2021, IIs will consider the investment fully hedged in the event Percy-1 is a duster. With a huge ROI if Percy-1 is a gusher.

3. However some IIs, fat cats and whales are possibly waiting for... (a) an update involving ex-CERP assets including a competent persons' report of probable reserves. (b) Saffron 1 and 2 developments. (c) Final funding news. Although BPC has the cash to drill Percy-1, at this time it doesn't appear to have the capex to develop ex-CERP assets unless by JV.

Ex-CERP assets are relevant pre-spud for hedging purposes and very relevant if Percy-1 is a duster. It is IIs that could create a surge in the SP prior to spud. BPC LTHs know and the markets know that the SP has sometimes moved substantially with relatively low volumes if a whale is in the water. Refer to https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BPC.L/history?p=BPC.L.

Furthermore, we know that Trafalgar dumping c100m in August caused the SP to temporarily collapse from 3.2p to 2p. The opposite can happen when it is evident a whale is in the water. What if there is more than one whale? It is IIs that could create a surge in the SP prior to spud, some of which are awaiting news as listed in my points above and my previous post this morning.

Good luck and ATB

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Between now and year-end, Percy-1 and ex-CERP related news is expected. IMHO those marked ‘S’ could have some impact and ‘M’ may have a MAJOR impact to SP.

Expected news
1. ‘S’ Legacy admin. Licensing updates Bahamas Gov.
2. ‘S’ Admin. Bahamas Gov sign off of the few EA issues outstanding, IF any.
3. ‘S’ Merger admin: Heritage and Staatsolie Suriname consent to the merger without exercising certain rights.
4. ‘M’ Competent person’s report: An audit of BPC's probable reserves.
5.a ‘M’ Soon after 15 November: has the £1.5m Bizzell CLN @ 2.5p been exercised? Why?
5.b ‘M’ Soon after 1 December: update for +/- $10m Stena JV option at the 10% asset or share level.
5.c ‘M’ Reserve based lending/asset mortgage based on CPR ? (News may be delayed until Jan/Feb. See points 22-24)
6. ‘M Expert opinions from Proactive, Shore Capital, Investec Bank and others on SP / Market-cap leading to spud, and if oil found. Investec purportedly stated 6p pre-spud.
7. ‘M‘ The Stena IceMax ‘is on its way……crew safe.’
8. ‘S’ ‘The Stena IceMax spudded yesterday at hh:mm local time….crew still safe.’
9. ‘MMM’ Initial interim spud updates (news may be delayed until January).

Possible or hoped for news
12. ‘MMM’ Major Oil company (or 3rd party supplier such as Haliburton) JV/farm-in. Must pay-to-play with a substantial contribution to actual c$140m (and virtual c$500m) spent until 1Q 2021.
13. ‘S’ IreneK sectioned for shorting BPC using CFDs. Her daily negativity on this BB will cease.

Ex-CERP related news which may affect the first 0.5p (first £20m market cap) of the BPC SP. Some points, courtesy of LGO-fan/in4cedros and others.
20. ‘S’ Possible deal done with Predator (PRD) for $2-$4m. (lapsed, but may materialise in future)
21. ’S’ New Contract for Goudron with better terms.
22. ‘M’ Test results from Saffron 1 (MC), and turning this into a producer.
23. ‘M’ Saffron 2 drilling updates. (CPR point 4 re-done?.... leading to RBL point 5.c and no CLN?)
24. ‘S’ Successful CO2-project.
25. ‘S’ CERP 2019 financial update. Markets already expect this to be down-beat, but H2 2020 update in same RNS, likely up-beat.
26. ‘S’ Spanish gov to refund $1m for something ex-CERP related which I can’t remember

I excluded general news such as Covid-19, PoO, Brexit, USD-GBP exchange rate. Let me know of any proposed edits to the next version.

IMHO CONVICTION strong buy leading to 15/12/20 Percy-1 spud. This is NOT a SP prediction for tomorrow or next week. All IMHO. Always DYOR and/or seek professional advice. GLA.

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/

Harel: Shalom. I welcome a PM from you so we can discuss stuff offline in next few days as we are both serious investors.

Besties,

Starchild
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/starchild/