Member Info for sportbilly1976

Post 9am, and apart from the 200k at 5.259, the rest have been buys. Could purchase at the bid for a time and now 5.338p / 5.34p

Tobin,

I suspect HL will stress the finance drives the Company here, and Graham did mention in the interview how he sees EML coming at the "bottom of the cost curve", so such grandiose and over-elaborate schemes unnecessary.
If anything, with his immediate focus on closely examining the FS and looking to use his expertise to improve it further in terms of both the costing and production efficiencies we should be looking to increase the NPV further.

The additional acreage and permit regions could significantly add to the project's attractiveness and returns too. Just need to clear the persistent seller or overhang at this level.

Confirmation of HL remaining as Exec Director

Also Interesting comments on his/the next 6 months:

finance conversations continuing
Review (and look to improve) the engineering element of the FS
Permitting due for submission in Q3 2020

All towards aim of being able to start extraction during the course of 2021!

As per his LinkedIn page he finished with Sirius in February this year

SXX were suspended on 16th March so would appear he was never employed by AAL

From the rns:

"We would like to thank Hayden for his hard work in guiding the Company to this point and his pragmatism in recognising that a different skill set will support the Company into its next phase of our development. We are pleased that he will remain with Emmerson as a Director of the Company, focusing on the financing and strategic partner discussions which are underway."

I would say as Exec

All resolutions passed. HL re-appointed, 137mln share issue agreed when required.

On with ESIA , permits and funding updates and developments now...the real catalysts to significant share price/valuation appreciation over the coming 3-6 months

The AGM agenda item to issue shares will get passed.
It is then a question of when they actually issue them and at what price.

My concern here is that in a prior interview HL mentioned that existing significant shareholders wanted to increase holdings and had asked about cash...i.e - we'd like to buy more in EML, but we don't want to play the open market game and chase up the share price (...so a nice placing would be great and the Co gets additional cash too...even though you've stated you're fully funded)

Last year, AGM on 28th May with resolution to issue 60mln shares passed.
12th July - oversubscribed placing of 60mln shares @ 3.75p announced. No discount to the then share price

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4354517-emmerson-plc-plenty-of-opportunity-over-near-and-long-term

Reasonable summary.
"Valuation and next steps
What makes the risk/reward appeal to Emmerson so great is the value upside potential of the Khemisset project going forward. As it is very early stage, it is difficult to predict the true intrinsic value of Emmerson PLC currently. However, if Emmerson were able to get the project into production, the value of company could be hundreds of millions of pounds, and this offers a large upside to the current market cap of just £36 million. Although this is for the long term, there are many near-term drivers that can also generate shareholder value. A lot of market movement is based on sentiment and rationale, and I believe that the company has the ability to provide a large stream of positive news over the coming weeks and months as it aims to move the project towards "shovel ready" status."

https://twitter.com/emmerson_plc/status/1273175110678130688
"The FS confirmed both the technical and economic viability of the sale of 1Mtpa of salt by-product produced from Khemisset. The Project produces, on average, a total of approximately 4.5Mtpa of salt by-product over the life of the mine."

https://twitter.com/emmerson_plc/status/1273166448706441216
"The central section contains nearly 150 million tonnes of additional resource, which is around 60% of the size of the FS mine plan resource. This could be accessed from the current underground mine design."

Total resource at 534mt, 9.24% K20...at $245/tonne currently....

https://twitter.com/emmerson_plc/status/1272793569611448321

Khemisset Mine Life Extension

The FS showed a 19-year LOM, was achieved using only 43% of total MRE of 537mt with an average grade of 9.24% K2O. This mine plan is concentrated in the north eastern extent of the current MRE and utilises approx 204mt of the total 537mt of resource

the other two sections shown on the Tweet have 190mt at 8.7% K20 and 143mt at 9.6% K20..
so an additional 333mt at an average of 9.09% K20...a further increase in the reource of 62

..just getting a bigger and bigger resource play and further under pins the valuation gap here currently.

NPV(8) here is $1.4bln

Given the current low interest environment...and with QE by the back door now those rates aren't going to increase for years and years, you could potentially look at reducing the NPV rate to 5%, which would take the value to circa $1.75bln

There is an element of this which reflects AAZ around 2016/17. (Big difference is there the sp was depressed due to large shareholder selling down)...but fundamental growth was outlined clearly and shareholders could see a path to significant gains.

This has the potential to be generating $250m or so per year in earnings - that opens up dividend income per year around the current share price - so a 100% investment yield from todays buy price, in addition to multiple bagger capital appreciation.

A 20 year mine life (currently before expansion)....so 5-10p a share income and your initial investment increasing 10-15x (allowing for some dilution in the financing stage). Hence why I am filling said boots as much as possible here at these levels in ISA and SIPP

150+mln shares in issue and yet just 300k traded so far....way, way under the radar

sorry...agreed...was more referring to since the spread went to 5.1/5.4

actual buy price on 100k unchanged all morning...5.17p

people do tend to buy tight spread stocks and ones where they 'see' a string of buys going through so we may get a bit more activity now

Looks like we have one MM with some stock to shift.
500k for 5.2p....550k for 5.55p

A general down day on the markets though, sp bang on the rising trend line, so a good entry point or top-up price for those looking to do so

Value the markets webinar from earlier this week now online:

https://www.valuethemarkets.com/2020/06/10/video-hayden-locke-walks-through-emmersons-huge-plans-for-khemisset-in-exclusive-webinar-eml/

The 25p is for the project AS IS.

"Now with the FS completed and detailed released, we have once again used a 12% discount
rate which already de-risked the valuation but then the project has this time been further
de-risked by 60%, which we believe properly reflects the current stage of development. This
gives a highly-risked valuation figure of US$232.28 million (£182.90 million) which equates
to 26.67p per share based on the current number of shares in issue (686,132,385) and
24.90p on a fully diluted basis (734,532,385). "

They've discounted by 60% the actual project given it is only at FS stage. ....so 63p at production stage They also have assumed a 60/40 debt/equity split of the funding.

Reduce the 40% equity portion and the sp rises due to reduced shares being issued.

I still believe with the EBITDA forecasted, this could be £1 a share by production.

Please note the AGM agenda item - proposed issuance of 137mln shares

"Resolution 5 To authorise the Directors to
(a) allot up to 137,000,000 new Ordinary Shares and"

They had similar last year to issue 60mln and did so within a month.

potentially to use as part of financing agreements/deals though to get sticky hands involved. A straight II/sig shareholder placing wouldn't be ideal....and maybe part of cause of the drop from 6p+ (20% fall...approx 20% more shares)

yep...took 100k at 5.1