Member Info for sportbilly1976

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3D-iKAXidRs

Well to get to 3% they'll need to acquire 21/22 million shares.

Crack on :) Let's see the sp respond as they get those orders filled

250k is 5.1788p, 500k is 5.2p

Email from the Company pr / Graham to those signed up. Extracts below...

"Shore Cap is broker to 110 corporate clients, with average market cap of £200m.
"As the research note makes abundantly clear, there is considerable upside in the share price...the de-icing salt co-product puts it right down in the lowest quartile of operating costs and the infrastructure at Jorf Lasfar provides ...flexibility to produce SOP from some or all of the MOP...a material advantage and upside for the project.
"As Yuen (the author of the report) himself points out, should a more reasonable gearing ratio and a share price that is not so heavily discounted at the time of financing be assume, the target price for the shares would be over 20p today..

"It is an exciting project and will likely be quite competitively sought after by strategic funders and prospective partners.
The conversations around this aspect of the financing are already underway and in earnest.

In the meantime....we expect to bring some new institutional investors on the register as they are presented with the value proposition.

https://twitter.com/HaydenLocke5/status/1319250197382299648

Hayden Locke
@HaydenLocke5
Replying to
@BigGibUK
and
@tipski_uk
UAE is actually the biggest foreign investor in Morocco. V strong ties!

https://twitter.com/HaydenLocke5/status/1319244565686222852

Bit of a rigmarole to get to Dubai, but once here it all seems pretty well business as usual.... except for the face masks! Looking forward to a couple of days of good meetings #eml

Lew - page 26 of Shore Cap's note:

"Given the above, mine access-related capex was estimated in April 2020 (as part of the FS)
at just c.US$42m (excluding mining equipment). That the same CMs (continuous miners) can subsequently be
used in gallery development and mining production obviates the need to purchase additional
mining equipment and thereby further reduces capex."

The research note on the Company website now.

Ultra, ultra conservative - almost reaching farcical in terms of the capex funding...and yet the last bit on the valuation:

"On the basis of the above, it would seem to us that Emmerson’s shares should be trading at c.3-6x the current level, i.e. c.12-24p/share.

"Supposing it turned out that Emmerson’s equity quantum required was US$150m and that this were raised at 8p/share (rather than US$195m @ 4p/share), our FY2021F valuation would be c.82% higher at 26.7p/share

Graham presenting yesterday:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pszBGpsx43w&feature=youtu.be

Associated slides now on the Company website too:

https://www.emmersonplc.com/investors/corporate-documents/

Research note going on their website today

https://twitter.com/HaydenLocke5/status/1317054383981535232

"Comprehensive research by Yuen Low of ShoreCap. Has #EML’s Khemisset Project as THE standout project among all Potash projects (SOP incl) and he provides a rigorous analytical basis for this claim. While SOP is getting the attention, a world class project flies below the radar...

"Yuen believes #eml should be trading 3-6x higher today, based on how our peers are trading... One of the reasons investors like Yuen’s research is he is ultra conservative in his analytical approach and assumptions...

"Notwithstanding this conservative approach, he still has #EML with an NAV/share of 13.9p.... which Yuen further takes a haircut to to get to his price target. If a few things go our way to offset some of that conservatism? The price target very quickly rises to 26.7p!!!

https://twitter.com/emmerson_plc/status/1315980803361443840

Emmerson PLC
@emmerson_plc
Favourable Fiscal Regime

Nominal royalties

5 year tax holiday new mining projects

50% reduction income tax exported products

Government investment of 5% of total capex for external infrastructure and 20% of land acquisition cost

Government contribute 20% to training costs

A BB posting every 10 seconds is not a guide to a good stock...indeed, in some respects it is an inverse relationship

Align's June 2020 research note has a steady state EBITDA of $307mln.

Expanding the shares in issue to 1bln with capex financing and this gets us to a target price of £2.36 using a Fx of 1.3

http://www.alignresearch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Emmerson_Align_Update_June_2020.pdf
(page 15)

Hayden with a couple of tweets this morning:

https://twitter.com/HaydenLocke5/status/1315574157430738944

What investors often fail to recognise is, when in production, Potash companies trade at significant premiums. Here is the last 10yrs EV/EBITDA for Potash producers @ 10x on average. Based on Feas Stud, #EML potash proj is worth US$3bn+. Plus we have a US$500m salt project!

Replying to
@HaydenLocke5
Compare that to diversified miners, trading at 4-6 EBITDA at best. The market will wake up to this at some point. Just a matter of time. It helps that potash prices are improving too.

so just the 240% increase on the current sp then for fair value at this stage in the project?

37p

yep...can be an ISA millionaire no problem ...all tax free

if you take some out though you can only put £20k in in one tax year, so if you have already filled your allowance you can't return it back into the ISA until next April

NT for 75,000 and lower, 4.6p for anything over (250k is 4.678p)

250k to sell is 4.38p

shortage of stock, hold and/or top-up

10,000 shares max at 4.5p, NT for over

4.6p for 100k

any overhang gone now hopefully

MM shut the door now...cannot buy at 4.3

This will be the catalyst for a significant share price re-rate imo