Member Info for sportbilly1976

Remember as well there could be offtake agreements to aid the funding gap

the 60% was at $230mln...he then mentions the range $230-270mln..so with the Govt element it might only be $30-40mln required...keep the shares in issue under 1bln

Latest interview I refer to:

https://twitter.com/emmerson_plc/status/1232285422434312193

https://t.co/8cmxaiCgJn?amp=1

10yen,
I'm looking and referencing the research note from Shard Capital here as their target pre-FS (i.e. on submission) was for around 22p...happily take 15p or so currently :)
This, from Hayden's latest interview could be in as little as 4-6 weeks (early Q2 now is his expectation)...and then on through the completion of financing which will really monetise and put a value to EML
For a 6-12 month target, I'm looking to add a "0" to the current share price...so a 10x return from here with good progress

Whilst they do have holdings....top-ups at this level surely must look attractive to them?

Well you're getting yourself the bargain of the year topping up at todays prices!!

https://twitter.com/emmerson_plc/status/1232337324744355840

to me it is the reporting of a worked sell over the past few days.

MM's happy to therefore sell to you/me at 4.64-4.7p offloading the 4.6p sell they absorbed. The recent discount to quoted offer exemplifies this.

Great news this am, potential FS to come within 6 weeks, recall Shard had a valuation and price target off 22p for EML on submission of the FS

That depends if it is a cash or shares purchase.
Cash purchase - share re-rate to the buy price (-ish) and you can sell .....shares transaction and there will be a ratio of acquirer shares to EUA shares (say 1:5 and a current £1 share price = 20p per EUA share). Obviously this is more volatile as the acquirer's share price could drop post announcement and hence the value of EUA would also fall pro-rata. Likewise though it could rise.
Then you have the option to sell or hold and receive the equivalent number of acquirers shares for your EUA holding

Article from Proactive, linked on the EML Twitter feed (no mention of EML though, but SXX which is about to go into admin by all accounts - and it's share price)

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/214884/bhp-upbeat-on-outlook-for-fertiliser-knock-on-effects-for-sirius-could-be-positive-214884.html

Mike,

Emmerson have a main market listing, not AIM....the valuation gap will close as the FS date/submission approaches

Posted earlier on the A.dvf.n forum, but a comparison of EML's current and potential near-term value to other potash miners:

Sifting through old Highfields reports, the November 2014 (A$0.55) share price reflected a market cap of 5% of the combined NPV 10 of the 3 projects at the time, all at scoping study stage (USD 2.169 billion @ AUDUSD 0.82 at the time, 252 million shares). When the FS for Muga came through in Mar 2015, share price shot up to $2.00 or 28% of the project portfolio.

Applying the same multipliers for EML:
At scoping stage....5% NPV10 gives either 6p or 10p (depending upon whether you use the $1.1bln or updated $1.8bln).
Bringing this forward to the FS stage then the value increases to either 35p or 56p (again depending on whether using the $1.1bln or $1.8bln)

So, give the FS is ahead of schedule...within the next 3 months we could be looking at anywhere between a 7x and 11x return on current buy prices!

Twitter page update:

https://twitter.com/emmerson_plc/status/1229317087304306690

"...Feasibility study ..remains ahead of schedule.." It was due H1 2020, so maybe April/May?

https://twitter.com/emmerson_plc/status/1227940989547024384

"Road connection design and costing completed - total budgeted cost for construction of access roads via the A2 toll road is approximately US$2.0m including a 15% contingency.

No requirement to construct expensive rail connections.

#EML #Khemisset #Morocco #Potash #Salt #SOP"

Following on from the post yesterday re short positions:

TrickyDickyTwo

Posts: 6,354
Price: 7.20
No Opinion

RE: ShortersTue 13:16
Close of business January 2020 22,150,685 Eurasia shares were out on loan.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/rrwlquxntzr97tc/2020_01%20eurasia.pdf?dl=0
TDT

I had a quick look on IG re short spreadbets:
88% of IG client accounts with open positions in this market expect the price to rise
12% of IG client accounts with open positions in this market expect the price to fall

51 – 250 IG client accounts have open positions in this market

No idea of the exposure IG have here in total...but considering the margin requirements:

Margin requirements
Your aggregate position in this market will be margined in the following tiers:

Tier Position size (GBP) Deposit Factor
1 0 - 22472 25%
2 22472 - 44944 40%
3 44944 - 67416 60%
4 67416 + 75%

It is not unreasonable to see some shorters have a few £k per penny (after all it was 7-8p, max gain was back to around the 3p mark in reality given the mine go ahead etc)

Any offer >£1bln is seeing margin requirement in the 10s £k being asked

mkt cap currently £200mln /$250mln or so. So 7p for every additional £200mln / $250mln :)

Just be wary - it was not an entirely independent valuation...it was commissioned and paid for by the Company

That said, I do feel it was commissioned to put out there a price range for which they would consider offers (allowing for a slight discount maybe)

Agree - these are the shares we invest for. Im here and also EML, which I feel could have a similar return from the current 5p level over the next 12-18 months

Quick calc (very approx)...from the $50mln debt to $20mln cash in 5 years equates to an extra 3 cents per annum in dividend now being available

could well be...or a holding update rns

note the press speculation over the weekend...can confirm bids...share remain suspended whilst negotiations are ongoing etc??

Tommy,
Board dismiss it as not fundamentally undervaluing the assets , urging shareholders to do nothing.