Member Info for spoon_key

Sandgrounded thats the issue with these boards you dare not say anything with a negative outlook even if its for cautious or possible other outcome reasons or you're defined as all sorts, there is zero wrong in saying people should be cautious as none of us know the 5% outcome so just thinking its going to be a high figure is stupid. Hundreds of millions for the 5% was bandied about a year or so ago but far lower predictions are now mentioned proving its all guess work and until its out its all we can do but imo its only sensible to expect any outcome and hope for the best its on the higher end.

I understand why quite a few are sick of the 5% convos and just want it all over and done with but I do get the feeling some are so scared of their investment they feel the need to defend it at every single turn, they don't want to hear possible negative outcomes, again I understand that stance but its such a dangerous stance to have, what exactly is wrong with saying the 5% might not be what some expect? Don't answer as its obvious why!

Btw no I still dont hold and no I'm not wanting the sp to go down to buy in, I've made my decision that should I choose to buy in it will be after the 5% decision no matter the outcome and YES i actually would like it to be a nice high figure that surprises all as its great to read stories of people doing well.

A side point about the shorting issue and when they have to buy back they will struggle to do so meaning the sp will shoot up, what if the 5% is on lower end estimate does that not mean people will sell and the shorters will then buy up those shares? On no another negative point of view so must mean I want in cheap or maybe its just me having yet another opinion that will more than likely be wrong?

Imo I don't think £2 is anywhere near the top, Russia probably cannot wait until winter to kick in as thats when the real fun begins as I honestly do think this is when they will do their best to punish the sanction makers by stopping gas flows to the EU. Also dont forget quite a few countries saying they will end Russian oil independence before end of year, yea good luck with that! its either the EU will suffer or sanctions will have to be reversed or the whole economy will head into a tailspin.

The whole thing is a sh*tshow, the question is for what purpose?

Just wanted to say I am NOT defending whats happening in Ukraine, anyone dying due to man made war is what makes the human race the most toxic thing ever!

I mentioned a while ago about the change from the 100 to the 250 and for me the next month or two is going to be interesting to see if the sp does do what it has done in the past when this has happened i.e go up over a period of time?

Only issue I have is I'm just not sure where the economy is going, its all just doom and gloom so things could get alot worse before things do finally turn around, again time will tell so patience is the key for me for now.

Why so big? Thats all :)

Dip666 thanks for the reply I'll do what you say and hopefully learn a bit more, I'm sure you can see why I got a bit antsy with some of the comments but nevermind its all good :)

Bedtime for real!

Sorry just a quick response to TimberTrader, I agree that the 25% is a whole different issue, me trying to mess with calcs re the 5% was just me trying to get a grasp on the PFS, NPV etc and if it can be used, nothing more nothing less. I just have an issue with it being said we cannot talk about the 5% or even try to work it out because theres to many unknowns but its fine to do so regarding tonnage, gold oz and anything else aslong as its positive.

Anyway I'm way to tired so I'll leave it there, I hope the sp flies tomoz and this board can cheer itself up :)

Spades appreciate the reply but I still disagree in this whole research thing, surely coming on this board asking questions is research? Ok maybe have at least some basic knowledge of GGP but wheres the line in how much info you have which then allows you to ask questions? Teachers teach kids the same stuff every year, if we didn't have them here would the world be?

Redirons I just smh!

Lebugue if theres anyone talking rubbish its you, saying I'm trying to rubbish GGP when my calcs where actually 1.7p more than the brokers just shows how stupid that comment reads, I hope you've emailed the brokers to tell them they are rubbish. I know the game you are playing, I know the games played on these boards but I dont mind I get it, when money is involved in turns people into "Numpties" These boards prove that as fact. Also saying no one wants to talk fundamentals with me when in actual fact Malva did exactly that as have others shows yet again its you who speaks rubbish, you can tar me with any brush you want I dont mind, I'm thick skinned (yea yea thick headed more like) I just find it very interesting you lot turned this into yet another toxic thread so remind me please, who exactly are the trolls on this board?

SharketMare appreciate the comments and agree with everything you said, they cant shut me down I have a family who try to do that! I just find it very interesting they dont want to yet again talk 5% yet want to talk shorters, manipulation on a daily basis! Are they scares of figures? From what I understand theres nothing to be scared of is there? Oh is that a deramp, nope its an snide comment :)

I just want to apologise to Malva and anyone else who was actually interested in reading about the 5% yet again, its a shame it was turned into a negative thread by those who probably deem themselves GGP diehards! I appreciated Malvas input very much and just hope people just take note of what exactly happened in this thread and who by and dont be put off to ask question or give opinions, eff em if they dont like it cos its repetitive its your money thats at stake!

Ramble over, just want to end with I hold no ill will to Red, LA or anyone else, I actually want to see you all do well, its nice to see people do good, its how things should be.

"Brilliant post LB-A and hopefully clarifies once and for all the banality of trying to calculate anything to do with Hav"

If thats the case I suggest you tell people et all to stop posting their calcs on how much gold is down there as there is still to many unknowns!

Red fair point in regards to your green bin comment, my point was that it all you seem to read on these boards is green bin this green bin that when something is said that makes GGP look in anyway not as positive as some want it to be, but again I do understand you point about why some green bin due to obvious posters just posting stuff to get reactions.

BUT..

"or they are so unresearched they question things that have already been addressed or conversed as you put it."

This comment I dont agree with what so ever, what you are basically saying is that anyone who visits this board should already know everything there is to know about GGP and NOT ask any questions that may have been asked a millions times! How is anyone who visits this board supposed to find out info if they dare not ask or talk about certain topics because they have been discussed to death? Do you want them to read back tens of thousands of messages to do so? If so the thing they would learn the most about is the word shorter! Dyor can also mean visiting these boards, asking questions no matter how they come across and putting your own pov across if you feel like it.

"I know not or care not which category you fall into"

I simply fall into this category, I neither ramper or deramper, if I have a question I'll ask no matter how it sounds, if i want to try to work something out that may help others I'll do so even if that means me looking like a fool because someone else has destroyed my calcs, its called learning. I like seeing people do well but I dont like seeing people being mugged off to allow those same people to do well, if everyone could just be civil and help out it would be a far better place but I haven't missed the fact that this thread which started very amicable has now turned sour because some of you think the 5% has been "Done to the death" OR maybe is it because the numbers that have been mentioned don't look so as rampy as some want them to be, funny thing about that is both Malvas and my calcs are more positive than the brokers! Strange that eh!

Lebugue

"the valuation of the 5% has no bearing on the remaining 25% from an SP perspective and it would be de-ramping to suggest otherwise, so I guess we can knock that on the head." Who said it did? Me working out the 5% or 30% is purely based on the PFS & upgraded MRE from GGP and does not include anything else of which there is so much.

"In terms of the valuation we do not know what the JV agreement says so we can't speculate otherwise." Thats one of the main thing these boards do, speculate on what outcomes can happen if this or that happens some of which is based on info from the company. The stupid thing is I agree with you in a sense that theres no point because its all guesswork but why should that stop us from trying to do so, these boards would be dead otherwise!

Anyway you lot can carry on turning what was supposed to be a decent topic into something different. its what happens :)

Hi Jiffy

I didn't do 5% of 30% I did 5% of the PFS and then showed (Admittedly not very well) that I then multiplied it by 6 because 5 goes into 30 6 times :)

Jiffy this next part is not a dig at you but I wish people would just actually do the calcs themselves and then maybe they would see what I done was correct (I think ;) ) in the sense of the workings out, I'm probably majorly of the mark with the final figure when the 5% is done and dusted and if so why not have a go yourselves to see but surely these threads are far better than everyone just arguing?

As for the comment about the 5% topic being exhausted I'm in total agreement with Malva in that why is it ok to mention shorts this shorts that every week since the dawn of time but not the 5%, is that not a bit hypocritical? Btw I dont care in the slightest how many times shorting is mentioned I just bypass the convo if I'm not interested, the same goes for people who "Green bin" Anyone and everyone because they are saying things that doesn't sound as positive as is only allowed on these boards! Also what if a new potential investor comes to the board asking about GGP and then asks about the 5%, do they then get shot down because the convos already been done a million times?

If people want to chat about anything linked to GGP no matter how many times its been then then let them do so or even better still join in and make a good convo, its how we all learn :)

Have a good rest of the day

Hi Malva, many thanks for the indepth reply its much appreciated, its also nice to see that the convo wasn't turned into something negative board wise, I took Auroras post as tongue in cheek and I'm interested to see what their pov is?

I hope you don't mind but I read back over your convos with a few of the other informative posters on here and found them really interesting so thanks to all involved for that, I only done so due to you mentioning you had already had a convo about this so wanted to take a look. I haven't read the board much lately so missed the convo you had with Bamps a week or so ago which more or less answered my actual question! I'll be honest and was getting lost when reading your calcs as it looked like you were adding the $397 twice but when I done them myself the final total was the same, is this just a typo on your part or am I reading it wrong? I'm very tired btw so apologies if I'm coming across as thick!

"Adjusted NCM NPV ((228 x 1.5) + 397) = 342 + 397 = $739m. 5% = $36.95m.
Adjusted GGP NPV (508 x 1.5) + 397 = 762 + 397 = $1.159bn. 5% = $57.95m."

Again many thanks and please keep replying and posting to these kinds of threads as these imo help people understand Hav and GGP far more than some of the stuff posted even if it comes across as more "conservative" than some posts! Point being months ago figures in the hundreds of millions for the 5% were quoted and unless I'm mistaken (Probably am) I cannot remember any posts to mention why this may not be the case with calcs to explain why? Is this a case of us being so far of the mark with the calcs regarding the 5% or those figures back then being overly optimistic? I suppose the answer to that is time will tell when the 5% is finally done and dusted.

Thanks again

Wait a min lol while I agree I am not qualified neither is anyone else on here yet they seem to be able to tell us all what HAV/GGP is worth without any calcs! Unfair much? ;)

Night Aurora :)

Maybe p i s h but why?

Did anyone ever try to work out what the 5% could be based on the PFS's released by NCM and GGP? I'm honest enough to admit I still don't understand what exactly the PFS tells us but can they can be used to give an indication of the value of 5%?

So just to put the cat among the pigeons and hopefully get a response from someone who can explain it all better I've added the below very basic calcs. Its not a ramp/deramp or anything untoward its literally just me trying to coax someone into helping oh and just for clarity I DON'T own!

The PFS's were both based on 1.6moz POR but GGP has since updated to 2.4moz POR

So..

NCMs showed an NPV of $228 million (£186m)/5% = $11.4m (£9.3m) or 2.4 moz = £13.95m
GGPs showed an NPV of $508 million (£415m)/5% = $25.4m (£20.75m) or 2.4 moz = £31.125m

So..

NCM - 15/2.4x13.95x6 = £523m/4.2b shares = 12.4p
GGP - 15/2.4x31.125x6 = £1167m/4.2b shares = 27.7p!

Calcs I used were as follows.
15 = 15moz
2.4 = 2.4moz
x by the figures for 2.4
x 6 (30%/5%)
x shares in issue

The brokers state 25p/26p based on 15moz (I think?) which is why I use 15moz as the figure so its interesting to see that GGP's sp prediction from the brokers is close to the calcs above!

So using my very basic calcs will GGP get in the region of £30m for the 5% based on the updated figures from GGP.

Look I know this comes across as a deramp due to the £30m 5% figure so please feel free to destroy my figures but please only do so by providing your own calcs and explain where I might have gone wrong.

Thanks

I think it could be a tracker fund having to sell due to ITV being moved from the FTSE 100 to the 250 which is why the next few weeks will be interesting to see how much buying occurs by funds who track the 250?

Surely if the majority of those millions of shares sold today were bought back by JPM then this would negate the supposed massive rise from JPM having to close their short? Obviously there would no longer be a major short on the share which would be a good thing but hasn't it always been mentioned that when the short has to close the sp will rocket due to them having to buy back millions over a period of time? Thats how I understand it anyway, maybe someone can clarify? Thanks

Clued the whole monetary system is a sh*tshow, one thing I dont understand though is when some say the worst wont happen and its just scaremongering etc and there wont be some major life changing crash. Look what happened in 1929 funnily enough a few years after the last pandemic, that crash was way worse than 2007/8! Point being things can and do go real bad and maybe we will all sadly be the ones who get to see it happen right in front of our eyes just like Covid! I hope we don't btw but there comes a time when things just cant be fixed or powers change hands which can cause major disastrous resets! However maybe just maybe none of us have a clue and things will get a little worse then things get a whole lot better :)

Either way I just hope you are all safe and well no matter what lies ahead.

Tom I gather you mean FTSE 250 when you mention second tier? I posted the below on ADVFN a while ago regarding promotions and demotions so it will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks assuming the everything collapse doesn't happen in the mean time lol! I do think we are all in for some interesting times in the coming months and not in a good way, I just hope its not as bad as some say it could be!

"The demotion from the FTSE 100 to the 250 sometimes bodes well for shares, the last time this happened to ITV in 2020 it went from in the region of 60p to £1.30 in 10 months and in 2008 when it was demoted it was in the region of 40p and went to 90p, it did drop lower before that though. When it was reinstated to the FTSE 100 again in 2011 it dropped to about 60p over a short period of time thus not as beneficial as some might have assumed.

Also before anyone chimes in, financial situations in those times can directly affect share prices so need to be taken into consideration.

Point being is that demotion to the FTSE 250 can sometimes benefit and promotion can sometimes not be what some assume! Only time will tell what will happen this time."

Will joining the FTSE 250 not mean tracker funds buying in? Can they buy before joining? Thanks