Member Info for Spikeyj

et voila.

papucel, TR64’s profile still exists on LSE’s site - it has not
been deleted. so i expect he will be back soon. (probably
just ‘asked ‘to take a short break from posting by admin.)

they also vary according to whether you get your injection from an
attractive young nurse wearing a proper uniform, or someone more
like hugh bonneville in a boiler suit. (pleased to say i had the former.)

different vaccines have different strengths and weaknesses.

e.g. efficacy in preventing hospitalisation in different age cohorts,
e.g. efficacy in preventing death in different age cohorts / other groups,
e.g. efficacy in preventing transmission in different age cohorts (little data!)
e.g. cost, consistency & feasibility to produce, store and deliver,
e.g. duration of immunity provided for different population groups,
e.g. time, ease and expense needed to re-adjust for new variants.
e.g. side effect profiles,
e.g. robustness & existence, or otherwise, of supply chains in different regions,

.... to name a few relevant dimensions.

the AZN vaccine seems to score well on some of those aspects,
less so on others. ... but that whole range of factors does matter.

toff: “Is that because their Covid vaccine has been a disappointment financially?”

AZN have said, repeatedly, clearly and publicly from the outset, that they will
be manufacturing & supplying oxford/AZN vaccine on a * not-for-profit * basis.

so unless they are somehow managing to sell it at a significant ongoing
loss for every dose [not impossible, i suppose!], it’s a bit hard to see how
there would be a financial ‘disappointment’ regarding the AZN vaccine?

i have no idea if it’s selling from those warrants or not. but of course,
anyone holding long dated 4p warrants has an easy free play of selling
shares corresponding to the delta (/hedge ratio) on any price uptick, &
then buying them back on a downtick, over and over and over again -
anyone owning long-term volatility should be trying to trade the whip
as actively as they can to maximise the value of their equity warrants .
(& the delta changes more rapidly when price is around the strike.)

my point in raising the warrant issue earlier was really more about
highlighting that there are loads of people out there with bunches
of ADME shares that they will be only too happy to offload if they can
find bids. ... no need to invoke spectres of ‘market manipulation’ or
similar when there’s a fall of a few percent from some trading types
trying to offload onto an illiquid and stale market. from time to time,
certain peeps will say about ADME that there’s a small free float, or that
shares are held tightly, ‘in sticky hands’ etc, but that’s nonsense. - and
there are plenty of would-be traders stuck in this share and going stale,
who bought in on whispers about deal flow, trafigura, yada-yada, but
very little has actually happened. naturally, as time wears on, peeps look
around them and see that they are at risk of being left holding the baby.

cash position at ADME is v poor, so another placing soonish does seem
pretty likely to me. i don’t know if that’s what the current wave of sells
is about, but plausible. sure, this company does produce & sell some oil,
but all the cash from that continues to disappear down the gaping black
hole of the project debt, and the BoD never seems to offer clarity about
just how much more ADME needs to pay to eliminate that project debt —-
there is a curious ongoing absence of transparency about that figure, which
should be very straightforward for BoD to communicate, if they wanted to.

so the company pumps oil but does not retain that cash. it continues to pay
whopping sums every month for BoD renumeration and ‘admin expenses’, &
it does not have any other source of cash coming in. BoD happily talks about
curbing operating expenses, but not a dicky bird about reducing ‘admin’ costs.

so more cash needs to be found to keep the BoD in caviar and truffles,
and more cash would need to be found from somewhere to pay for new
deep water well drilling, signature bonuses, etc. ... certain peeps keep
trumpeting non-binding trafigura MOU as though it was pre-approved
for ADME to draw on at nil or minimal cost ... but that is not true; zero
funding from trafigura has been pre-approved as yet, and no info is
available about how much trafigura will charge for any funding; they
are in a much stronger negotiating position than ADME, so pis should
not expect trafigura to do ADME favours just for the fun of it. ... ajmho.

bought some. thank you mr market.

... turning into a bit of a scramble.

looking at the returns on this share over the last few years, i think
they have earned their money and i wish them a long and happy
retirement. no problem by me if people get paid well for success.

hi seaking, if you like asia, & you’re happy to think about
a 2-4 year investment frame, prudential probably well
worth a look as it approaches the unbundling of jackson?

if you think AV is such a “plodding stock” now, would it not make more sense
for you to sell now, at this price, & use the money to buy into another equity
that you think is likely to make more rapid progress that the AV share price?

i can’t spot any other RNS relating to those 4p warrants being exercised
(tho’ there were some later RNSs about other warrants exercised at 2.4p).

so that appears to leave almost 6 million 4p warrants still overhanging,
which can be exercised up until april 2024. - unless of course there has
been a failure to RNS further exercises, for some reason? - or unless i
have overlooked other RNSs which state those 6 million exercised? ( - if
anyone else can spot such RNSs, then please do point them out, thanks!)

125,000 exercised on 29/8/19.

1.8 million exercise declared on 19/6/19. (after 100:1 consolidation)

800,000,000 warrants, at 0.04p per share (pre-consolidation) issued
in april 2019, with a *five* year term (!) .... just how many of those have
been accounted for so far, through RNS(s) giving notification of exercise?

everything seems more lax on AIM (not just re ADME).

poor old FCA is still trying to investigate the ‘strange’ massive volume
trading & s/p spikes on WRN from years ago (a main market share).
... it is ludicrous to think FCA would spend time and resources they
simply don’t have looking at these tiny volumes traded in ADME &
related *small* s/p drift. frankly, what’s the issue? ... a fairly trivial
volumes of shares are being sold, resulting in small, single digit %
share price changes. - that is pretty much just background ‘noise’
on a tiny cap, illiquid, nigerian oil focused AIM tiddler like this one,
particularly one that’s had so little meaningful newsflow for so long.

not as if someone is pumping the price up or down by 20/30%, is it?

speaking of things being ‘lax’ on AIM, i am still curious about
what happened to the sheikh’s millions of 4p warrants .... either
he still has them, or (more likely imv) they were exercised long
ago but no RNS was ever issued to notify the market about that.

that non-binding MOU does not set out what kind of terms (e.g maturity,
coupon, conversion exercise rate, etc) would apply. ...so although i can
see why you want to portray those potential CLNs in very benign terms,
as that suits your book, it is equally possible imo that they will be much
more towards death spiral end of financing. (meanwhile, ADME continues
with high cashburn, still paying off project debt. placing needed soon, imo.)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/breaking-up-is-the-right-thing-to-do-at-prudential-t5ngz6fhk?shareToken=5adba4d9b13d9289be75d3251af9b1b9

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/investors-may-put-brakes-on-elon-musks-bitcoin-sprees-at-tesla-6wvqfkh9q?shareToken=84e696a2ed35022ba1154d53d35f8a3a

top tip would be to use the
GSK board to discuss GSK.