Member Info for Spikeyj

"... dish dirt on honest stocks"

i am still puzzled why some GSK enthusiasts on this board are so cross with credit suisse.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/939014/gsk-will-need-to-cut-its-dividend-warns-credit-suisse-939014.html

sure, CS expressed a relatively negative outlook on the likely share performance, & they
also predicted that in the medium term they thought the dividend would be under threat
(... they predict 50p /share rather than 80p, from 2022). but CS are perfectly entitled to
make their own best guesses about what they think may happen, same as any other market
participant. and sure enough, emma walmsley subsequently said that GSK 'expects'
that it will indeed need to cut the total dividend in the medium term. so CS made what
seems like a perfectly reasonable call -- but it wasn't CS that made GSK decide the divi
will probably need to go down, and CS didn't knock 9% off the company's share price;
that's the cumulative judgement [currently] of hugely liquid global markets as a whole.

i'm fine with the idea that GSK is an 'honest stock' (well, as much as any big pharma, lol),
but being an 'honest stock', or even being a great company, doesn't mean that the share
price can't be seen as excessive relative to perceived likely future discounted cash flows, etc.

? it would make more sense imv to be critical of other brokerages/banks who failed to predict for
their customers, ahead of results presentation, that the GSK divi was under medium term threat?

aashton, three near term catalysts may be -

1) outcomes of bidding process re marginal oil fields in nigeria; it has already been very heavily
trailed by nigerian govt that everybody who took part will get something (- lucrative for them that
so many people applied, plenty of fees to govt already!) but unclear which field(s) ADME will get,
how many partners it will be sharing that with, (how many will then drop out ...), and how much
they will have to pay for the 'signature bonus'. i think quite a few of the current trader types who
are long here bought in hopes of fillip to share price when that marginal field news is released.t

2) company is running short of money, imv, so something will need to be
announced fairly soon about how they will try to prop up their cash position.

3) might announce something reoil lifting/sales from the existing two aje wells?

bought some.

(sincere apologies for double posting ... an IT glitch meant that i
thought my 14:36 post had been lost rather than posted, sorry!)

in particular, i bet that osa and his fellow directors were very glad that they did
not take part in the 16p placing in august 2019, launched soon after osa became
CEO. oddly, seems that only retail pis were unlucky enough to get caught in that.

? if you still believe that osa took part in £70,000 worth of placings, trend_trader, what
do you think happened to all the RNSs that should have mentioned those purchases?

tia.

trend_trader, did you mean in your post at 13:43, that you are under the
impression that osa himself has spent more than £70,000 on ADME shares
in placings? - if so, that seems a pretty big discrepancy, more than £50K,
from the purchases announced concerning osa via RNS... i.e. £5,000 in one
placing in august 2020, then £14,700 in a director share purchase in nov 2020.

[osa did pretty well not to take part in that chunky placing at 16p in august 2019,
didn't he!? - even though he'd recently taken over as CEO. oddly enough, it looks
like only pis got caught by that one ... according to RNS, no director participation.]

any ideas what might have happened to the RNSs concerning the other £50,000,
if you do still maintain that osa really has bought that much in placings? - thanks.

trend_trader, your post at 13:43 appears to be incorrect.

according to the published ADME RNS history,
osa did *not*take part in the placing on 12/8/19.
& osa did *not* take part in the placing on 11/9/19.

i had overlooked that osa *did* spend £5,000
in the placing of 25/8/20 (which is not shown
in the directors buy tab on the LSE site, sadly).

so that seems to make a total of £19,700 spent
on ADME shares by osa since he took over ...

but i do not see any other RSN stating that osa
has paid for shares in any other ADME placing...

please do point out other RNSs which you can see,
detailing in which other placings osa bought shares?

(i am very happy to be corrected if there
are other RNSs which I am overlooking.)

thanks

... perhaps LSE should update the information
in the tab above marked 'ADME Directors Deals'?

hands up anyone who wants to pay for the deep
water drilling of those “three new wells in 2021”?

regarding director share purchases: osa became CEO
of ADME on 15th july 2019. since he joined the BoD, in
total he has only spent £14,700 of his own money buying
shares in ADME, through a single purchase in nov 2020.

it’s worth considering what his total renumeration from ADME
has been over the last 19 months ... i.e. what % of his total pay
package does that £14,700 represent? not much... hardly a
resounding vote of confidence in his own company, imv.

papucel, unless you really want to be a day trader or frequent momentum
trader, my advice to you regarding ‘coping’ and stress management would
be to look at these boards, and similar sites, much less often... perhaps
every month, rather than every day? - only really makes sense to check
in so often if you intend to trade frequently, and for most investors that’s
a good way to lose money or severely curtail overall stock market returns.

dan, take a look at the 6 month graph. problem some folk have here is that
it’s actually been quite difficult to do large & sustained price manipulation,
particularly when one takes into account bid/ask spreads needed to deal.
despite twitter gang activity & other such groups, and probable attempted
share price manipulation. the overall price action has been fairly limited.
the ones making money here are the people who lent short term money to
the company on very generous terms, & BoD members who are raking it in.

JKG53, yes. but toff has a bit of a thing about shorters’ conspiracies.

yup, there’s a wedge of hot money out there trying to
find a pathway from ‘covid stocks’ into ‘recovery stocks’.
... high stakes stuff, some will do very well, many won’t.

good post stewart. although i do get the logic, i think part of the issue may
be that some folks still thinking of AZN as defensive pharma, when (hopefully!!)
it is actually a growth stock, including one eye fixed very firmly on china.

debatable, i appreciate.

i think the oxford connection was that soriot and oxford regius prof bell
already knew each other from the days when they were both on the BoD
at roche. bell asked soriot to bring AZN on board to scale up, soriot agreed.

https://www.institutelm.com/resourceLibrary/what-does-astrazeneca-s-oxford-team-up-reveal-about-values.html

ooh, temper! - that’s what i already said I was presuming, yes?

but if one is thinking about trading the whip accurately, it’s the
strike price that needs to be used in calculating the hedge ratio,
not the break even point when your premium taken into account.

so the warrants are in the money at 4.2p,
but sadly you are not in profit at that level.

it sounds though like you are just playing it for direction,
rather than maximising the use of the volatility you have
purchased. fair enough, tonnacombe, each to their own.

share chat boards not school playgrounds for children...
preferable, imv, if people respect lse terms & conditions.

... wondering if toff will reply to that question earlier about the source he was
using for EPS consensus. at least that would be back on topic about the share
/ company itself, rather than back into conspiracy theories about gnomes.

happy with results today. ...used this morning’s flip up to offload my
june spreadbets on AZN, then to buy back into the longer september
maturities at small net profit, & added another 10% to overall holding.

gl all honest folks.

hi tonnacombe, thanks for the post. if you bought a 4p warrant from the sheikh,
then it is still a 4p warrant, just with a different owner. ... so they are still ‘in the
money’ at this point, as the share price is above 4p ... but presumably you mean
that you are not in profit with them currently, if one adds whatever you paid per
warrant to that 4p exercise price? ... meanwhile, if 2.6 million of them were sold
on, still leaves another 3.4 million (ish) with the original holders, given number
of warrant exercises announced so far via RNS. but i suppose it doesn’t really
matter for share price who owns the warrants, important thing is potential
investors should remember that they are still out there as part of the overhang.

may i ask, have you been trading the delta since you got them?

lol, i have never threatened anybody with libel action, neither on lse boards, nor
in ‘real life’, as it were. i have simply pointed out, in answer to TR64 wondering
why a post of his had been deleted by lse admin, that lse admin do not like posts
on these boards that could potentially be seen as defamatory. (... understandably
so, as they do not want to risk any vicarious liability if things do kick off legally.)

hence, they will generally remove those, and will ban posters if they
repeat post the problematic post. usually they issue short term ban
initially, but will ban permanently for persistent breaking of lse t&c.

it would be nice if there were more “trailblazing talented posters” on lse, sadly
most of us are just ordinary folks chewing the fat re stock market ups & downs.