Member Info for Spikeyj

results delayed, only announced by company
at the very last minute. v poor communication.

*serious* fall in production from the two aje wells.
(every year they come up with another excuse,
but those wells are deteriorating / depleting.)

no mention of any reduction in the excessive *admin expenses*.

no mention of DBI, & no mention of marginal oil field awards.

no mention at all of any date by which project debt will paid
off (presumably not until H2 2022 at best, given the expensive
short term loan that the company has had to roll-over into ‘22).

i think they are trying to hold back the full accounts until after they’ve
been able to get another placing away on the back of CPR chatter. jmv.

still on the slide…. s/p stuck in the sargasso pending something
concrete on timing re the chunky fundraising & demerger. ho-hum.

3.5 million shares sold in the last few minutes of trading this
afternoon. someone wasn’t looking forward to the results.

well, we will get to see the actual figures for admin very soon,
so let’s see how they’ve done in practice. thanks & gl dan.

i am not sure that you are remembering that rightly, dan.
i think they did talk about reducing *operating* costs by
those kind of percentages, but i don’t think they ever made
that claim about admin expenses. happy to be corrected
if you can spot some RNS or similar that shows different.

hi dan.

? where did they say that they were reducing admin
expenses significantly? - i don’t recall seeing that, my
memory must be playing tricks on me in my dotage…

tia.

(generally I’ve more been aware of them talking about reducing
operating costs, but it would be a plus for shareholders if they do
finally start taking an axe to their whopping admin expenses.)

& again.

some figures from *last year’s results*, for
comparison when new ones come out:

total number of shares for calculation of fully diluted NAV
(ordinary shares in issue + dilutive warrants) = 78, 302, 811.

combined average daily production from aje-4 & aje-5st2 = 2,967 bopd.

and also in the full results RNS last year, osa said that there were:
“… plans to triple production from 3,000 bpd to 9,000 bpd in 2021…”
[- so how are they getting on with that, then? -]

revenue = £2,519,000
operating costs = £2,444,000
‘admin’ expenses = £1,721,000 [… includes osa & BoD’s pay & perks]

loss for the year = £1,673,000
total “comprehensive income” = minus £1,945,000

we still haven’t heard anything from ADME about marginal field awards.

i think that they may well have been offered something thro’ an award
to oilbank. ? but perhaps it is just too much of a financial stretch to both
drill barracuda & work on a marginal? - any decent company would have
given shareholders some update on marginals, but hey, this is ADME!

full year results for ADME last year came out on 30th June 2020,
so the 2021 set should be due any day now. they usually try to
say something about reducing operating costs, while continuing
to *increase* the pay and perks for the BoD as ‘admin’ expenses.
so checking osa’s pay, & company’s cash position, will be of interest.

i am guessing they will next look to do another placing circa august,
probably linked with chatter about the CPR to try to bump up the
price before hand. the company’s argument usually seems to be,
look how much oil there is under the sea / under the swamp, this
must be a winner, while trying very very hard to ignore costs that
must be incurred to try to extract these, & the costs of financing.

i‘m guessing that they are unlikely to report results from a first drill
at barracuda until H1 2022, so they need to prop up the cash position
sufficiently to survive for more than six months whilst paying out plenty
to get the barracuda drill done. failure to produce from first drill at
B barracuda would present serious challenge to company as a going concern, imv.

apologies, i also meant to include this bit of his upbeat reasoning
in my previous post. (- this is where he seems to assume that the
chance of ADME being successful with first drill at barracuda is 100%.)

***
he said:

"They recently raised 2million sterling. Much of that money is being used to develope barricuda where every pound they spend they back 2.30. So if they spend the 2m on barricuda they get back 4.6 million which will then be used to drill the next well which multiplies by another 2.3 times to 10.58 and multiplies to 24.33 million on next well so on and on"

i'm interested to understand why some people remain positive about the
prospects for ADME shares, given the awful track record for this company.

so i was pleasantly surprised today when a poster on another site kindly
agree to list the reasons why he is still so enthusiastic about ADME. ...in
the interests of balance, i thought i would share his reasoning here, 'tho
obviously i don't know if this fella was actually expressing his own genuine
view (or e.g. saying something because he has been paid to ramp the shares).

he said:

"Well oil is up 3 dollars a barrel this week considering adm have 9 million barrels at aje thats a nice 27 millon uplift in value for aje alone. Well soon find out whats in barricuda could well be higher than that but for the moment well say its something similar. Thats a cool uplift of 54,000,000 in value of adms resources just this week alone and spikey is worried about 11000 in loan interest" [i've retained his original spelling and punctuation.]

me, i certainly agree that the price of oil is quite high at present, which should
be a positive for any company holding an oil asset. however i was puzzled by
the apparent assumption that ADME would definitely be successful in finding
oil at barracuda in their first drill that can then be produced in decent quantity
economically or efficiently... no-one has managed that before at barracuda over
several decades. i imagine that ADME will have a very difficult cash position as
a going concern if they don't produce much commercially from that first drill.

personally, i am also a bit puzzled that he doesn't seem to think that the
issue of umpteen warrants for financing (& rebasing of warrants) matters.

(he didn't try to claim anything positive about marginal oil fields etc.)

but anyway, if that sounds convincing, then buy, buy, buy!

meanwhile,

Leasehold campaigners welcome new changes https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57578060

500p by dec 2022 would be fine by me.
(still, many a slip ‘twixt cup & lip, etc.)

added.

dropping bombs. naughty UK navy.

added a few. not a high conviction share for me, and not enough prospects
of large capital growth to make it worth a big investment, but overall seems
pretty decent underpinning of current price from relatively predictable cash
streams, particularly at this depressed s/price from the secondary placing.

08:35, great post.

apologies, meant to post this link re PoO;

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/key-oil-spread-jumps-seven-210043089.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubHNlLmNvLnVrL1NoYXJlQ2hhdC5hc3A_U2hhcmVUaWNrZXI9QlAuJnNoYXJlPUJQ&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGqdziH0J8_NhjUoceRxlhhSaJMb9gzPsvSBvdd4rGz6EkiIFZCnd5XX-y_LOku1S8IlOS1G-Gv6PdVxfur6C6YZZ33rqd***kv-jWmzD5Nj6riN_W33mZHI1NvtOdmdeBR2uXhmEpeuP0tPujioa8cnmcAv9iIj3aXLbeEhjbZG

in the interests of balance,

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ADME:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj734C6g6zxAhULBsAKHfj4DPwQ3ecFMAB6BAgEEBI&window=MAX