Member Info for Spikeyj

“wants ales growth”

lol, that sounds more like marstons.

have added modestly to my AV position in last few days.
turbulent markets, world in a rather febrile state, so am
mostly tending to just sit and twiddle my thumbs, and
just let existing positions ride for a while, for good or ill.

dan, i honestly think this is heading towards suspension then administration unless
they can get a chunky placement away soon, & it’s v hard to see who is going to be
nuts enough to buy into yet another big placement at this point unless they are given
a whopping discount. jmho, but be careful you don’t get stuck with a 100% loss. GL.

getting rid of osa wouldn’t make much difference to their dismal asset base
and dire cash situation. ?maybe the existing BoD should offer to forego all
cash renumeration, and agree to take all their pay as warrants to exercise at
higher future share price, with guarantee the options won’t be rebased to give
them a free lunch? - at least that would help with the cash-burn, and maybe
give a degree of reassurance that BoD interests were aligned with shareholder
interests (if one was confident they had no backdoor methods for pay & perks).

don’t hold your breath waiting for it tho’.

put it this way, if YFP were building you a small maisonette in Tooting, and
ADME & the other partners shared responsibility for agreeing the various
estimates and invoices, *if* they ever actually finished building it that little
maisonette would have cost you tens of millions, and an awful lot of the
various contractors & supervisors would have got very rich in the process.

dan, being a bit cynical here, one never quite knows what arrangements
have been made in back rooms about how the money will go around. the
astonishing lack of transparency may be very handy for some folks. atb.

somebody is making very, very good money out of that ‘project level’
debt. it is where all the revenue goes, that never gets back to s/holders.
… and as you say, there is no transparency about it, never has been.

toold, i don’t think that will actually help ADME very much.

they only have production from two wells whose output is falling
significantly year on year, and all the cash from the oil sold from
those two wells just disappears into the black hold of ‘project
level debt, so ADME gets zero cash into its balances, regardless
of whether oil is $50, $60, $70, $80. ADME likes to emphasise the
potential future worth of oil and gas still in the ground that *might*
one day be extracted and sold, so in the long term a higher oil price
would be good for whoever owns the asset at that point. but in the
short and medium term, the problem ADME faces is simply how to avoid
collapsing into administration because it has going high expenditure &
commitments to fund further work, but it has **** all cash to pay for any
of those things. - so imv there is a real prospect that the company will just
suspend and collapse as a going concern, because it just can’t pay its bills.

cash, and cashflows, is the existential threat to keep your eye on here,
not the lovely future ‘potentia’ that osa wants you to keep looking at.

this company has failed to produce its audited accounts
on time, and has had to renegotiate a very expensive short
term loan, because it just can’t pay its bills otherwise. ajmho.

lol, added, but smallish and somewhat nervously…

16:53, refreshingly honest post.
hope this comes good for you, big.

greed, addicknt, greed.

a few of them will have learnt their lesson by now, but it was an
expensive one. - most of them, like hepran /fonters / neo99 /
unclemonty etc will just keep falling for the same kind of stuff
in future because they don’t want to accept that they were had.

how long ago did the FCA tell you that, cadis?

EU approval.

reduction to breakeven of US$28 was already disclosed
to market a full year ago, in the results RNS of june 2020.

these things happen, looks like superd was quite a decent investment,
but ADME are just burning too much money on all the other stuff.

wishing you and yours good luck and good health.

some moron on another discussion site is pretending to be aggrieved
that i am saying ADME has no income. but that is *not* what i am saying.

to be clear, of course ADME does still have some *revenue* (albeit a
shrinking one) from aje liftings. - but because all that money disappears
straight into the black hole of project level debt, it does not provide any
*cash* for ADME to meet its commitments falling due shortly. important to
distinguish between cash flow and cash balances, as opposed to revenue.

i am wondering what the real reason is for ADME
failing to publish its audited accounts on time.

one fairly obvious possible reason is just that they don’t
want to disclose just how bad their figures are until they
have somehow managed to get yet another placing away.

but i suppose another possibility could be that their auditors have
not agreed to sign off the accounts on a growing concern basis. (as
they have zero recurring cash coming into the accounts, high ‘admin
expenses’, and other short term commitments to fund, with the recent
very expensive loan roll-over suggesting that cash is very tight, imv.)

if so, then suspension is looming for ADME within the next 2-3 months.

(or an absolute bargain-bucket placing, accompanied by umpteen
warrants getting rebased yet again so that insider types don’t lose?)

it still seems rather odd imv. that there have been no TR1s, or any
other kind of explanation from the company, of those two recent
trades for precisely 1,176,471 shares, which were exactly the same
amounts purchased by two directors in the march 2021 placing.

funny coincidence.

oil production from the two existing wells at aje continues to fall badly.

2018 1, 200, 000 barrels
2019 890, 203 barrels
2020 698, 649 barrels

2021 ? .. not looking good ..?

(worth noting that the results RNS from 30/6/20 claimed that the fall
in oil production that year was “caused by both routine maintenance
work on the floating production storage and offloading facility (“FPSO”)
and significant equipment upgrades on the gas lift modules in the
second half of the year.” - it doesn’t look like those ‘upgrades’ helped.)

(and no mention of any progress towards that pie-in-the-sky
planned further drilling of aje to boost production in 2021 from
3000 bopd to 9000 bopd …. exposed as fantasy land, again.)

results delayed, only announced by company
at the very last minute. v poor communication.

*serious* fall in production from the two aje wells.
(every year they come up with another excuse,
but those wells are deteriorating / depleting.)

no mention of any reduction in the excessive *admin expenses*.

no mention of DBI, & no mention of marginal oil field awards.

no mention at all of any date by which project debt will paid
off (presumably not until H2 2022 at best, given the expensive
short term loan that the company has had to roll-over into ‘22).

i think they are trying to hold back the full accounts until after they’ve
been able to get another placing away on the back of CPR chatter. jmv.