Member Info for Spikeyj

i suppose the logic is that oilbank and adme would both already know if a
marginal field has been awarded, but if so, this is first & foremost to oilbank
as an ‘indigenous’ company, so adme would then need to convince oilbank
to go ahead and firm up their MOU into a substantive & binding agreement.

...presumably that shouldn’t take that long, since both had had many
months to discuss with the other, & they will have known for a few months
which marginal, if any, is being offered. but there is still presumably some
scope for a bit of brinkmanship and argument about pricing between the
two at the last minute, with each trying to get a more favourable side of the
deal. ... ADME would need oilbank, since without the indigenous partner,
ADME gets nothing. ...but oilbank needs either ADME, or a similar entity, to
give it access to the fundraising mechanisms it will need to try drilling a
piece of non-productive nigerian swamp into something that produces ...
that’s gonna cost a lot. (? there might be some scope for oilbank to ditch
ADME at this stage if ADME seems too greedy? - but that i guess that
might be fiddly, expensive & bureaucratic for oilbank to attempt lightly.)

all of the above irrelevant if oilbank got nothing. but looks a bit like
some short-term traders think they have inside information that an
award has been made, and have already bought a few chunks to sell
on a spike from an RNS about marginals as new chumps are lured in.

historically, MXO/ADME has been a very leaky share.

sorry, meant to post,

“...currently not required to RNS ...”

a poster called luckyclicker says he believes that oilbank *have* been
awarded a marginal, but with them and ADME currently not required to
while they attempt to thrash out substantive terms from previous MOU.

that might fit with some recent buys in recent days, possibly as
folk who believe (rightly or wrongly) that they have inside info
try to line up trades to dump on a spike from marginal news.

so fingers still on buzzers, above 4p needed for warrants
into the money, 4.25 bid price for placees to exit at level.

market appears underwhelmed
by their investor presentation.

17th sept 2020 ADME RNS:

“[ADME] is pleased to announce that it has formally submitted a bid with the
Nigerian Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR”) for a marginal field ...”

“Osamede Okhomina [...] said [...] I look forward to
updating shareholders as soon as practicable.”

award certificates made on monday, friday today. c’mon osa.

https://www.arise.tv/nigeria-concludes-marginal-field-bid-round-80-winners-get-award-certificates/

100% of the “beneficiaries” were “indigenous companies”.

ADME not named in these articles. either they did not win
anything, or they are being very slow to RNS material info
to market that they and others already know - rather poor.

seems 50% of those eligible bidders
handed over the wonga in the end.

https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2021/06/01/nigeria-concludes-marginal-field-bid-round-18-years-after/

.... yes, unless it is something called a ‘guaranteed stop’.
but even when these are available (very variable), you will
pay a *hefty* extra to buy the security of that guarantee,
(- as in effect they have sold you a put option - ) and it
is important to double-check the small print.... any
ordinary stop loss will just be executed at the price
the broker is able to get for you on the day, which may
be terrible if the share price has just gapped down.

from the VNH board for context, tho’ from a few month ago:

https://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/ipads-macbooks-and-doubling-steel-companies-vietnam-remains-rare-outpost-of-growth/a1461152

lol, many apologies, i was very sloppy
not re-reading the RNS, sorry for my daft post.

onwards and upwards, if a bit slower than i would like.
keeping a watchful eye on covid19 related disruption,
but appears mr market is prepared to look thro’ that.

(fingers crossed.)

RNS also tells us, they acquired their stake on 27th may ...
s[p was mid 230s at close of biz on 26th may, so possible
connection to the rise since then? - tho’ other factors around.

well, we’ve known for many months that the nigerian government
was offering to award something to *every* eligible bidder who
applied .... providing they coughed up their share of the signature
bonus! - so it would not be any surprise at all if ADME announce they
have a share in a marginal field ... as ever, issue will be, what did they
have to pay for it, what will it cost to develop, what’s it actually worth?

placees , warrant holders etc presumably watching
closely in case it gives them a spike to sell out.

sold a couple more. still long overall.

possibly ...might be worth considering the old adage about
buying on rumour, sell on news? - it was interesting to see
what happened to the mxo share price after they made
those successful bids for the mexican onshore oil assets.

... purely speculation on my part, but might fit the timings ...

?... ADME asked to pay some signature bonus for a marginal ...
... DBI utterly fails to help fund that, penny slowly drops at ADME...
... so ADME has to sell its SD shares to meet the bonus payment....
... news coming about an award of a marginal field to ADME ...?

https://guardian.ng/news/dpr-to-award-57-marginal-fields-to-oil-companies-on-monday/

company *value* [not same as] how market *prices* a share.

changes to dividend levels do affect share pricing in a way
that's not simply about projected and discounted earnings
streams, since they are relevant to some investor's appetite
& confidence in a stock. but i do agree with zac that major
market participants tend to focus on the total return over
time, not simply the payout that comes s/term from a divi.

tut-tut, ginksy you lil’ fibber! i haven’t told anyone to sell their shares
in AMDE ... i tend to assume you are all grown-ups to make your own bets.

(but my own view is unchanged; it’s a terrible company.)