Member Info for Spikeyj

“Astrazeca has the vision to redefine cancer care
and, one day, eliminate cancer as a cause of death.”

not in my lifetime for sure, but that’s a vision worth fighting for. go, AZN!

RNS today really good news. … i’ve no idea really how significant or not it is for
AZN share price, frankly, but NF1 is a seriously unpleasant condition indeed for
children and their families - anything that big pharma can produce that improves
their prospects & quality of life is a big plus. (i have plenty of friends who are fairly
hostile to the very idea of big pharma, but there’s another side to the story as this
research result shows.) well done AZN team, & i hope many more such to come.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/ADME:LON?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwj734C6g6zxAhULBsAKHfj4DPwQ3ecFMAB6BAgEEBI&window=MAX

… serious value destruction over many years.
not just in the -90% club, more the -99% club.

[i see from twitter that some folk misunderstood the RNS as meaning that
the loan had been converted into warrants instead; important to understand,
that’s not what has happened; *the full loan is still outstanding* and interest
has accrued … what has happened is that the loan has been extended rather
than repaid, & the company had to pay a pretty hefty fee - “massive”, according
to ‘anearlofwisdom’ - in additional warrants, to get the lenders to agree to that.]

back on 25th august 2020 RNS, the number of (5.5p, before “rebasing”)
warrants issued *in relation to the loan agreement* was given as 3,636,364.

but then, in march 2021, they talked about “rebasing” (to 4.25p) a rather
larger total of 4,705, 882 warrants, which appeared to include warrants
from the loan in aug 2020, but *also* apparently a whole bunch of other
warrants (unspecified, but possibly including the 909,091 “consultancy
agreement” warrants & the 120,000 “broker warrants”, per aug 2020 RNS?)

… but now with this latest roll-over of the loan, instead of using the
3,636, 364 quantity of warrants that were issued in aug 2020 as part
of the “loan facilities agreement”, they have issued 4,705, 882 new
warrants - seems like the loan terms have got way more expensive! …

.. as presumably those 120,000 broker warrants & 909,091 ‘consultancy’
warrants back in august were meant to be to do with the broader fund
raising package for £672,500 total, not simply for the £200K loan.

i note also, the £110K loan extended to june 2022 comes with an
additional interest payment of £11K, *on top of* the warrant value.
so if one priced warrants as 0.5p (- probably rather too cheap!!) that’s
annualised return c. 40%, i.e. 30% warrant value + 10% cash interest.

and of course, if ADME keeps rebasing the warrants every time they do
a lower placing, and keeps rolling over the loan agreement, the warrant
holders pretty much have a guaranteed win unless the company actually
goes bust before they can exercise, since even if this company does
terribly, the warrants just get adjusted to ever more generous terms.

seems like a serious gravy train in motion, but not for ordinary shareholders.

[figures of share & warrant issues a bit fiddly to keep track of, so happy to
be corrected if i’ve typo’d, soz, or just missed something from those RNSs.]

re dilution, it would be interesting to see next year in august 2022 if they
choose to extend these 9.4 million warrants by yet another year to 2023, again
at no cost to the warrant holders, & issue yet more new warrants to roll those
loans over. … but a lot can happen in a year, good or bad. re future dilution,
it would also be interesting to know if the exercise price will be rebased if they
do another lower placing … i.e. if ADME place at 3p in the next 2-3 months,
will these 9.4 million warrants remain at 4.25p strike, or will they become
3p warrants? (… it would help if the company RNS was clearer on that…)

good luck all honest folks.

i simply wouldn’t want to sell such a thing .. risk/reward far too
asymmetric for my taste. … would show a bid side, but not an offer.

it’s different if you are the company issuing such things, since at the end
it’s only shareholders’ money the BoD are playing with, not their own.

(personally i would certainly not sell such for only 0.5p … far too much risk
involved on small cap speculative AIM oilies which can be very volatiles,
ups & downs … so would be making a *very* wide bid/ask spread! - bear in
mind that someone owning such warrants can repeatedly trade the delta
as the share price swings around, rather than simply wait to exercise them.)

… fair point re the cash from superd …. but to me that more indicates
that the superd money is already earmarkerfor something else, and
also indicates they don’t expect to wipe out project debt anytime soon.
we will see more about the cash position etc once the accounts come out.

dan, how much would you sell a 4.25p 14 month option
on ADME for? — what would be fair value, do you think?

[presumably, if they were expecting the project level debt to be repaid
within the next new months, they should not be re-arranging this debt
on such extortionate terms for the next 6 months & 12 months, since they
they would know that some cash from aje liftings would finally be available.

… so the refinancing is a bit of a clue about ongoing project level debt…]

… anyone care to estimate what 9.41 million warrants,
strike price 4.25p, expiring in 14 months time, are worth?

( especially if they turn out to be those special magic warrants
which keep being extended by umpteen months if the holder
hasn’t yet managed to make money out of them, &/or those
special magic warrants where exercise price gets rebased if
the company has to do more fund-raising in the meantime!)

… then work out what kind of percentage return that is offering the
lenders, on £100K loaned to dec 2021, & £110K loaned to june 2022?

… debt of £210K, with average maturity circa 9 months.
cost, 9.41 million 4.25p magic warrants, 14 month expiry.

just say, purely for the sake of argument, that each of those
warrants is worth 0.5p each … that’s about £47,000 worth.

—> that’s very roughly 30% return on an annualised basis.

(£47K, for 9 months debt of £210,000).

[but of course you might think those warrants are worth more or less …
how much would you think was a fair price to sell a 14 mo 4.25p option
in ADME, if someone tried to buy one from you? - bearing in mind you
would have open-ended liability if, miraculously, ADME s/p did spike up.]

lenders doing OK, lol! - this time round they get ** 9.4 million ** 4.25p
warrants expiring august 2023, rather than just those new 4.7 million,
since the company has very generously decided to extend the expiry
date of their existing 4.7 million warrants by an extra year - effectively
doubling the cost of this loan extension. … all adds to the overhang.

but don’t forget, still that huge stack of 4.0p warrants
hanging around that were given to the sheikh (i.e. the
ones that tonnacombe said he bought a big chunk of).

goldman initiate coverage
on aviva: buy, target 500p.

(if only broker targets mattered!)

added.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/activist-cevian-capital-hints-at-aviva-board-move-gbhkmnsmv?shareToken=b3356c64573c9188d89ac031fa071a5e

happy to read and discuss stuff about ADME,
but you seem to be a bit focused on me instead.
your issue what you choose to believe, not mine.

please do feel free to post something about ADME, if you are
interested in discussing something about the company itself.

i hardly ever short anything. i prefer to look for longer-term
value in stocks rather than short-term spikes (/dips), and am
happy enough with the money i make that way, thanks.

more broadly, imv it’s not sensible to play games which others are
trying to rig, altho’ those can be interesting & informative to watch.

iphonei, you are of course very welcome to believe whatever you choose, but no,
i do not work for any shorting company (and nor i short on ADME personally.)

[for sure, i thought EUA shares were very overpriced relative to actual underlying
value, and that is *still* very much my view - the abject failure of the FSP speaks
volumes on that imv. … tho’ i do agree with TMS that the directors have been
very adroit in using that abortive FSP process to raise funds and also to facilitate
lucrative exits for some —.but off-topic for ADME, so no more from me here.]

& how lovely to see you too, olderandwiser. i’m curious, have
you looked at the share price graph for MXO/ADME, adjusted for
consolidation, from 2014 onwards?- shows very, very clearly why
any would-be punters should be very wary indeed of the pump
and dump games that have been played with this particular share
for the last 7.5 years, over and over again, with zero genuine value
created for investors over all those years. sure, I’m not an fan of this
share, but that has absolutely been the correct view for years here.

sadly, the ramping crew for ADME keep telling porkies to try
to sucker gullible new punters in … e.g. i see that ‘space robot’
over on twitter is once again lying that ADME had a “refinancing
deal completed at effectively 7p” - that is simply a bare-faced lie.

plenty of placees still trapped at 4.25p, waiting to dump when they can.

always jam tomorrow here … even with aje, they are still paying
off the project level debt - even all these years on, ADME has still not
banked a single penny profit from those two (deteriorating) wells.