Member Info for Spikeyj

the pump and dump multi-ID crew over on the other site has
been very active today, coinciding with the higher volume here.
4.25p placees can almost offload level, if rampers can keep it up
& enough new pis get sucked in by the ‘jam tomorrow’ promises.

hello iphonei, sorry to disappoint you, but i have no
connection whatsoever with adam d. or jub capital.

broker codes, complete nonsense. … (a) plenty of other ways
to communicate, (b) brokers are *opposition* for each other, not
mates trying to co-operate, and (c) as a communication channel
it would be wildly susceptible to being messed up by random /
deliberate trades from others, utterly unreliable - there would
be too much ‘noise’ on top of whatever signal there could be.

sometimes people genuinely mistake rollover trades for two big buys, if
the agreed trade prices were over the mid-point of the spread at the time
of the trade (so that both trades are printed ‘blue’, as buys.) - but it’s also
fairly common that some rampers deliberately try to misrepresent a roll-
over as two significant buys. (one of the advfn rampers is doing that today.)

(hence, share price ended slightly lower, as overall there were
very few trades today; those two rollover trades which effectively
cancelled each other out, just selling then buying back, & apart
from those trades nothing much other than about £10K sold.)

hi frobert. the kind of rollover i mean is essentially a way for a short-term
trader to buy shares on tick, when they want to make a punt on a share rising
short-term, but don’t want to (- or can’t) hand over the cash needed to do that.

instead of settling their share purchase promptly (typically within two business
days, a T2 trade), they arrange with the counterparty (/broker) that they will
pay slightly more for the shares, but don’t have to pay to settle the trade for
e.g 14 or 21 days (T14/T21 trades). the trader hopes that they can simply sell
their shares for a profit *before* they have to pay the settlement money, so
they just book a profit, but never actually have to fund their trade … their
problem comes if the s/price has not risen enough for them to sell out at a
profit - then they need to sell the shares at a loss, or pay for the shares in full
(and stay long), *OR* they do a rollover … i.e. sell the shares they haven’t
yet paid for, but promptly buy them back, again for a delayed settlement
date …effectively buying themselves another 14 or 21 days for the trade
to come good [- lol, well, so they hope!] but without handing over the cash
for their shares. brokers will co-operate with this in exchange for a little
profit that they can make through their bid/offer spreads on those trades.

(contrary to dan’s explanation, most rollovers as above will not be transfers
from one account to another, or to a different entity. they are simply a way
of buying shares on short-term credit from a broker, in order to speculate,
with the buys and sells taking place in the same name in the same account.)

rollovers typically appear as two moderately large trades booked very
close together in time, with trade prices very close together, for matched
amounts of shares. you will often see them on speculative shares such as
ADME when short-term traders are hoping for a quick in/out on some
kind of news spike, rather than investing long-term for fundamentals.

those two 600,000 ADME share trades this morning fit the description;
matched amounts, trades booked just 11 seconds apart, with the broker
making £180 profit from the total price difference between the two trades.

(i.e. £24,000 minus £23,820)

note that rollovers typically *don’t* affect the s/price much/at
all, even if the trades appear quite large, since there is actually
no net trade made — the buy & the sell simply offset each other.

those two 600K trades this morning didn’t move the price at all, hence
another clear sign of a roll-over; if someone really had *net* bought 1.2
million shares this morning, price would have moved, for a while at least.

600,000 trades are just a roll-over.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aviva-shakes-up-investment-division-0zbv3jphp?shareToken=c8dfd59f9c71b660f23037c347e733d1

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/aviva-clearout-hits-fund-managers-zfq7nsjkx?shareToken=e63298f9d751c03e1ab1f111bb067509

good spot dan!

(? but if directors have transferred shares out of their own name into some
other entity - or indeed simply sold - then shouldn’t they be issuing TR1s?)

10,500 target by dec 2022.

(soz for ramp, won’t keep
posting that, just sayin’.)

interesting late trades shown; - given amounts and timing, i suspect
could be possible roll-over, although if so unusual that broker agreed
to execute them with no price differential (lol, i suppose, that might
depend, who they were executing them for!). ...given those trades being
put through supposedly at 4.20 half an hour before the 750,000 trade,
adds an additional perspective on the 4.033 price for that subsequent deal.

looking at the prices of other trades printed before and after
10:06, spread was broadly around 3.90 - 4.20, so the £30K share
trade at 4.033 p was roughly mid-market ( slightly to the left side).

sure, somebody bought those shares dan.....but there are two
sides to every trade; they bought them from someone else who
thought that is was a better idea to sell 750,000 shares around 4p.

p&d in progress imho .... dumping shares onto gullible new punters.

dan, it’s yet another datum, like the DBI stuff, that suggests how much you
can actually rely on the accuracy, completeness and timeliness of what they
tell you - speaks to issues of communications, trustworthiness & reliability.

in that sense, it says a lot about ADME, osa and the BoD.

sure, just thinking about timing ... i think oilbank related
one is the most likely to come before accounts due out,
when we can take a look at cash balances and cash burn.

looks like next best chance may be an RNS about an agreement with
oilbank to develop a marginal field .... recent activity in trades and
elsewhere suggests some people who think they have insider information
believe that one is going to be announced (don’t know if they are right
or not). if there is such an RNS, they may well get a short spike out of it,
but the snag will be that there are already plenty of underwater long
suffering longs who will be poised hoping to get out on it quick as poss.

(a more meaningful spike could come from an RNS announcing
that trafigura have agreed to provide chunky debt funding to
drill some new wells at aje, but i don’t expect that will happen.)

hi k3.

it depends what you think they are trying to do. from the point of view
of their own personal enrichment, i think they are doing just fine, ADME
working pretty much as they wanted, & they are creaming off plenty.

from the perspective of any ordinary shareholder, this company has just
been a complete value destruction train wreck for many years and that
continues. however, osa and his mates are doing well from ADME...

i wonder why they use the term “clarification” in that RNS?
should really be “correction”. they had previously announced
something that was just straightforwardly factually wrong.

ADME making a complete mess again, as with
the fiasco regarding the DBI (non)investment.
time someone taught them the word, “apologise”.

i suppose the logic is that oilbank and adme would both already know if a
marginal field has been awarded, but if so, this is first & foremost to oilbank
as an ‘indigenous’ company, so adme would then need to convince oilbank
to go ahead and firm up their MOU into a substantive & binding agreement.

...presumably that shouldn’t take that long, since both had had many
months to discuss with the other, & they will have known for a few months
which marginal, if any, is being offered. but there is still presumably some
scope for a bit of brinkmanship and argument about pricing between the
two at the last minute, with each trying to get a more favourable side of the
deal. ... ADME would need oilbank, since without the indigenous partner,
ADME gets nothing. ...but oilbank needs either ADME, or a similar entity, to
give it access to the fundraising mechanisms it will need to try drilling a
piece of non-productive nigerian swamp into something that produces ...
that’s gonna cost a lot. (? there might be some scope for oilbank to ditch
ADME at this stage if ADME seems too greedy? - but that i guess that
might be fiddly, expensive & bureaucratic for oilbank to attempt lightly.)

all of the above irrelevant if oilbank got nothing. but looks a bit like
some short-term traders think they have inside information that an
award has been made, and have already bought a few chunks to sell
on a spike from an RNS about marginals as new chumps are lured in.

historically, MXO/ADME has been a very leaky share.