Member Info for spike501

Thar she blows!

No buybacks in the last few days - I'm sure they still have plenty of capacity, is it a lack of available volume?

With the appointment of the auditor this is the first time while I've been a holder that everything looks good with no current areas of concern - production is strong and has been very reliable, low cost funding is in place for the next stage of expansion, auditor now in place and even if I still don't like this advance payments to suppliers I doubt it will cause issues and externally gold price is strong and the outlook looks positive and Kazakhstan seems reasonably strong and is keeping Russia at arms length.

I'm sure there will always be some discount due to Kazakhstan and the ownership structure, buts even allowing for that its difficult to see why this will not re-rerate substantially in the near future. I don't see there being any dividends in financial year 2022 and probably not 2023 as this year most of the capex spend will happen, but 2024 there should be sufficient free cashflow to pay a decent amount.

I'm sure there is something just around the corner to bite me for this post, but this is now the most comfortable I have been holding.

"spike I beg to differ. Any forward looking report should have taken note of the current position and not one 6months out of date."

Fairdealer - I agree, which is exactly why I say ignore simplywallstreet. They have no obligation to do any of that, all they do is simply feed published figures into a machine and spit out a result and write a generic article based upon that result, as I say I imagine the entire article is also just automatically written. No one at simplywallstreet will have even looked at what Deltic energy does, the article would look exactly the same if Deltic was an oil and gas explorer, or if it sold ice creams.

No one at simplywallstreet has though "Ah-ha lets manipulate Deltic Energy share price", its simply a paint by numbers autogeneration.

"The article ignores the £15m cash raise end of September. Our Friends over the pond are being economical with the truth.Are they attempting to influence the SP???"

No, Deltic have not published any financial statements since the raise, hence the simplywallstreet machine doesn't know it has happened.

Its not any conspiracy, they just churn hundreds of these financials through their systems and publish these nothing articles to gain web traffic.

Its not worth looking at anything from simplywallstreet about small caps - there is zero insight into what the company actually does, it is just an automatic feed of financial numbers in to create ratios and trends and then an article is spat out based upon that - I'd assume most if not all of the article is automatically generated as well.

“Spike, what value do you place on our Nth Sea assets then? This means Liberator, Serenity and surrounding acreage. Majid used $10pb for Serenity alone, so I don't think $35-40m is a stretch. “

The value I assign to it and the price someone is prepared to pay in upfront cash are two very different things :)

I doubt there is anyone that would agree to anything other than a nominal upfront payment pre-FDP (or even first oil) with the rest being carry and earn out. North Sea is a buyers market, there are no minnows with that sort of firepower and the big players are far too savvy to splash that sort of cash around and so there is very little competitive pressure.

I think it will be a big boost for I3E if they can get the ‘threat’ of future CAPEX spend in the North Sea off the table as well as reducing costs by ditching the operatorship of it. Let EOG have another 25% to carry it to production.

“Reckon we should pick up $35-40m for them”

No chance anyway is paying that for a pre development North Sea oil prospect.

They absolutely will plug and abandon after this well test.

Sure you could do it in Canada, but how much cost savings do you have? You don't need the directors in the UK, but you would still need some sort of management team in Canada and I work on the assumption of regardless of where they are they are going to be bloated - after all turkey's don't vote for Xmas.

Tony, the UK costs include most of the corporate costs such as salaries for most of the senior directors and I'd assume things like group accounting is done out of the UK, together with most of the audit costs sitting there. So I don't think there are big savings from shutting down the UK, those corporate costs are still required.

Yep agree, those were the two specific points that stood out for me as well. I'd still rather they not focus too much time and capex on the North Sea as I don't think the North sea is doing anything for the valuation right now, but if conversations are happening and it can be an easy tie up then so be it. Personally I think I3E should look to get rid of the operatorship of Serenity at the very list - its an unnecessary administrative burden.

I have to say I agree - the wireline logging should already have given a good indication of how the reservoir compares to the model and I think that if it was coming towards the low end of the expectations then Shell wouldn't be bothering with this additional step.

Worth noting EOG gave an update today with a bit more information on Serenity

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/EOG/operational-update/15790562

In conjunction with the Company's partner i3 Energy, in 2023 Europa will continue to explore options for the development of the Serenity oil field in the Outer Moray Firth area of the North Sea (Europa working interest: 25%). The discovered reserve would likely be developed as a subsea tie-back to Repsol Sinopec's Tain Field. The field could be a unitised development which would be highly material to Europa, with net production to Europa anticipated to be circa 1,000 bopd. Further updates will be provided as development discussions between the Serenity and Tain partners progress.

"To get a better idea of what is happening look at the Shell sp, hardly moved!! "

Shell has a £160bn market cap - how much do you think a North Sea drill could ever move the SP? Idiotic post

"This has been manipulated down to 2p to let all the big boys buy in. "

No big boys are going to buy in at this stage, Delt is still a non-producing binary and the result is still too binary.Its dropped as markets have moved risk off, European gas prices have come down and Shell have been increasingly luke warm about their future participation in the North Sea due to further increased windfall taxes - its been the worst possible environment and then those share declines drive speculative investors out and it drags further on the SP.

Price action this morning has been no surprise - initial increase then pressure on the SP as speculative investors exit and take money off the table, followed by increasing strength as people realise it had been oversold and the fact that gas is confirmed means there has been a level of derisking.

You can find the resignation letter at companies house

https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/05048549/filing-history

Again I don't like the fact that this has not been RNS'd

Altyn is standard listed and I believe the only requirement is that they release audited financials within 6 months of year end, which would be June-23, so I'm not sure its anything that is imminent.

The question is can they get a replacement - BDO resigned due to the issue of advance payments and Altyn not being able to prove a lot of the information including whether there was a related party connection so which auditor will take it on with that issue?

Again though its just poor corporate governance, no information has been given to shareholders about the resignation so again any trust is eroded.

Buster - the problem with the auditor has been solved.

The auditor quit.

"Spike I think you misunderstand Majid's goals, he has already stated and again been very clear on this, whatever dividend he pays he wants to be stable at minimum"

Totally agree, which is why I think shareholders shouldn't expect any substantial increase in the monthly dividend and special divis are unlikely. The dividend payout will increase substantially in 2023 against 2022 just by keeping the monthly dividend at the same level.