Member Info for spike501

Fairdealer - I’m hoping they can swap some portion or even all of Pensacola for a producing asset. I think that could then become very interesting.

25 years was just an estimate I used for the production profile of Pensacola - I don’t believe it’s been published and that may be a but long, but given first gas would be earliest 4 years from now I doubt it will be far off.

"Timnttm, check the figures. I calculate at UK spot gas price of 109p/therm, the SP value for Pensicola is more or less 12p. Considerably more if the therm price reaches 150p.
These are projections which the market seems to have completely missed, even though an investment has been almost completely de-risked. The SP should be at least 8p"

Fair dealer, the market has missed these they are simply applying risk discounts to them. You might disagree with the size of the risk discount applied, but no one is pay 8p for something now, that they only get back over 25 years and with multiple hurdles to get through along the way.

Getting Pensacola through to production and maintain the current stake, will require 10s of millions which Deltic do not have - its not unreasonable to assume the share count will at least double before production is underway, therefore you can already cut those price per share values in half.

I'll be happier when they actually publish the appointment of the auditor with companies house - it still hasn't been done yet.

I knew this was a disaster when EmeraldCarrots showed up.

I find it vey interesting that they have put this interim facility in place - 4.5% over base doesn't seem to be the best pricing and given they are closing in on a larger full RBL facility in the next weeks and have plenty of cash on the balance sheet this facility seems unnecessary unless they are expecting an imminent large outlay.

“ With the massive 302 bcf find, I trust that Shell will have informed the UK government that the UK could be self sufficient in gas for many years.”

302bcf is about 43 days of UK consumption

Bubble - you are just the other buttcheek of that TerryMC fella.

The facts are this is a great result for Deltic and their management - they have made sizeable commerical discovery and it has proven their pre-drill model.

Its 300BCF of recoverable gas on a P50 basis, 30% net to Deltic - thats about 15million BOE equivalent. Its a great first find and massively de-risks this share, but at the same time it is not a monster field.

"so take your de-ramper agenda and stick it you know where."

Naff off Noel, your posts switch from one extreme to the other and normally you care about precision, then all of a sudden this could be the largest gas field in the North Sea which is utter nonsense.

I have no time for de-rampers or rampers - I prefer to deal in facts so stop throwing your toys out the pram that I corrected your mistake.

"Spike yes it will move onto a huge find on second drill the first was the outer range when it hits the sweet spot watch the derampers disappear like rats up a drainpipe"

GIve it a rest - Deltic have confirmed the results confirm their pre-drill model. The P50 has barely changed, the P90 has substantially increased and the P10 reduced, indicating that they have refined the model around the pre-drill estimate.

This was really an outstanding bit of work from the management team to identify the target, bring Shell in and hit bang on the money.

"What did the RNS say? This is looking as though it is one one of the biggest gas fields in the North Sea ?"

It didn't say that at all - we don't need de-rampers and we also don't need ramping statements. It is potentially one of the biggest finds in the last decade or so, but that reflects it is a mature basin so most of the huge fields have already been found.

"If the market thought it was one of the largest discoveries it would be x3 the price right now lol"

Why? what value does being the largest discovery determine? Is there some sort of minimum valuation for the word "largest"? £20million per letter or something?

"What’s everyone think of this from the rns"

It just states what Deltic have always said - they may look to monetise discoveries early, or potentally look to swap for cashflow producing assets.

"If it was one of the biggest discoveries in the Uk they would do! Especially now."

1. I don't think anyone is hiding behind the fact it is one of the largest in the last 10 years, partly as there has not been a huge amount of activity.
2. Shell are getting stick at the moment for huge profits and the investment reliefs they get - I doubt they wanted to be shouting about their involvement in the North Sea today.

"P90 has gone from 39 BcF to a whopping 164BcF so Shell are happy to put their neck on line with these figures is incredible, the minimum they believe to have here is 164BcF !!"

P90 has gone up P10 has gone down - they've just refined the model and narrowed the range. As they say its in line with pre drill expectations.

"If it was really one of the largest discoveries why haven’t Shell rns’d it lol"

Take a look through Shell RNS's and let us know the last time they have RNS'd a discovery.

Take your time.

Anyone referencing Dan Levi and Guerilla investing needs steering well clear of and anyone who thinks Pete Brailey was posting under EmeraldCarrots as Dan asserts (absolutely evidence free) had a screw loose.

"Either way I think the bod have done a stellar job on getting the company on a strong footing. It's just about finding some value catalysts now. I know debt is something that many on here fear, but when you're throwing it at relatively sure things then it's definitely your friend. AIMHO GLA"

Nothing is sure in O&G, 6 months ago, gas looked a sure thing and now prices have collapsed. Oil is fairly strong at the moment and while fundamentals seem to be good, there are substantial downside risks. The company are investing a substantial amount in CAPEX - probably more as a portion of cashflow than most comparables and I'd question how much more CAPEX the management and operational team could oversee so CAPEX expansion could well spill into OPEX expansion. Not to mention we're in a time of inflationary pressures and rising rates.

Investors want prudency and cash returns, not CAPEX blow outs and leveraging balance sheets and results would anyway take many months to come through.

I’m not expecting any increase in production this year - in the last investor presentation the step from 40k Oz pa to 60k Oz pa was in 2024 and that assumed the main capital investment occurred in 2022, so I shift everything back a year but hope I’m reality there is a graduated increase so next year pushes towards 50k.

Definitely the appointment of the auditor - with no auditor there is a risk of suspension and big corporate governance risks, now one has been appointed it removes a substantial risk.

Gold strength helps

Then there isn’t much free float so no surprise it moves quickly in either direction