Member Info for spike501

They may well decide to provide a bit of news on the drill results, but they haven't for a long time outside of standard operational updates and there is no need for them to do it as they aren't material in terms of overall production.

Buybacks do seem to make a lot of sense given the market cap against free cash flow, its a very compelling valuation and would automatically boost the dividend as shares in issue is reduced.

Based upon the timing of the previous quarterly updates it will likely come in mid August and it’s been a while since I3E released individual well updates as a standalone RNS so I assume those updates also come with the update

"Spike, keep it civil. You seem to be upset about the share price and are throwing big suggestions around about fraud and theft that you can't really back up."

Fair enough, I was responding forcefully to your "negativity parade" which is completely unjustified in the light of the seriousness of the situation.

In terms of my suggestions about fraud, let me be clear that in my view IF the company has not disclosed a related party relationship in its financial statements, especially one of this size, then that non-disclosure would be misleading and could be considered a fraudulent level of misleading - related party relations are required to be disclosed, regardless of the proper (or not) use of those funds in the background. The fact that this information was then omitted from the annual results released to the market is in my view appalling.

Negativity parade - have a day off. This has dropped over 20% today and trades at a PE of well less than 2 - why do you think that is Einstein?

If you can't see the issue with driving a coach and horses through any basic level of corporate governance by providing massive prepayments to associates, then I can't really help you. To then hide that from investors in the release of the annual report is just a massive redflag on top.

Sure it could be that they are utterly brainless in absolutely smashing any hope of getting market credibility and then were just a bit embarrassed about it - even that best case does not exactly provide a glowing business case.

Alternatively they could not give two hoots about external shareholders and instead it is just a vehicle for moving family wealth around, in which case at some point the listing is just an inconvenience that can be jettisoned when it becomes expedient to do so. Its not like there haven't been other frauds of london listed kazakh mining companies.

Regardless of what is happening, I'm here to make money and if the company does things that means no one will touch the shares with a bargepole, how am I meant to do that?

"If the intention is to steal the very small part of the asset they dont already own from shareholders, they've had years and years to do this already and haven't. Why now? "

We can speculate on all sorts of things - the fact is they have gone so far beyond what is acceptable from a corporate governance perspective that who knows what comes next. Who owns the bonds that has security on the mine?

"Fairly minimal in my view. More likely to be related party transactions lacking paperwork but not actually fraudulent."

I'd argue related party transactions that are not disclosed are fraudulent. Issues like this already scupper any chances of getting institutional capital - no one is going to stick funds into to develop, when there is no sufficient control that 6 months worth on running costs can go out to a related party with no paperwork and the board don't know about it. It might all be intended relatively innocently, but its not a good look.

What is even worse is that when they have published the annual results to the stock market on Monday, they haven't published any of the auditors comments or disclosed that the auditor has given a qualified opinion - that is terrible, its only because I bothered to see if the annual report was there I found it. I also understand now why they didn't actively notify the market of the AGM with this coming.

This will smash market confidence - I'll probably sit with what I've got as it ultimately trades at a PE of not much more than 1 - even if the market still thinks its a POS it could get up to a PE of 3, in which case I get a nice return, but equally it could languish here for ever more and not improbably I could wake up with an RNS one day and fine the share is worth nothing as they have done something else and shareholders no longer control the mine.

Worth reading the full annual report - I think its clear now why the report was delayed, the prepayments are murky to say the best. Read the qualified audit opinion

https://145908.selcdn.ru/files.altyn.uk/reports/2021/Project_Altyn_Annual_Report_2021.pdf

"I keep hearing people say that Serenity is the cherry on the top of the cake - I'm not sure I agree with that - if it lives up to expectation - its the whole pie !"

It is at production but I'm not sure what valuation will be given to an undeveloped North Sea play at least before approved FDP.

One interesting point of note - the commentary with the results highlighted a prevailing gold price of $1950 at the time of writing - the last time gold was at that level was mid-April. So it seems the results were finalized at that time but then the release for some reason delayed.

I think the difference between the gold poured and gold produced is the gold recovery rate.

All looking really good - not too much we didn't know in there but the all in cost of production was particularly good. The main new information are the CAPEX plans - they have been set out on the assumption that they don't get any debt financing, Teren-Sai is now conditional on debt and they continue on the plan to develop Sekisovskoye out of own cashflow with the majority of CAPEX being in 2023 now, instead of 2022 as previously planned as per the September presentation - can't say I have any real issue with this, it all looks pretty sensible and any new funds can be used for the Teren Sai development.

I'm certainly not part of the buy buy buy crowd - there is more poor economic data out of the UK and Europe today, a developed world recession looks increasingly likely and even with current oil tightness I think oil prices and equities can go far lower, there is a prospect of a very nasty recession.

However, this is now trading on a 7% yield and given the excess cash this is throwing off, even at lower levels, hedging in place, no substantial debt and CAPEX can be dialled back substantially if required , I'd say that dividend is fairly well protected through even an extended down cycle and ultimately it will just be a cycle.

I wouldn't be buying today expecting any rapid near term capital appreciation - there are catalysts, but without a substantial improvement in economic outlook, I'm not convinced it will come through, however as a longer term income play this does look really attractive at these levels.

"it's probably time to let them know that 80% of our current production is actually gas and gas liquids."

On a production basis maybe, but on a revenue basis oil and NGLs will be over 60% of revenues this year. Natural Gas is also falling, Henry Hub prices now at $6.70, down about 25% over the last two weeks.

Oil needs to show strength for this to start moving up again, and for oil to show strength, developed economies need to show strength which is looking less likely as inflation continues to bit and central banks try and choke it off.

Its certainly poor form not to announce the AGM via an RNS - to be honest I thought that was a listing requirement but I've not yet had chance to check the rules, but even if it wasn't its a standard announcement and given the current situation the company should have realised that it is important. Although the news of the AGM wasn't really leaked out to me, it was published on the website which i expect might be considered an acceptable way to communicate.

On the annual financials its a bit more difficult - I think you have to assume as long as there is no RNS to the contrary that the results will be released on time, the problem is that only works if investors have full trust in the communications of the company and that clearly isn't the case here. But i'm also not sure what they can say as an alternative - if they have some internal doubt they cannot communicate that they expect to release them, nor should they communicate about having doubts as that sets off panic, so ultimately as an investor you just have to accept it and decide whether to sit and take a risk.

Lets be honest here - the reason this SP is so discounted based upon both financial and asset valuation is not just generic Kazakhstan political risk, its also specifically that it is majority owned by a family with a 'colourful' past and there is a risk that the LSE listing is just for a veneer of respectability and access to flog shares if needed, but once if it becomes no longer needed then it disappears in a puff of smoke. The reason for the perceived poor communication could be that no one gives a tiny toss about shareholders and I doubt anyone thinks standard listing regulation will protect them.

However, if they can continue to execute (which they should get a lot of credit over the last 24 months) and allay any fears than clearly this is worth substantially more - if anyone from the company is reading I'd recommend sharpening up communications a bit more and notifying of an AGM via RNS should be an absolute mandatory.

Just in terms of my comment about the family being colourful, I make no allegations (I would be a fool to invest if I did), but there is public information which CEO Aidar Assaubayev discusses towards the end of the interview. I've invested on the consideration that they are in fact highly aligned with my interests which is to make a load of bunce by developing Altyn.

https://bne.eu/interview-kazakh-gold-miner-altyngold-on-a-roll-228415/?source=russia

"Spike, this all seems very odd. Do you have any idea why the final report has been delayed?"

Well technically its not delayed they have until 30th June to the release the report, although yes it is later than previous years.

I'm not convinced by the AGM theory - if the financial results are not ready then don't call the AGM. I can imagine preparing the audited financials this year has taken longer than prior years due to the political situation and the auditors wanting to be sure there are no issues with sanctions, so the process hasn't been rushed - it could well also be that the start of the audit process was delayed due to the unrest in Kazakhstan at the start of the year as well as the invasion of Ukraine.

I had left a few messages with the company over the past few days - I'm fairly sure the UK number is not Altyn but a calldesk that handles Altyn's calls. Yesterday they called me back and passed me a message from Rajinder Basra that the annual results would be released this week.

Maybe something to do with oil being down 4.5%?

Yes, confirmed to me by phone call that it will be released this week.

Details for the AGM are confirmed on the website

https://145908.selcdn.ru/files.altyn.uk/news/2022/Altyn_AGM_notice_(CL).pdf

The annual financial statements will be presented as confirmed in the above and also confirmed by the company today.

Simply Wall street FFS