Member Info for spike501

"Uncommercial to them maybe but not a duster."

The operator has just told you its dead - its over.

"If they RNS tomorrow and it’s a carbon copy of the CVN one I’d be very angry. "

Doubt they will say much more, they'll probably be some blah blag about working on new deals, but it'll all be confidential so unless they have one finalised you won't hear anything else.

"Car3y....behave yourself. I lost six figures on this stock. I have seen since last Wednesday stupid bottom feeder scum give false rays of home to people who were emotionally dry.
It was over from Wednesday .
Disgusting behaviour"

Totally agree, utter vultures.

"Seems they have ticked two out of three boxes."

They didn't need to drill to tick those two boxes, that was already known as it was a previously produced oilfield. The box that had to tick was the confirmation of an attic with a give or take 80metre oil column and this box was not ticked. None of the capex requirements will have changed, but the amount of recoverable and flow rates have been absolutely slashed which makes the prospect of raising debt to develop almost zero, Carnavon are already moving on and Advance are not an operator so can do nothing.

There is a slim chance it could be commercial for a cash rich company with necessary equipment, but they have absolutely no need to pay for this - just wait for the licence to be relinquished and then pick it up then for free.

Garyn - do you have any thoughts on the timing if the release of the interims? I think it stinks as they must have had indications that the reservoir was coming in low to prognosis at that point.

There is never a risk free O&G drill and the lower the risk, the lower the reward. I also invested here back in September/October as like the relative risk reward as it was a lower risk well, targeting a known reservoir but it was absolutely a binary bet for the company as the downside case was effectively cash valuation of the business.

The mindless ramping that goes in on these boards is terrible and its clear from the posts people do get sucked in - I posted exactly my views on this board about the risks and to be fair it was a decent board at the time, but there were still the usual muppets telling me things like I'd forgotten about the risk of sea monsters eating the rig and such like.

I place no blame in the Board of Directors, nor RISC who produced the CPR - interpreting seismics is incredibly difficult and you never really know until you drill and unfortunately on this occasion the drill bit showed the interpretation is wrong. I do though have questions about the timing of the financials as surely by that point in the drilling they new the reservoir was coming in low to prognosis.

I have a lot of sympathy for those posters here who have taken big losses, its a very hard way to learn a lesson, but I certainly wouldn't go chasing losses. I got out at about a penny on the morning of the RNS, if I hadn't I'd probably be tempted to hold to see if they can close a new project or they can spin something out of this drill that causes a spike, but I think the chance of any substantial long term gain is negligible, its just a case of looking for a better exit than 0.55p.

Finally ignore the vultures - no one is shorting this, but there are a number of posters talking it up with complete nonsense and false hope. Possibly one or two are desperately trying to talk their own book, but the rest are traders hoping to pump it and make a quick buck.

“ Imagine if company decides to go ahead themselves??
100-200% rise could come here easily.”

You’d have to imagine it because in reality they can’t do it as they aren’t an approved operator, nor do they have the necessary resources to become an approved operator.

I hope people on here remember the names of the rampers when the bleedin obvious is announced in the near future and the scuttle off to find another board to try and ramp.

Bladey, I purchased back in September/October, held all the way through and sold after the news yesterday - sizeable loss on this but thats the nature of it and it was always a speculative investment. No interest in getting back in or trading, people can check my posting history to see if I'm a trading and make their own decisions.

At the moment there aren't any positives - Buffalo is done, the operator have already made that clear just in case it wasn't obvious from yesterday's results which it should have been. There are no other projects announced and the result here is a setback both to credibility of the management team (which personally I still rate) and ability to finance any new deal as they have limited cash and now no equity valuation that allows them to raise cash without substantial dilution.

I'm hanging around, to counter the utter vultures and their pumping agenda and countering false, misleading and ramping information in the hope making a quick buck of the naive and inexperienced - I'm not sure which category you fall into.

"Completely and after a recommendation I opened a eToro account and trade in crypto nothing is a guarantee but feel there is no shifty moves like on AIM or the stock market in general and I hold XRP which is by all accounts going to be used to facilitate the move for America into digital payments not financiall advice but once again so sorry for everyone who lost money been there and it knocks you for six"

So you were so fed up of playing Russian roulette with 1 bullet in the chamber you've decided to pay crypto roulette with 3 in the chamber.

Sounds sensible

I'm not a new poster and I'm not telling anyone to sell - bottom draw and wait is maybe something some people want to go for. I3Energy had a similar situation when the Liberator well failed the SP crashed and it looked game over but a decent management team managed to secure good production assets and the SP has recovered from the lows - its not impossible for Advance as I think the management team remain credible and they have confirmed they are looking at production assets.

However most of the new posters are not telling people to sell, they are ramping to try and generate a dead cat bounce and trade it. They are all spreading misleading information and false hope through utterly irrelevant comparisons to other fields, raising hopes of sidetracks, claiming Advance can take over the project which is impossible as they are not an operator or raising hopes of a white knight as one analysts has said in theory Buffalo could be developed by a large company with mobile equipment which is true but they are swooping in here to bail anybody out, they have no need.

Those that do have the capacity to take on the smaller development, might as well just wait for the current owners, Carnavon and Advance to relinquish it - no point paying for something they can pick up for free if they are patient. Carnavon are not going to divert any of their cash to develop it, they have far better prospects and Advance aren't a qualified operator, don't want to operate and can't afford to do anything with it.

"ADV can buy the rights for cheap from CVN now and be 100% owner and then raise a small amount to sidetrack if needed. All is not lost. CVN just can't be bothered because they have dorado to fall upon."

Carnavon are the operator, they have been approved by the East Timor authorities as being qualified to operate. Advance have specifically stated their strategy is to take a share in opportunities as a non-operator as they don't want to employ the resources required to operate.

There is no scenario where Carnavon can walk away and Advance continue - Carnavon have to be involved, the decision has to be made now while the rig is onsite and Advance do not have the money to cover their share.

Utter vultures here and its not those that are realistic about the situation, its those ramping the hell out of this and pointing to 17 year old articles about a completely different oilfield just because it happened to have the same gross pay.

“ We might not produce as earlier prediction but lower rates are also welcomed!”

The whole game has changed - the prognosis was that this would be exceptionally productive reservoir pumping out large amounts of oil in a short period so cost recovery would be quick and opex per barrel low due to the short timeframe for extraction.

None of the capex requirements will be changed by this result, but the far lower recoverable number and associated lower productivity means far higher cost per barrel and far longer payback time so it’s highly unlikely to be a viable investment case even at current prices. Too much risk for debt as payback and asset coverage is no longer favorable and not attractive enough for equity when there are far more compelling projects elsewhere.

The 80 meters was critical for the 2C calculation - this whole case was an abandoned oilfield where the latest seismics indicated the high point of the reservoir had not been previously drilled hence there was a large attic of untapped resources.

Too many ramping vultures here now - buy/sell/hold fine each to their own but too many appeared out of the wordwork spreading misinformation hoping for short term gain.

I was in Advance for a small punt - the risk reward looked decent as a high impact well with high COS but I was well aware of the downside case and without that the gain in success wouldn’t have been there - you need risk for reward. Of course very few on the board wanted to hear that they all had their “golden tickets”.

Ironically the last high impact well I was in was Liberator with I3E. They’ve managed to reinvent themselves hopefully Advance can do the same as I think the management team are generally sound and they had their own cash invested - I’m out of course (as I was from I3E after liberator)

Why would it go insolvent - they have sufficient cash to meet obligations?

It’s all down to the next deal and whether they can get investor backing - a cash flow deal might well do, I3E survived liberator.

I’m not advocating holding I sold this morning as well but it’s not going bankrupt yet

They don't need a sidetrack, its a well understood reservoir all that was missing was confirmation of whether the top of the attic was. Now they have it they compare the actual to the seismic prognosed and recalibrate the seismic.

They don't have the money for a sidetrack and its not necessary.

This is a traders share now, it could well temporarily bounce around as people play it, but underlying value is well south of 1p.

"Someone is wrong here, the latest technology and seismic both indicated significant oil. How can that be wrong"

The intepretation and assumptions from the seismics were wrong, it happens its a complicated process that has to be interpreted. The reservoir is there, there is some oil, but the reservoir doesn't reach up into an attic as prognosed.

"we've been completely misled or the management are not as skilled as we thought. "

You've haven't been misled by management, you've invested in a company with a single project with a CPR from an independent auditor that deemed the project to have a high chance of success but not without risks as any drilling operation is.