Member Info for spike501

"@spike501 you talking nonsense. I can tell you want a lower entry. Buffalo 10 is gonna be great, even if they need to raise funds, it will be very profitable and mCap could be x5 or x10 in a few years if not earlier...."

What nonsense am I talking - this well does not deliver 20,000bopd, true or false?
To deliver 20,000bopd requires substantial further development investment, true or false?

If either of those statements are false I'll admit i'm talking nonsense.

Actually took a nice position yesterday - I'm in Jadestone, had taken a look at this before, but hadn't realised the rig goes from Skua directly here, kindly highlighted by saint-tropez.

Don't see any reason for this board to tolerate misleading stuff though, positive or negative

"With an 85% redevelopment that will deliver ADV with 20,000bpd only weeks out"

It won't though - this drill is to prove that a 20,000bopd development is viable, but development of that is still going to take many tens of millions of dollars that ADV are responsible for.

Bald_Eagle - the investor presentation released in mid September had a forecast of 30,000oz produced this year - given they produced about 13,000oz in the first half that means 17,000oz second half, so 8500oz per quarter. 2022 and 2023 forcecast is for 38000oz each year which is then stable quarterly production of 9500oz. So I think for Q3 I'm expecting at least 8000oz.

They have mined more than they milled over the last 18months so they must have a stockpile or ore and I wonder now if they start to work through some of that.

This is the money needed to increase the current plant to 1MMTPA and acheive production of 57,000oz per year in 2024. The recent presentation showed they need CAPEX of around $60million next year, so the amount proposed covers the shortfall from cashflow - if this can be raised its another big step and I think the SP will respond strongly.

It says its planned for listing in October, I'd expect strong Q3 production report in mid October.

That would certainly be nice and together with operational cashflow would leave the company fully funded for the next stage of development so there would be no need for any substantial equity raise and 5 year bonds also mean there is no refinancing risk for sometime.

I'm not surprised, at 37,000oz per year as planned for next year that can comfortably support the debt.

As I said before I tend to side with bald_eagle on this one that the company has current defined plans for two plants each of 1MTPA and the location of the second plant has been shifted from Sekisovkoye to Teren-Sai. Which isn’t to say longer term they can’t / won’t increase that to three plants with a second at Sekisovskoye but I don’t yet see that on the current roadmap despite what the previous CPR and previous results say.

It is all a bit academic though - I think we’ll be delighted here when Altyn can fully utilize the existing 850ktpa plant that they have.

Isdeer - that is oil in place, not recoverable.

“Never in the field of Oil Exploration Ramping has so much been written by one person about one company“

Let’s be fair, this isn’t the Gatwick Gusher.

Wressle is a decent little development, I think from an operational perspective the group have done pretty well.

Unfortunately it’s overall far to small to support the current UJO SP, so West Newton needs to be a success.

I do like all these posters doing PE type calculations. If I had £40 and promised to give someone £10 in the first year then they’d be willing to buy the £40 off me for £100 cos that’s a PE of ten innit

I shall put you on ze list

"nonsense, ujo will do very well even if WN is a complete flop, it has a great asset in Wressle"

Even UJOs broker doesn't think Wressle is worth more than a few pennies per share.

"So how come UKOG, I3e and numerous other shares I follow manage to place without leaks?"

UKOG - are you kidding?

I3E doesn't leak as it doesn't fund by rattling the tin at bucket shops and flippers, it actually targets institutions.

"You are either insane, deeply connected with the company or both."

Probably just the usual - in far too deep.

"I tell you something that has really annoyed and saddened me..so much for those that have tweeted in the past 'in David Bramhill we trust '"

How many did that other than Heid? Its a ridiculous statement for a PI to make. Trust has to be earned and trust has to be maintained. Generally I quite like the guy, he's a good stock promoter and decent deal maker which is what you need as a speculative AIM oiler CEO, but there is enough in his history of other AIM stocks such as Nighthawk to show that his interests are only minimally aligned with private investors.

Speculative companies doing placings to provide loans to other speculative companies is really nothing short of ridiculous as is a placing now to finance royalty units which have no possibility of the upside needed to cover the dilution for private investors. Its awful management and use of cash, which should have solely been used to develop the assets out, where if they are as good as the company maintains is where the value is going to be realised.

I tend to side with Bald_Eagle on this - I believe the intention has always been 2MTPA of processing, originally both at Sekisovskoye with material trucked in from Teren-Sai, but I think recently they have decided to switch the location of the second plant over to Teren-Sai, which has caused the confusion.

To be honest I think until the presentation this week the company didn’t know how many processing plants they would need and where they should be.

"That sort of blows a hole in the daft research - limiting gold production to 26,000 oz pa for next 3 years -that was paid for and promoted by Altyn."

Yep agreed, it was that report that killed the upward momentum the SP had. Interestingly I can't find that report on the website any more and the links in the RNS no longer work.

Well no RNS but I've put an order in here to increase my position as that presentation showed a lot of confidence and professionalism - I think its fairly clear the exit rate for 2021 will be somewhere around 9000oz per year so this is way undervalued.

Trans Siberian Gold was taken out for around £100million in August - production was about 45000oz per year, TSG had better grades, but ultimately the AISC was around the same. Political risk is at worst the same, if not higher for TSG and crucially proven reserves and resources for TSG were far far lower and there was significant ongoing spend on exploration to try and extend resources and mine life.

For me this offers comfortably better value than TSG did, due to the much larger resource and clear path to substantially higher production.

Presumably as the presentation is date sep_14 it is officially released tomorrow and I guess they’ll be an RNS.

I think it could cause some interest.

Outstanding presentation - significant step forward from the research note that had production flatlining at 28oz per year.

Full year forecast for 2021 is 30,000oz and I struggle to see the company would put that in a presentation now without having a high level of confidence it will be achieved, which would mean 17,000oz produced in H2 and then 2022 forecast is for 38,000oz.

I suspect Q3 production report will show around 8000oz of gold produced and then Q4 should be 9000oz.

The entire junior gold mining sector is a but unloved at the moment which isn't helping things so momentum keeps being taken out of the share as gold dips back below $1700.

I think the two main things that are holding back at the moment are.
- The research report that shows that all free cashflow is being invested back into mine development over the next 3 years, but there is no substantial increase in production beyond current rates of about 26000oz per year until 2025
- The fact the company keep referring to the need for capital, so there is nervousness about a placing.

I can only think the company must have been sandbagging for the research report - after years of overpromising and under-delivering, now go the other way. I find it inconceivable with all the investment happening to increase mining, increase grades and improve processing they cannot increase production up towards the 40,000oz that you highlight.

On the capital raising side to get to 100,000oz per year they do need it sometime in the future - however, if they can get production up above 30,000oz and beyond, the amount needed comes down quickly and there is more chance of a large portion being financed by debt.

I'm convinced they will move quarterly production towards 8000oz by the start of next year and potentially towards 10,000oz towards the end of 2022 - then as capital need recedes I would expect this to move up very quickly as its impossible to ignore the cashflows compared to market price.