Member Info for spike501

Reputationally though potentially a big issue

While operationally it sounds like it has been handled well, I expect from a share price perspective this is going to take a short term and long term hit. Short term clearly the outage and update in guidance to be at the lower end is I'm sure going to lead to a sharp drop and I suspect it will take a long time before investor confidence returns, if ever, in the strategy of investing in end of life assets as it brings these sorts of risks.

I'd be concerned of the knock on impact on Maari - for all Jadestone seem to have handled it well and this is a legacy issue and they have likely reduced the risks, it will be politically very difficult for to transfer the operator in New Zealand to one that has just had a leak in Australia.

"Spike, I could go along with that if we were seeing huge volumes of shares being sold off but not the case here. Scared punters and market makers laughing in my opinion."

Yep true, just for clarity I'm certainly holding, just not accumulating.

"No logic to this drop, so typical of AIM when the fundamentals all point one way. As others have judged, has to be a top-up opportunity at these rates - even with divi locked in."

There is certainly logic to the drop - oil prices are tanking as there are increasing signs a recession is on the cards and there is a big risk off movement across markets. Whether I3E is undervalued as this price is a different question, but I'm not sure I'd be piling into equity markets or commodities at the moment.

US natural gas prices have just dropped off a cliff as the fire at the Freeport LNG export facility will result in a halt to exports until late this year. About 20% of LNG exports go through Freeport which now creates a bottleneck. Gas price currently down 18% back to $7 - I'd assume this has a knock on effect on AECO.

At least oil has bounced back

While I agree in the long term there is some uncertainty if the merger goes through, in the short term until it goes through Capricorn has to continue operating as an independent company and announce anything that is relevant to the market - shareholders in Capricorn have to vote on the deal and nothing can be withheld that could make shareholders consider the terms undervalued Capricorn. There could of course be delays due to constrained availability of management due to focus on the merger.

Also even if the merger does go through and the new group aren’t committed to the North Sea, they will surely want to have things progressed to ensure they maximise value of any asset spin off.

Seems yesterday was just a temper tantrum..

Traded up to $.54 before closing on $.52 - oil has risen 3% in the last few hours

"50 p by year end."

Which year? :)

Nice update this morning, rig booked for end of Q3 and now oil is topping $120.

"I'd be extremely surprised if a windfall tax would be applied to any small cap AIM stock. Comments bandied around thus far have concerned "those with the widest shoulders""

Any windfall tax will almost certainly be increasing the Ring Fence Corporation that HMRC applies to the specific profits from activities on the UK continental shelf, which would mean it applies to all revenues from the North Sea only and not a general levy on corporation tax capturing non UK domiciled revenues. So it won't impact any profits that I3E generate from Canada, but would in theory reduce the value of Serenity, although a windfall tax would suggest it is time limited.

Just one additional point on the SP - although Henry Hub natural gas pricing is strong (indeed it has just broken $9), I3e sells on the Alberta benchmark (AECO), which has weakened somewhat through the last 3 weeks - it peaked at CND8.30 in early May, but has slipped back to CND6.00 in recent days - its obviously still far stronger than the financial budget, but may be part of the reason that I3E SP has been slightly weaker in recent weeks.

“ I was told by the UK govt back in 2014 that North Sea oil was running out”

Well technically it is unless you claim oil is regenerating faster than it is being extracted

Reasonably decent update.

Mined ore was down on last quarter but it sounds like that was weather related and overall it was still decent.
Good throughput for processing with over 150k tons processed and I assume some of that was lower grade inventory so the fact overall grade went up marginally on last quarter was also decent.

Run rate though is 32koz this year based on Q1 so someway off the targeted 38koz, however if they can mine and process 150k tonnes per quarter and improve grades further potentially 35koz can be hit.

Not sure I like the statement at the end though - an update on annual results will be given shortly. Why an update and not a release of the results?

Not convinced $180 oil is inevitable - there are unprecedented bottleneck in refining at the moment so a lot of refined products (Jetfuel, US diesel) are already selling at $180 and more per barrel - refiners are making historic margins.

Recession risk is high which is not positive for crude. $100-110 is perfect and hopefully refining bottlenecks get solved.

Worth following Javier Blas on Twitter for a broad view in commodities o

"spike the SP dropped after the announcement on Monday."

Yeah, I know - I think my point was that the market never moves on simply one variable, so a 25% dividend hike is not going to result in a 25% increase today. Oil prices are also about 10% lower since the dividend hike was announced and that 10% drop in oil, takes a substantial chunk out of operating margin, which is ultimately go forward cashflow.

Good day to increase the dividend though and hopefully commodity prices stabilise as it looks like - $100-110 range would be great, not sure spikes and volatility beyond that are particularly helpful over the medium term.

"Good news, certainly, but the RNS doesn't make it clear if this will be paid out for 10 months in the calendar year, as it is now, or a full 12 months a year,"

No it doesn't, but they only started the monthly dividend in March this year hence ten monthly payments and it stands to reason for 2023 the monthly dividend will be paid out over all 12 months. I'm fairly sure its a calculated move to set the dividend where it is now as a 25% hike for this year, which them already builds a hike in for next year and other than a sharp drop in commodity prices £17.1million is well within dividend policy.

You don't want to sell a monthly dividend to income investors and then not pay it for 2 months in a year.

"Using simple metrics will the SP climb above 32p today ( 25% above yesterday's close)? It should."

The market knew the dividend was being increased, it just didn't know the amount - if it thought it would increase 30% then the SP could go down 5% today.

Should be a good day though - as I say its actually a 35% increase, markets look a bit stronger and oil and gas have strengthened.

Good point :)

All else stands

Its actually a lot better than it is outlined - the total cash being paid out in 2022 is being increased by 25%, but the monthly dividend is being hiked by over 35%. Its unlikely they would get themselves into a position where they would have to decrease the monthly dividend next year (unless there is a large drop in commodity prices) and it should also be paid out 12 times in 2023 which would then be a total of 17.1p, so the dividend is now effectively 6.57%

I3E share price has gone up rapidly over a relatively sharp period - its consolidating somewhat now and yesterdays sharp fall in oil is leading to a dip. Forget all this nonsense about shadowy forces attacking it, to get in cheap, 99% of the time it has nothing to do with this.

I wouldn't pay much attention to Simply Wall Street, Gary59 is right all the recent purchases have been pretty inconsequential. I very much suspect Simply Wall Street includes in that calculation shares held in treasury that have been purchased through share buybacks.

As far as I can see very few management have actively bought large number of shares, there have simply been a few small purchases which I suspect are their allowances under employee ownership schemes and the rest is from the exercise of free options.