Member Info for SpaceHoppa

Hi Pauldrayton, assuming 120 working days true, time is up, I guess if we take off 5 days for Christmas and New Year they may have another weeks grace. I'm reasonably confident of a positive outcome, as the insurance company believes it will be a win, and they normally assess risk very well.

both parties ta***tay, it was first highlighted in a navitas report a couple of years ago to my knowledge. i'm not sure , perhaps someone would know, but presumably it could increase as money is spent on development to first oil?

Missed off

' 85% of $254m' ............ is $215m

Which will pay off a good chunk of initial Capex debt

Ralph, Bloobird,

for sure it will be different, and as some learned poster pointed out, Rock may increase more as our perceived risk pre FID is higher than Navitas's, as they are already a producer, and Shenandoah is an established province, and we are neither atm. Also Navitas's debt is as you say, high, ours on a $1.4b capex spend is $500m, minus perhaps $60m we'll have in cash. We repaid our debt from 85% of Rockhopper's working interest share of free cash flow. I worked out that at POO $65bbl and Opex costs at US$17, 50,000bbls/day, and taking into account the $700m tax we can write off, Rock make $254m net Rockhopper profit in the first year. 85% of $254m.

Hypothetically we could have repaid half our debt in the first full year of production.

The period to our first oil should be shorter than Shenandoah's 3.5years too, so hopefully our rise will be steeper and sooner, once FID is secured.

Here is what we may replicate once we FID around summer.

Shenandoah FID'ed in August 21, Navitas's SP was about 1500 sheckles. Today on the cusp of their 'Game Changer' oil field, they are over 9000, a 6 fold increase!! Hypothetically if we did the same with our 'game changer', We could be £2.22 in 3 years 💥

https://www.navitaspet.com/stock-chart/

As for ICSID, well it has been 10 months now since the ad hoc Committee held the hearing on annulment in Madrid. Taking the wee wee now.

CJ1986, not speaking of you specifically, I haven't looked at you history, perhaps in the same vein you wish people to forgive and forget historical posts, which can be abusive, disruptive, derampery and outright lies, you'll just have to forgive and forget that not everyone feels they should. Personally, I prefer to filter all who I regard as a waste of my time.

MD, looking at the evidence as we know it from RNS's, Navitas, 3rd party declaration, ie FSPO contracts etc, then until something happens to change my view, it seems just logical to assume Rocks SP will be reasonably higher than the 30's and 40's we are currently enjoying.

MD - ''I am trying to take advantage of the sp movement.''

I'm less of a trader MD, however good luck to those that do, and I respect posters who post buys, less so those who just post sells and claim mega profits.

On that note I acquired a few more at 37.3pence. Only 4.4k or so but as I firmly believe the SP will rise to 50's or 60's with a combination of OM cash in bank, Shenandoah progress and first oil, and FID, then I actually care very little over these 5 or 10pence swings. FWIW I will sell that 4.4k on the way up, and top slice some of my 500k at some point.

Lack of news also pushed it higher MD, to 43p !

Chill out CJ, it's a glitch. BOR for example is

Bid: 4.80 Ask: 0.00

Violindog, Navitas have afaik, never had an issue raising funds despite some dubious mostly, ex posters who have since scarpered, suggesting otherwise.

The main take away, is that Navitas with initially 39,000bbls/day @ $15 (opex + capex) coming on stream in a few months, will likely have no issues to raise funds for Sea Lion FID.

Hi LTT, I resent your implication that Mrs Space isn't already a "very happy hopper" 😉

I'll have you know not a day goes by when I don't tell her how lucky she was to marry me !

Hi MD,

assuming all goes roughly to plan, then 60's and 70's look likely this year. My revised guess of 51p EoY looks rubbish now, but I have hopes for Mrs S to win at 77p. Not sure on a TO however it is a possibility after FID.

Noticed last night the SP jumped around a lot yesterday at the close for 90 seconds, and SP did the same first thing today as well.

Looking at the historical charts I think we need to leave the 43/44p zone before hopefully a relatively easy ride up to mid 50's. For now tho we might be in a new trading range of circa 40 to 43p. It might take a little bit of positive news on Shenandoah or OM to get above 43/44pence. Happy with the progress so far and it's very much a when. not if before we get to 50p's imo.

Oiluser, $4mill has been paid already and accounted for in Rocks balance sheet, which was $24m as of Oct 24. Somewhere between Eur31m to Eur65m will be the pay out regardless of the annulment outcome.

Absolutely LTT, $46.6m is just an example if $1billion was secured through loans etc. I suspect Navitas will secure most of the required first oil capex thru loans, bonds, vendor finance, possible 3rd JV partner etc.

Re ICSID, well I have seen dead snails move faster than these top lawyers !!

April 11, 2024 - April 12, 2024 The ad hoc Committee holds a hearing on annulment in Madrid.

September 9, 2024 Each Party files a submission on costs.

October 1, 2024 The ad hoc Committee issues a decision on the non-disputing party’s application to file a written submission pursuant to ICSID Arbitration Rule 37(2).

Since then ..........😴😴😴😴😴Zzzzzzzz

It's rather pathetic.

Rock needs to find $46.6m if Navitas only borrow $1billion.

In Oct Rock had a cash balance of $24m. They also have a guaranteed minimum $31m from the OM award, total $55m minus a few million in admin etc since Oct.

Three points, when FID happens, even if the OM award hasn't been paid, the development of Sea Lion wont require the whole hypothetical $46.6m to be paid immediately,

Two, getting a loan for $10m /$20m or so wouldn't be a problem imo, and

Three, if they needed more money immediately, and need to issue more shares, then at the current SP of 37p. Rock would only need to issue 55m shares to get $25m, that is only an 8% dilution. This last option is unlikely to be required unless the city boys try to orchestrate getting some cheap shares.

Hi LTT,

yes the perceived wisdom is that ii's will wait until FID before taking a significant stake, although they can and may have, secretly built up to just under 3% already. It is still difficult to comprehend that after a decade, this time it does look almost certain SL will be given the green light, and that the SP is likely to risen from the ashes of single digit pennies to a pound or two by 2028.

Hi Ancientarcher, that's for explaining your reasoning that RKH is consider higher risk before FID than Shenny, and consequently RKH may rise more once that greater risk is removed. Makes sense.

MD, well done for banking profits.

Navitas's share price has so far increased 5 fold in the two years on the run up to first oil at their 'game changer' Shenandoah development, expected in Q2.

Rocks 'game changer' is Sea Lion and arguably is way more important to their SP as it is their first developing income source and opens up a whole basin of hugely prospective oil fields. Sea Lion is very likely to be given the FID green light in Q2/Q3, and if Rocks SP does the same as Navitas's SP, then in 3 years from now we could be looking at an SP of £1.90, if just half as good then it's still 95p. It is more likely I feel to be £1.90 than 95p but time will tell. So......

Hold if you have enough shares already.

Sell if you really need the money or are very over weight

However for those looking in and with no shares yet, then imo, the sooner you Buy and build a stake the better, as the risk /reward seems heavily stacked to reward. Risks seem minimal at this late stage as FIG/Navitas/Rock all keen to get started, FPSO has been identified and is available and modification design contracts signed etc and FID 'expected in Q2.

The right time to buy was 2 months ago in the low teens, then 20's was best, now were in 30's. If you want in then imo, don't wait for 40's or 50's.

🐧🐧🐧🐧

Take your pick.......

Burnwell 300

OscarIndiaLima 292

lovely80085 277

HotMustard 252

Davef24 220

Spacesmate170kShares 155

Neilius 150

Stillneedoil 132

BB_hoppa 125

Smac50 124 (as 125 taken)

Henrygroucho 122

Digitalboy1 117

Blatav1 115

Bigred7 111

Croftoriginal2 109.5

Chaiwallah 108

CanYouDiglt 107

Oilfieldhand 106

Mess6301 100.5

Nastynick 99.5

Tincan1995 99

Daikihakul 89 (as 99 taken)

AncientArcher 95

Doger Rodger (94 as 95 taken)

Muchaboutmoney 92

longtermthinker 91

Scottjr2 90

Stoney63 89.5

BuildersBum3 89

Offshorepilot 88

Mygainmyloss 87

Gardie 85

Kerching 84

Ralph2010 82

LEEDS5 81

Taurus8 80

Bootledodger 79

JEBR 78.5

Buffit 78

Jackman444 77.5

Longtermholder98 77

Orbit10 76

Dictumdedicto 75.5

CJ1986 75

Tagg 74

Hsbilkhu 73

Mrs SpaceHoppa 72.5

JPDM 72

Tractorboy01 69

Fecm 68.5

Thenorseman 68

Cingene 67.5

Fin147 67

HonestTom 66

Unionjack1 65.5

Xmtman 65

BrightSpot 62.5

Bridget 62

Bpool53 61

ArielArrow 59

Market-Dealer 58

Neil423 54

SpaceHoppa 51

McCloughry 50

Oiluser 48

BlueDefender 46

Morforus 43

r1234 40

The news that the Shenny FPS has arrived is of course, another hurdle that can be ticked off. Milestones are important as timeframes have been met and perceived and actual risk is reduced. I'm slightly sceptical this will impact the SP much tomorrow as it was expected and the recent rise may be because the arrival was expected.

That said 2025 is going to plan, Shenandoah is highly likely going to first oil in Q2, Sea Lion's FID, both financial and regulatory, will almost certainly be ready to be signed off by first oil.

Leaving aside the guaranteed Eur31m-Eur65m OM money, obtaining FID is the starting gun for probably a decade long golden age for Rocks shareholders. Sub £1 by first oil will probably never be seen again.

For the record I will be selling probably 20% of my holding Q2 or Q3 as I am over weight Rock and the proceeds will allow me to go to a 3 or 2 day working week, or I might just retire. I hope to retain at least 300k shares to first oil.