Stephan Bernstein, CEO of GreenRoc, details the PFS results for the new graphite processing plant. Watch the video here.
I wish people would filter or ignore the dross posters, it just clogs up the board with more dross replies !
So, on with hopefully some constructive thoughts. I and others deserve a mini pat on the back for assessing 8 or 9 months ago what is 'likely' to happen.
I think last year I put the chances of Navitas signing bindings at 95%, and so they did.
Plus 90%+ chance of Rock winning the case, and so it was, although the amount did massively surprise me, and I am so glad the OM award is over and we don't have another 2 months of waiting !!
We now move on to the next ducks.
Getting the last i and t's dotted from Gov't approved is I feel a dead certainty.
Getting a significant payment from Italy is also 95%+ likely I feel, as King and Spalding/Harbour know how to, and will ensure they and Rock get the many $millions that is legally owed.
Navitas are I feel still 90%+ likely to decide to develop SL, and they now have a partner that can stand on it's own two feet.
14pence is a steal for anyone buying now as the risk/reward is even more stacked on the side of significant reward in the short or long term. Perhaps for a few days or weeks the SP might bobble about a bit, but as it slowly sinks in that Sea Lion is 90% going to happen, regardless of if Italy p issing about, then the shares will be heading higher imho.
The positive change in Rocks fortune these last 12 months has been extraordinary, however most still have not clocked how good this companies prospects now are! My 500k plus 50k warrants are staying for the long run. Good luck if you gamble on trading though, each to their own.
Fair play to them, they, the lawyers, Italy especially took their time, and some! however they came to the right result as Italy clearly were in breach, and the award seems quite fair and much more than most of us hoped.
I suspect funders Harbour knew Italy were in for a kicking though hence the no win/no fee.
Very well played Harbour, King and Spalding AND Moody/Rock.
What is quite normal, when a share doubles in a day, is for the SP to drift lower as people top slice here and there.
In this case things might be different, Rocks bank balance (with Italy payment of circa £120million now showing on the creditors list) is massively significant, Navitas are very clearly keen as feck over Sea Lion, PoO is back at $100/bbl.
Rock after a bit of profit taking, I hope will soon start a steady and long term drift higher towards 30p
Keep in mind if Navitas found funding of $1billion for the SL development which cost say $1.4B, Rock would need to find $35m.
Anyone who wanted a big stake in Rock via another placing can kiss that idea bye bye as there will be no more Rock share placings :)
So much bigger than I had hoped for !!!
Rock, turn-around play 2022 :) YIPPEEEEEE
A reminder of the last update-------''Rockhopper Exploration plc ~ is pleased to announce that ~ the Ombrina Mare Arbitration were declared closed ~ on 25 April 2022.
Under the ICSID Arbitration Rules, the Tribunal has 120 days after closing to issue its Award, extendable by 60 days (Rule 46). The Company will update the market in due course.''
I am a little surprised to not see an Rns this morning, as I calculate 120 days ended yesterday. I would expect an a Rns later today or tomorrow morning. Realistically an extension is by far the most likely situation, but the lack of an Rns today saying as much, does puzzle me a bit
Pauldraton, it may be considered poor form, but it is the norm that they only announce an extension at the end of the negotiation period, so today all parties will be informed, and an Rns will be issued tomorrow with either the award, or much more likely, the final extension.
If my maths is correct, 120 days from 25th April is tomorrow,
and I feel the chances of a conclusion to proceedings be reported are small.
So, we will highly likely get an Rns on Wed saying nothing but a two month extension.
The problem for Italy,
apart from Harbour voluntarily stumping up the money long term on a no win/no fee basis,
and their employing a very expensive top of the range group of lawyers,
is that Italy were by all reasonable accounts, absolutely in breach of the ECT
That should be there undoing, and rightly so !!
As for the award, anything net to Rock of $15m and I will be reasonably content,
everything above that will be a nice, and somewhat expected, bonus.
I agree Buzz, it is not looking more likely than not, that this clownshow arbitration will be extended another 60 days, and Paul I doubt the extention will be announced until the day after the initial deadline.
It wouldn't be compulsory or normal I feel, for Rock to RNS an appointment of another company.
The COO news is out there and Navitas are not PMO'ing in the wind waiting for tings to happen.
SL is very odds on to be developed, and has been ever since Navitas signed the MoU,
investors have just been a bit slow believing it, that will change as Navitas crack on regardless.
Just seen your post Pauldrayton and the great news of a COO at Navitas. Thanks.
Eventually investors will see that the biggest most important news that has befallen Rock in a decade,
is getting Navitas on as 65% owner and operator.
OM is a sideshow, and Rock are cheap as chips !
Why would Navitas bring in a new partner mean Rock needing more money???
That makes zero sense!
If you're that down on Rock and really believe what you post you should sell ASAP please.
Any OM money will be a nice bonus for Rock, and I initially bought 250,000 or so a year or two ago just for that reason, however I'm now sticking around for Sea Lion development which has a far bigger value impact for shareholders I feel, than a $30 -$130million OM award.
With regards to the blocklisting of new shares, I think until they are issued, then we can not be sure they will be issued.
They are clearly there for what Rock expects will be the demand for the 9p warrants, and as such I do expect them to be issued. However it's not certain, as the 5th of July Rns shows
'The Company also announces that it has applied to the London Stock Exchange to cancel the shares which remain unissued from the blocklisting application submitted on 23rd January 2020 in connection with the Company's Share Incentive Plan'
Great write up DEM and I agree with your logic. I feel the minimum Rock will be looking at, taking into account interest, is £15m net, or 3p on the SP under your calculations.
I also feel there is the intangible bonus being
1. The OM distraction is out of the way and people can focus on Sea Lion, and 2. The feeling that Rock with the extra cash will be better placed to see SL through to first oil. Whatever the result, it will be great to see the back of the legal wrangling.
< 10 % chance that FID doesn't happen
Bootledodger, who knows why the market values a company at ABC one day and XYZ the next.
However 10 years of disappointment might be a factor, poor sentiment wrt management at Rock,
the < 10 chance that FID doesn't happen, the time lag between now and FID, between FID and first oil.
General lack of awareness or misunderstanding I feel, of how important having Navitas as operators is.
I'm confident that Rocks SP is going to be multiples of 8pence in the coming years, which is why I'm not selling and Rock is my biggest investment.
Just what we know Bootledodger
Stated sub $45/bbl cash break-even
250 million barrels recoverable resource
Potential for multiples of that, and Tcf gas in Rocks licence areas
Sea Lion is 'shovel ready'
Navitas were super keen to take 65%, their positive presentation of Sea Lion to their own investors,
their proven ability to fund big projects, their distain for Argie politics,
their $391m a year profit if PoO averages approx $80/bbl
Support of FIG/UK Gov's and the potential
The new need for energy security
There may be other reasons but for me, added together, in my opinion is Sea Lion is 90%+ going to be developed by Navitas.
'I suspect very shortly you will be a millionaire'
Unlikely with his 795k Rock shares in the short term, even if OM is a decent award, however with in my opinion, Sea Lions 90%+ chance of being exploited, perhaps in 3 to 5 years we could be looking at a 3 digit share price.
Meanwhile that ruling - 'the Tribunal has 120 days after closing to issue its Award, extendable by 60 days', so only 21 days now until the first deadline.