Member Info for SpaceHoppa

Thanks as always Mogger. I couldn't get that link to work, however this one seems to. I can't translate either 😏😏

https://maya.tase.co.il/he/reports/companies/1653135?attachmentType=pdf1

Hi LTT, in theory with Capex costs of $490m and an estimated $427m net profit over 2 years, of which Rock will keep 15% ($64m) and the rest goes to pay Navitas. Then even if we attribute zero possible first oil Capex tax deductions for now, a possible scenario is Rock debt EOY 2 is reduced to $127m, and they'd have received income of $64m, and will have the balance of current cash in bank, approx $22m, plus £31m to $65m from OM.

Rocks SP with decades of reliable oil income to come, will absolutely have ballooned from current levels. But we need FID to let the ballooning begin.

I hope so Citizen, however my knowledge of how much of the Capex can be offset against tax is limited at best. Hence the question of the thread. I would hope it runs into many $100's of millions.

Hi LTT, yes Rock pay back Navitas 85% out of free cash flow.

My calculations are a guide to actual profits Rock might make under the stated hypothetical assumptions. We may of course have up to $75/$80m to add to our bottom line to start with.

Sorry, correction to year 2, should read

Year 2 with 50k/d. 50,000 x $47 x 345days = 737m

minus royalty = 670m,

minus corp tax = 496m,

35% to Rock is $173m net

Rock would make $427m in profit, in 2 years.

Hi Daikihaku1, re your earlier question regarding time before Rock were debt free. I did the following calculation previously which is as close to accurate I can get with the information and assumption made.

If phase 1 production average is 50,000b/d and Opex costs are $17/bbl. The maths with POO at $65bbl and Opex costs at US$17 are

50,000bbls x $47 = $2.35M revenue per day,

Say 345 days production a year to allow for down time = $810million gross profit a year

Royalty on turnover is 9% so $737m before tax

( Corp Tax is 26% after the $700m tax we have to write off )

700m with no tax, plus 37m with 26% corp tax, is 727m net profit

35% of 727 is $254m net Rockhopper profit after 12 months.

Year 2 with 50k/d. 50,000 x $47 x 345days = 737m

minus royalty = 920m,

minus corp tax = 545m,

35% to Rock is $190m net

A reminder that Rocks eventual share of costs to first oil is estimated at $490m, and under the above Rock would make $444m in profit, in 2 years. Obviously if Poo was $70, $75 or $60/bbl or production averaged higher or lower, or if tax deductibles from the $1.4B capex was significant, then times scales could be longer or shorter by 6 months or so.

Daikihaku1, I am at work atm, however, assuming reasonable production and POO, I think I worked out Rock would make enough profit in 2 or 3 years to be debt free, assuming no other costs happened in those years like drilling Issy. I will check when I get back.

Hi Citizen,

not sure about the rules or time frame but this is from Navitas Petroleum Financial Statements as at December 31, 2023

'USD 700 million, that can be utilized in the future against a taxable income from the Oil Asset.'

Thanks for the reply Alma, it does seem a murky area as to how much tax would be write-offable. It would be great to have a ball park figure as I want to make a spreadsheet for initial years profits. I guess as a guide and taken from Navitas's website

'Previous owners in the Sea Lion field drilled 20 exploration and appraisal penetrations. Past investments amount to approximately USD 1.3 billion' and they said $700m is tax deductible. I guess with a $14.b capex, perhaps a conservative $400m is a figure I could work with. I might email SM, although I'm not sure he's as responsive as previously.

Oiluser, the $700m is jointly owned afaik, as per % owned.

We are aware the JV have $700m of tax write offs to offset against future profits.

Does anyone know how much, if any, of the predicted $1.4billion capex to first oil, is tax deductible?

Thanks for posting Violindog. Good to see FIG managing to borrow such a large amount on 'on competitive terms' and such a long time before 1st repayment, 2040. Makes me wonder if they're starting to leverage the expected massive boost to their income from hydrocarbons.

Re the charts, I'm not convinced they will give us any guidance as Rocks SP will 100% be news driven, ie, OM/ FID and we're off to the races, no FID or postponement and it's a big dip.....imo

Thank you everyone for the sleuthing/stalking of Navitas's FPS !

Another page tuned towards their end game of Shenandoah production, which they say will lead onto the decision on our Sea Lion FID.

I don't know how this will affect the Rock SP, it was after all expected, but I would say, unless you need the cash, waiting until our summer FID decision would seem the logical way to maximise profits. My Johnny come very lately collegue, who only built a £27k position in the last 10 days, is already about £3k in profit. I expect there will be many other Johnny's, of varying sized pockets, who will want your shares. They're not getting mine at current prices !

Was the share price exactly 4 months ago 😲

Rocks SP has tripled since then on important, but 2nd tier news, extra 100m 2C reserves, progress towards FID, Shenny FPS arrival in USA etc. I'm more restrained in how far the SP will rise in the coming months, however it seems likely that a modest 50p+ is on the cards assuming OM and FID happen in Q2/Q3. Have a nice weekend fellow Rocksters.

BlooBird, another JV partner, even if it was only Navitas that reduced their %, would help Rock by bringing in cash to Navitas meaning debt funding would be easier and or a larger element of first oil Capex, which could mean the % rock needed to find would be less. Also a hypothetical new partner may bring specific experience and expertise.

If Rock gave up a few %, then we would expect a cash payment which would mean Rocks balance sheet would be even better than the expected $50 to $80m it should be post OM and by the time of FID.

Nothing I feel, can be read into low volume days or weeks. Back in ancient history of 20th Nov 2024 we barely had 200k+ traded, 5 days later we went on a journey from 13.5p to 40pence. I'm unconcerned and if anything, it just demonstrates 99.9% of investors are happy to hang on to their Rock shares.

As for what someone should pay to buy into Sea Lion, well I quickly calculated, so happy to be corrected, that each 1% of the 917mmbbls equals a profit of $240m after tax/royalties. If someone had 15% that would be $3.6billion over the life of field.

I don't think we should be selling each % of Sea Lion for less than $80m given all the work has already been done !

Hi LTT,

you may well be right to be sceptical about the timeline for an OM decision, however I feel it could drop any day now and before May seemed a reasonable guess. Rock themselves hoped it would be before year end

''Whilst there is no formal timetable, we continue to be hopeful that a decision is possible before the end of 2024 but otherwise expected in H1 2025.''

Slow drift back down to 33pence support levels again, but as has been pointed out, volume is pretty low indicating little conviction higher or lower. Most days since late January have been less than 3million traded, and today just a million so far. Mr Market appears to be awaiting solid news to decide which way to jump.

Ephemeral, it is best if you research this yourself, however as a rough guide:

OM award and $31 to $65m payment March /April

Shenandoah FPSO tow out, hook up and testing April/May

Shenandoah first oil late May

Aoka Mizu FSPO current contract termination June to Aug

FID June to Sept

On a different subject and whilst making my friend aware nothing is certain, after doing his own research, he's purchased so far £6,000 of Rock at an average of 36p, and plans to add perhaps another £21,000 over the coming weeks. I hope and can imagine more such people investing once the story becomes main stream.

Looks like the bedwetting of the major world indicies yesterday, has reversed over night, so I wouldn't be surprised to see us back to 36p+ today.

All part of the Rocky show😊

Very much a pin the tail on the donkey guessing game LTT. I try to err on caution so perhaps FID 2 or 3 months later than expected, first oil 6 months??

It would be good tho, to get FID announced before the AGM, which will probably be the last week of June.

Interestingly Tincan1995, Navitas's SP tripled from circa 500 Shekels to 1500 Shekels on the run up to Shenny FID, but over a 16month period, and then it paused a couple of years before taking of big style towards 18months before expected first oil.

Rocks SP has tripled but over a 2 month period and we are a perhaps 2 or 5 months away from FID. Our timescale between FID and first oil is perhaps 2.5 to 3 years. It is possible we may may hang around 30s, 40's or 50's even after FID until perhaps a 4, 5 or 6 fold increase to first oil. I can wait for that % gain.