Member Info for SpaceHoppa

Thanks Lufc4eva and Steelbee for posting the article. Seems like Navitas's ability to raise money when required is pretty easy for them, and the elevation to Tase35 index will do no harm either.

Sea Lion represents 50% of their booked 2C reserves. If Isobel is just half of the size of Sea Lion that would add nearly 300mmbbls to their reserves. I think it's far more likely to be 50% more, than 50% less. The Falklands represents their future growth and will almost certainly be FID'ed this year, which means we are all in for a lovely summer😎🐧

Morning Steelbee

''Mention of sealion too, further material progress expected.''

Will you copy and paste the above please. Thanks.

And finish to the week, however not the best day for reading posts here. I didn't used to mind your posts MD, but like LTT, you're getting close to being filtered for repetitive dullness, and also everyone who responds to his posts just makes the forum tiresome to read.

Here's the reality for newbies.

1. Navitas own 65%, have spent $50m getting the oilfield ready for FID, have a great track record and seem very committed.

2. Rock own 35%, are NOT cash strapped as had been said, and have no reason to issue more shares! They have perhaps $24m in the bank, and an IOY for somewhere between US$33m to US$68m depending on the OM result.

3. If, not when imo, Navitas announce FID, then hypothetically with a Capex of $1.4B, If they had debt finance for $1.1B, and the JV needed $300m in cash, Rock would only need to find $35m for their share as Navitas agreed to carry Rock for most of the costs.

4. Sea Lion is profitable from $26/bbl. Currently Brent is $67/bbl

Relax everyone. The raw data indicates there is currently no reason whatsoever for FID not to happen, and Rocks SP is more than likely to be well north of a £1 if a year or two.

Seperately, JEBR, thanks for reposting the EoY predictions, my 51p is looking lame!! I noticed a couple of guesses from OilTraded and P777, hopefully you will not include these fine people as the the closing date for guesses has long since passed.

Slowly but surely Falkland oil is getting more known. Its only a minor mention that wasn't 100% accurate but, reposted by Toby Young

https://x.com/toadmeister/status/1911838272092774863?t=FVkgnoGKLQPE0zMMbn7KYA&s=19

Reiterated Oldscouser on RNS 22 May 2024

Capex per bbl US$8 life of field

Opex per bbl US$17 life of field

Improved economics, reduced breakeven at US$25/bbl cost life of field

If we are lucky, it may be Nav's London team have shaved another $ or 2 off, fingers crossed.

Thanks for the detail reply Oldscouser. I looked at the 23/3/2025 report, however can't find what you are suggesting

https://www.navitaspet.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/NSAI-Navitas-Sea-Lion-ISA-Report-as-of-12.31.2024.pdf

I'm not qualified to say if what you are suggesting is accurate or not, but I do know on the Rock RNS dated 22 Jan 2024 , it says Opex of ''under US$17 per barrel.''

''capex of approximately US$8 per barrel and opex across life of field has been materially reduced to under US$17 per barrel, providing very robust economics and a lower risk project with a lower attractive break even under US$25 per barrel''

It would be great if what you suggest is correct, but for now I think $16/$17bbl Opex should be considered as correct.

$10 OPEX would be out of this world brilliant. However last I remember it was just a fabulous $17/bbl. Have you a cut and past for your $10 as it seems to have passed everyone by??

Rock increased 38pence and went from 13.5 to 51.5p in 4 month, a 375% increase. Dropping back to 41p after Trumps tariffs and a $10 drop in POO is a healthy correction, rather than a 'disappointing bounce'. Nothing significant has changed imo, and as far as Navitas are concerned, it's all just part of the journey towards exploiting their huge Falklands C2, $25/bbl break evens reserves. Navitas are the real deal, they'll get it over the line, regardless of Trumps actions.

Hi Alma, like most people I guess, I have no reason to like lawyers. That said, I don't think the ICSID ones will be stringing out cases for year just to earn extra. They presumably only get paid for work they do???

Hypothetically it could be both sides get the nod to the award before it is made public, and then, assuming ROI lost, there may be a frenzy of horse trading to settle out of court so to speak, to avoid a negative case precedence. Pure speculation of course.

Alma, it matter not to Rock whether or not the EU allow enforcement. Our payment is purely about the award outcome, and amount.

Hi Daikihaku1, as Pauldrayton has said, and I believe Mogger initially pointed out, the 3rd party submission appears to have been disallowed I suspect there are strict rules of who may submit these interjections, otherwise every annulment could be delayed in theory, forever.

90 days is nothing compared to this misery bunch of W⚓'s !!!

May 19, 2017 The Secretary-General registers a request for the institution of arbitration proceedings.

7 years go by Zzzzzzzzzz

April 11, 2024 - April 12, 2024

The ad hoc Committee holds a hearing on annulment in Madrid.

June 18, 2024

Each party files a post hearing brief.

September 9, 2024

Each Party files a submission on costs.

September 13, 2024

A non-disputing party files an application to file a written submission pursuant to ICSID Arbitration Rule 37(2).

September 26, 2024

Each party files observations on the non-disputing party’s application.

October 1, 2024

The ad hoc Committee issues a decision on the non-disputing party’s application to file a written submission pursuant to ICSID Arbitration Rule 37(2).

Trump is divisive, I think that can be agreed by all. I like some of his actions and policies, and dislike others. He might be good for America and the world in the long run, he might not. Time will tell, however this is the Rockhopper forum andas I see it, Rock/Navitas are back on track for FID mid year/H2.

Navitas will not have assumed POO would always be $70/bbl for Shenny and know at a breakevens of $15/bbl are comfortable with it. It should also be noted that Shenny has approx 211mmbbls 2C, and own 49%, so 105mmbbls.

Sea Lion alone has 917mmbbls 2C and they own 65%, so 596mmbbls or 5 x as much 2C oil in the Falklands than at Shenny.

Ignoring the basin full of oil that is probably yet to be discovered, SL alone should be enough for everyone to see it is essential for Navitas's future, and that FID will happen.

I'm not concerned if people think Trump blinked, or people think he's a genius. Upshot is he rightly. or wrongly regards China as a bad faith actor. In a week he's got '75 countries'' eager to discuss better tariff terms, and has isolated China who remain on 125% tariff, effectively killing trade between them, which is $300b in China's favour atm.

Markets and oil are up so yes, back into the 40's tomorrow highly likely. A 90 day pause takes us to July, and after the planned Shenny 1st oil event. I expect apart from US/China trade, the world is going to get back to some sort of normality, and hopefully Rock will have another crack at 60's in the next few weeks🤞🐧

In USA stock and around the world, apart from China, as Trump hikes tarrifs against Beijing and lowers/pauses tarrifs against most others.

This maybe where he wanted/planned to be, stuff China and trade with the rest of the world.

Dow Jones up 5.5% atm.

At the moment I don't see Navitas delaying FID. They will be looking at what the oil price will be in Q1 2028. With a breakevens of $15bbl at Shenny, then a reduction from $70 to say $55/$60 bbl will not be helpful, but there is plenty of profit there still. Also Sea Lion will be producing for well over 20 years. Its the price of oil over a long period that matters, not POO over a specific year or two.

I guess the one thing it might do, is encourage them to take on another JV partner, of which they say they have that option.

Superritch, off topic. We will have to respectfully disagree.

I qualified my statement by saying in 'the Chinese regime', and whilst I agree radical Islam affects you an I and he west more directly, what they do to the millions Uyghur, ie execute, imprison, enslave, and sterilise is for them 'in some ways' just as bad. I shall say no more on this off topic.

Agree. It looks like a world indicies blue day which in theory means Rock are likely to be back in the 40's. EU have offered a 'Zero-Zero' tariff on manufacturing and most countries know their unfair protectionist tariffs against US need to stop.

I have some Chinese heritage in me and the Chinese regime needs stopping as they are a malign state and in some ways just as bad as radical Islam.

Re the whereabouts of the Shenandoah, it is intersting, but fairly irrelevant as wherever it is, Navitas have said oil in June, so everything inbetween is just process towards that event.

Yep, everything will rebound strongly if confirmed. Great buying opportunity for those who had cash !!

Nitro182, Zebbo, thanks for your information.

So price for all our gas is quite good, and it's only the 74% of our oil that is being hit by lower prices.

With 26% hedged we currently with Brent at $63.8/bbl, have are selling at an average of of approximately $68.5/bbl.