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Regarding additional funding requirements that Rock ''may need'' in 2024,
I should be understand it could vary from $0, to in theory $151m.
I use a hypothetical, realistic scenario of $1.3b capex, $1b of finance,
meaning Rock need to find around $35m of funding for post FID, pre first oil expenditure.
This funding could be achieved, if required, in a number of ways as has been discussed.
It seems reasonable to hope that funding and much more, can be achieved by the unanimous OM award,
that slippery Italy are trying in vane I feel, to avoid.
Hi CitizenTS, I have a few people on filter, including Latics, who I do remember as being polite, but I thought was too repetitive. Here are some
ralph2010 Olliesky Kurgan2.0 Trop Michael2021 Godders99 Kurgan3 Bigred7 hydraides LaticsRule Mirasol
RBL is one option.
Rockhopper loan is another.
With FID, if the SP has risen to 50p, it would mean just a 10% dilution to raise $35m.
Sell off the OM debt to lawyers.
Negotiate an increase loan from Navitas, of sell off another 1 or 2 %
There are options for Rock
I think what Penny or Pound is referring to, and it is a legitimate observation,
is that Rock might need to find $35million under this possible scenario.
''$1.3bn (capex) - $1.0bn (finance) = a gross JV equity contribution of $300m. We are on the hook for 35% of that which is $105m but we get 2/3 of that in the Navitas loan leaving us with $35m.''
This is only after FID, which is expected in 2024, which is also the year the annulment case is meant to conclude.
We are easily 90%+odds on for FID I feel, so the question for 2024 is, where might we find $35million??
Good morning Buffit, I'm sure the 30 day limit will be applied, however I guess the doubt is over what 'the last submission on the request' is exactly. I am reasonably hopeful we may have a decision in the next day or so, but Italy are certainly in the business of stringing this out as long as possible.
Decision on Stay of Enforcement
Within 30 days after the later of the constitution of the Tribunal/ Committee or the last submission on the request
73(3)(d)
March 6, 2023 - The ad hoc Committee holds a hearing on the stay of enforcement of the award.
30 days from the 6th of March was last Wednesday. In theory it could have been announced on Thursday, however news does not always get announced that quickly, Friday and Monday holidays, so perhaps tomorrow or Wednesday if the 3o day limit was indeed from the 6th of March.
For what it is worth, I feel it is more likely Italy will be refused a stay.
after a surprise cut by Saudi's and Opec. Seems they aren't happy with mid $70's and acted accordingly to increase price.
With SL's life of field cost around $27.5/b, it remains the case, that Navitas are almost certain to sanction,
and I doubt they will be dragging their heels like PMO did !
Best not to underestimate HUM managements ability to foook it right up Bushy,
however, even HUM's mining mediocre management team will have learnt from Yani,
and should make a significant success of Kouroussa all things being equal.
Bushy.
Revenue is vanity,
Profit is sanity.
I think the evidence suggests they do have it wrong Bootledodger, however time, as always, will tell :)
'The Market most certainly doesn't think this is a done deal'
Nothing is a done deal until the deal is done, however I suspect the market does believe SL will be sanctioned, but perhaps, the timeframe for serious investing in Rock isn't quite there yet for their capital.
Just by looking at the facts, I concluded we had a very high % chances of Navitas signing the JV 90%+, and Rock winning the Arb, 80%+ I think. The stay of enforcement is harder to call.
For sanction %, just looking at the facts and figurers, Navitas's commitment, and the team they have set up, it is almost certain I feel, that they both want to sanction, and will sanction. The market either hasn't cottoned on yet, or more likely, is waiting for the optimum moment to invest.
may have been posted before, however if not, then Navitas now list the London/Sea Lion management team.
Does anyone seriously believe SL isn't going to be sanctioned next year??
Chanan Wolf -Sea Lion Project Manager
Ian Ramsay
Chief Operating Officer, Ian leads the United Kingdom business unit, currently progressing the development of the greenfield Sea Lion Development in the North Falklands basin and nearby surrounding prospects.
Aleks Armstrong
Vice President Subsurface, Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Ltd
Aleks leads the Reservoir and Geoscience functions and is currently progressing the development of the greenfield Sea Lion Development in the North Falklands basin and nearby surrounding prospects.
Thomas Stensgaard
Development Project Manager, Thomas leads the project team for the Navitas Operated greenfield Sea Lion Development in the North Falklands basin and nearby surrounding prospects, responsible for concept selection, design and construction. Thomas has over 30 years of experience of efficiently delivering offshore projects
https://www.navitaspet.com/management-team/
A regular reminder of why to keep your Rock shares.
If phase 1 production average is 75,000b/d (80k is the plan)
and life of field costs were $30/b ($27.6 is currently the estimate)
perhaps with POO at $75/b (Brent at $78 atm)
The maths are
75,000bbls x $45 = $3.375M revenue per day, $1.232Billion a year
royalty 9%, Corp Tax 26% = $801M profit
Rock 35% = $280m profit net to Rock per year.
Rocks current market cap is $80m, compare to hopefully in 4 years time $280m profit a YEAR, and for MANY YEARS !
This is why we are invested, and why we should not be selling our shares for peanuts prices like 10.5pence.
So what are you expecting??
I can not think of any news coming up?
Why??
Nothing expected on the Hum radar that I know about.
CitizenTS, the amount Rock have to find, to get to first oil is not actually fixed yet.
At a capex of $1.3B, it can range from $nothing, to $151M
I vaguely have an expectation figure that Navitas are looking at achieving around $1billion in project finance, I have no idea where this idea came from now, plus the remainder from Navitas and Rockhopper funding.
If $300m is left after $1,000m of project finance, and Navita will fund 2/3rds of our share, then Rock need to find $35m.
Other $figurers are available.
With Rock valued at $75m, amusingly it would be way cheaper for Italy to buy Rockhopper,
cancel the ICSID claim, pay off our lawyers, and then sell Rockhopper back to Harbour :)
I have not seen this before, although it might have been posted.
Navitas can utilize 'accumulated losses for tax purposes amounting to 700 million dollars'.
A bit dated at 28 Sept last year.
Navitas will formulate an up-to-date and efficient development plan for the reservoir, and will be able to utilize accumulated losses for tax purposes amounting to 700 million dollars.
Navits chairman Gideon Tadmor : "The global energy crisis and the geopolitical reality make the project particularly attractive."
The Navits Petroleum Partnership reports the completion of the Sea Lion transaction, and the acquisition of 65% of the rights in the oil licenses of the giant reservoir that contains approximately 712 million barrels of oil, with Navits' share of approximately 463 million barrels. Now, with the completion of the deal, Navits has been appointed the project operator, and will work to formulate an up-to-date and efficient development plan for the reservoir.
The Sea Lion project arouses great interest in England, and this is in light of the need of England and other European countries for energy security and the guarantee of alternative energy sources to the gas and oil imported from Russia. As part of the completion of the transaction, the required regulatory approvals were received from England and the Falklands, including the extension of the validity of the licenses by two years.
As part of the transaction, Navits acquired 100% of the shares of Premier, a subsidiary of Harbor Energy, and holds 65% of the rights in the Sea Lion oil reservoir as well as other discoveries and exploration licenses in the area. The purchase was made free of charge, and Navits even received $6 million to finance future expenses. The acquired company has accumulated carryforward losses in the total amount of approximately 700 million dollars, which can be used for tax purposes when production begins.
As part of the transaction, Navits has the option of reaching the final investment decision in the reservoir within a period of 5 years from the date of completion of the transaction and the possibility of an extension of up to 18 additional months. This period will allow Navits to promote an up-to-date and efficient development plan for the project, as well as work to formulate a financing package and examine the addition of an additional partner and operator to the project.
The Sea Lion proven oil discovery is located about 220 km north of the coast of the Falkland Islands in the southwest Atlantic Ocean, and includes proven oil resources in the amount of about 712 million barrels of oil (C2). Navits' share (65%) is 463 million barrels.
https://www.funder.co.il/article/139676
Also worth keeping on the very long radar, that whilst SL phase one and two are targeting 269mmbbls 2C,
we also have ''443 MMbbls 2C additional resources contained on the North Falkland Basin including Sea Lion and Isobel/Elaine''
To be fair to Market Dealer, calling first oil in 2026 was viewed with plenty of scepticism,
and it is not a certainty yet either if FID is H2 2024,
however it can certainly happen if FID is H1 2024 !
Good call, things are getting interesting :)