Member Info for SpaceHoppa

Of interest re FPSO contract discussion

Nov 2024 RNS - A MOU has been signed for the provision of a redeployed FPSO.

March 2025 RNS - Phases 1 and 2 will be developed using a redeployed upgraded FPSO that is expected to be secured upon **FID**. I'm sure Bluewater have no wish to dick around Navitas who may take their Aoka Mizu FPSO for a decade or more!

However, I'm getting nervous now and thinking of opening a short, reason? Well so far we've had scant solid news other than

Navitas jumped at the chance to own 65% of Sea Lion/Falklands acreage

Only improved life of field breakevens from approx $40 to $25/bbl

Only improved 2C from 791 MMbbls to 917 MMbbls

Tenders to build accommodation in Stanley requested ages ago.

FPSO Selected and only on a MOU

Long lead items ordered but not delivered

EIS and FDP done, ok that's a minor positive

FEED on FPSO done (thanks Mogger) but pah, FID still looks a long shot and Navitas have only spent $50m+ getting to this point. FID looks a long shot😉

Starmer UK Harmer would bend over backwards for his fellow EU dictators; however it matters not to Rock as they have paid to guarantee a Eur31/65m payout once ICSID make their decision.

Re funding, well $50m is a reasonable estimate of what Rock might need to fund 1st oil. Could be 0 or 160m but 50m is more realistic. Rock probably have $20m in the bank, and I don't think they need to hand over their share of costs on FID day one.

However if it was required, then getting a loan for $25m secured against OM would cover most of it and issuing just 15m shares would get the rest. Rocks FID costs are unlikrly to be a issue.

It's NOT official yet, however currently the AGM is currently scheduled to take place on Friday 27th June 2025 at 10am. The venue is The Clubhouse, Skew Bridge, Wilton Road, Salisbury, Wiltshire SP2 9NY.

Few of us hoping to meet somewhere in Salisbury the night before and I'm only paying for an expensive hotel so I can drink LTT's beer debts 🍺🍺

Hopefully we will be at least in the 60's by then.

Mrs S bought another 10k today @55.45 to round up to 50k, and in doing so doubled her average to 18.3p. She 'agonised' about what if I can get it for 54p if I wait. I said I told you to round up to 50k when the SP was in the teens so what difference does a penny make now and in 3 years will you care if it's 200p?? So on that theme I agree with others, absolutely every indication we have, is that FID is going to happen

= the project is significantly de-risked

=Rock will coin it in 3 years after

=Rock may become a TO target

=Rocks SP is likely to 3 to 4 bag by 1st oil

Moral of the story for her is you snooze you lose I told her. She's not talking to be now, result😁

Hi Nastynick, good to hear you are in a similar position to myself. Are you going to the AGM? The comment about taking a 'juicy' pre bid offer is unlikely to occur so I'm very likely to keep a substantial holding for many a year. FWIW, my feelings once not if, we have FID secured, then the most advantageous course for investors is .....

1. Do not sell a share as baring a significant mishap, the SP is highly likely to triple by first oil as a minimum, and more likely quadruple or more. Navitas are up six fold in their run up to Shenny first oil and this is a bigger 'game changer' for us, than Shenny is to them.

2. Buy more for the likely gains as per number 1.

Happy to see us still mid 50's and looking forward to the OM award next week when ICSID wake up from their coma and tell ROI to take a flying !!

LassondeCurve, I'm getting on a little bit now and I guess it's about bailing and being comfortable. Half a million would be a comfortable early retirement however everyone is different and I understand the desire to see this journey through to its new oiley chapter.

Ovets, I'm 99% certain SL will FID, hence the think long and hard comment for a pre FID £1 bid. If I was 100% certain of FID, then I definitely would not sell at a £1

Hi LassondeCurve, £1 and is half a million. I'd have to think hard if that was offered today, after FID it would have to be higher.

Oh and BTW, being offered 55.04 for 520k at the mo, so shares still very much in demand !

It would be interesting to ask the BODs/SM at the AGM if he thinks Rock will be taken over before 1st 🛢

I hope not and don't think we will be targeted, but a juicy offer at somepoint would give me cause to consider cashing in and retiring.

Just looked at the charts and we seem to be close to the top end of the rising trend. It will be interesting to see if we break above trend, which I think we would need some news like OM aware to achieve, meander around current levels until the trend channel catches up to current price, or drift to lower end of channel which would be 45-50's. I'm thinking we'll drift around current levels for a while.

MD, as JEBR correctly penned, Rock are expected to repay the loan using 85% of their profits. This would leave Rock with approx $38m to do as they wish. Navitas are planning for 1st oil approx end of 2027.

I personally expect mid 2028 is probably the earliest, however the SP will almost certainly rise in anticipation of first oil, as Navita's 6 fold increase towards Shenny 1st oil has shown.

I agree Citizen. The vast majority of the first oil capex will be loans etc. I think Rock will need to find/fund somewhere between $40 to $50m.

CitizenTS, I think LTT's $500m figure was IF the loans agreement didn't transfer to a possible new owner.

Rocks 35% of $737m estimated profit is $257m NET. This is Rockhopper profit after 12 months 50k/bbls/day production.

Year 2 would be the same, approx $257m profit.

Rock would make $514m in profit, in 2 years. $514m is more than our $490m estimate costs to get to first oil.

Hope this helps. Working out have been posted before.

Interesting LTT as I presumed the Navitas loans agreement would be with Rockhopper, so a new owner of Rockhopper would carry the same rights and obligations. I also think the issue of FIG tax liabilities, which Rock do not believe is owed, wouldn't be a big issue for an acquiring company when looking at the big picture of 35% of 917mmbbls 2C and a whole new basin probably full of oil. Another question for the AGM.

Morning LTT. Regarding this bit of your post 'The time to pounce on RKH is at first oil or just after first I think, as anyone trying to get them now, would lose the loans from Navitas.' I am not sure that is true, the agreement is with Rockhopper LTD, however a new owner of Rockhopper LTD would still have those agreements via Rock LTD.

That said, I wont believe in a bid for Rock until I see an RNS, and nor do I want one yet.

With the quadrupling of the value of our investments since Dec, I feel many of us are feeling very overweigh in Rockhopper shares and also as a % of overall wealth. I had planned to reduce my holding by 20%by 50p, instead I've just increased it by 20,000.

It's wise to keep a close eye on whats happening with Navitas in particular, as well as the Rock, but so far every thing I read (thanks to those finding out all the titbits) I can't think of a good reason to sell other than to manage risk.

I feel, given Nav's long term interest in Sea Lion, added to all the work and money spent on Sea Lion, plus their leaders recent statements regarding being on track for FID and how the Sea Lion development will 'forever' change the Falklanders lives for the better, even the Israel Gov't having a 1% royalty interest in Nav's revenue etc. means this logically is as close to a racing certainty as you get with O&G investments.

Talk of £2 does seem fanciful right now when we're at 54p, however after FID and close to 1st oil, I would say that seems more likely than not.

#Come on ICSID sloths #Enjoy the journey #2025 The Year of the Rock

Navitas are not the kind of company to omit having decent cyber security, already however no harm in asking that at the AGM and closer to the time we can get list of questions to ask the board.

Good to see the Bid briefly touch 56p 3 minutes before the close and 56.6 is another, slightly higher high.

Be good to see you Morforus. Think I'll keep a note of who from here, hope to attend. So far

SpaceHoppa

SpacesMate

LongTermThinker

LTT's Friend

CanYouDigIt

Morforus

Thanks CanYouDigIt. I also hold with H-L and was planning on asking them. I was always curious as to what the point of a show of hands were for at the AGM, as one hand might have 1 share, and another might hold 1million?? I'll probably vote via H-L beforehand.

LTT, my hotel location was a factor as I know my mate likes a good session. I'm travelling from Exeter so not too far for me thankfully. 5 going so far, any more? and yes, Supra3 I'm sure people will report back.