Member Info for SpaceHoppa

Hi LTT, sorry for the late reply as didn't have the time at work. I will also be in Salisbury on the 26th with my friend/fellow Rock investor, and booked into the Cricket Field House hotel, which is spitting distance from the venue. Not sure where people want to meet up but we're happy to get a taxi into town if that is where most people will be. Is there a normal meeting venue? I'll give that French Champaign carp a miss thanks, should you owe me a drink, and stick with good British beer🍻 Not sure who else is going ??? however I suspect it will be the best attended AGM for many a year, and it will be good if OM was finally put to bed before hand.

Great to see the SP close above 55p, even if volume is low. The smooth path to 60p is now open and I would expect that to happen. Like others, I suspect most people are rightly keeping hold of their shares as it is logical to think the SP will keep rising towards the expected FID post Shenny 1st oil and 'mid year'.

Of Note, I had an email from Rockhopper re the AGM, they said 'if you hold your shares through a nominee you will need to get a letter of rep from them to attend, speak and vote at the meeting.' I'll clarify what that means with them but I did not know this !

Heard back from Rock re above, and the ''Provisional'' date is 27th June at 10am Salisbury. Please be aware that although this date is unlikely to change, it is not 100% confirmed. I'm planning on going and will stay over in Salisbury for the night as I have all LTT's debts to drink🍺🍺 Look forward to seeing many others there too hopefully.

53.2pence close today, is I think the highest close this decade🐧

P777, this is definitely a more realistic working of what cash Rock need to get to first oil.

Example of $1.4bn (capex) - IF only $1.0bn of debt finance, we would need a gross JV equity contribution of $400m. Rock are on the hook for 35% of that which is $140m but we get 2/3 of that in as the Navitas loan, leaving us with $46.7m to find to 1st oil.

Rock had $24m back in Oct, and will get from the OM award guarantee, a ‘’minimum’’ of $/Euro31m, could be $60m+. Cash in bank might be say $18m now, so Rock has $49m to $78m in cash once OM pays out. The minimum figure is higher than the actual funding requirement example above.

Given the above agreement with Navitas, who seem comfortable enough with the financing of Sea Lion to ‘not require’ another JV partner to come in, then it unlikely Rock need any more money before 1st oil, other than day to day admin expenses etc

In theory 643m Rockhopper shares is all there will be.

20k selling at 54p now so already £60 up after trading fees. Looks like the train to 60p is closing it's doors in preparation for the next stop😊🐧

Demand still there, they will 520k for 53.55

20,000 at 53.55p.

Not convinced we will break this weak resistance level today, however feel it is likely we will see 60p to 70p on the run up to the expected FID news. Navitas have indicated a few times FID is on track for this summer/Q3 so imo we have a buying window before this becomes main stream news.

Agree, anything that boosts the oil price will be directly good for Navitas, and indirectly good for Rock.

It is true that Rocks management over the years could have brought more shares, that's a complaint that most shareholders of most AIM companies! It is also true that they haven't sold much either. Ultimately it is their money, and in this instance, their big mistake not to have dived in feet first sub 10p as many posters here did. What's more important is that management/Sam have steered Rock to the cusp of great things, and are now financially strong now with comparatively few shares in issue.

On that note, I have only one small concern left, that institutions will try to 'encourage' management into a equity for cash deal so as to take a decent % stake in Rockhopper that they would find very hard to get on the open market. 'Hey Sam, don't you want $100m for a pre 1st oil drill campaign on Isobel, we'll buy your paper at a 10% discount, wink wink'. SM and Rock so far haven't gone down this route, however ii's are bloodsuckers!!

On a positive note, thanks Tincan for the Hereandnow post. Gideon has all but just said, again, that FID is happening this summer. I suspect the SP will move positively on Monday, however if it doesn't I may pick up another 20k for a trade to FID.

NastyNick, this is a reasonably accurate prediction of 'profit per year', using reasonable assumptions. It has been updated as new information came to light, like how much capex can be used to write off taxes. Its a handy reminder to keep hold of your shares and useful to any new investors, which I am sure there are a few, lurking in the background.

Phase 1 production plan is 50,000b/d. The maths with POO at $65bbl and Opex costs at US$17.

(Life of field costs are $25/bbl)

50k bbls/d x $47 = $2.35M revenue per day,

Say 345 days production a year to allow for down time = $810million gross profit a year

Royalty on turnover is 9% so $737m profit before tax

( Corp Tax is 26% only after the $1.7B allowable for tax purposes)

Rocks 35% of $737m is $257m net Rockhopper profit after 12 months production.

Year 2 would be the same and still no corp tax so in theory Rock would make $514m in profit, in 2 years. $514m is more than our $490m estimate costs to get to first oil.

I've emailed Rock to see if they can give an idea of what days they have in mind for the AGM. Hopefully it will prompt them to announce.

LTT, I can give you generous terms of double or quits if 1st oil 'before' 25th June😊

Just my two pennithworth. Navitas's MO is to buy into fully appraised oil fields and develop. Isobel discoveries etc are not appraised. Perhaps they need to alter the agreement to allow for exploration, as BB3 alluded to??

For the record, Rock do not "need" any more "funds". Rock probably have circa $20m in the bank. Should get approx $30 -65m from the OM settlement.

Also what Rock need cash wise for first oil is UNKNOWN and dependant on how much Navitas arranges from debt finance. It is factually incorrect for anyone to state Rock "need more funds".

For the record, despite everything that's happened in the world in recent weeks, and oil prices dropping to low $60/bbl, the Rock is just 10%/5p off it's decade highs, and we must eventually have sloth ICSID conclude the OM case, netting Rock $30m/$65m in cash which is significant.

I feel it's almost inconceivable Navitas wont fire the FID starting gun H2 after spending getting the FPSO, long lead items, EIS, FDP and FIG Gov't ducks all lined up and investing $50m+ so far and I've never been more relaxed about my Rock investment as I am now😎 Have a nice BH everyone.

PS Off topic, I don't have MD on filter yet, however I refrain from the need to respond to his every post. I would be good I feel, if others we more restrained as well !

As someone who holds a reasonable amount of Rock, it's true large swings mean large paper money made or lost, ie circa £20k down today. My personal method of dealing with this is to value my Rock shares at way below headline figure, ie on my spreadsheet I have Rock valued at just 40p, so unless it drops below this figure, in my simple mind I haven't lost anything today and still have a buffer 🤗

As with LTT, I see no reason to believe anything has changed wrt FID. Also the rise up to 50p was on very low volume, todays drop is also on low volume, less than 3m so far today.

Still can't believe its been OVER A YEAR !! since this

April 11, 2024 - April 12, 2024 The ad hoc Committee holds a hearing on annulment in Madrid.

Hi LTT, just having lunch. What was the proposed bet? First oil before 1st of June you don't owe me a drink, after that you owe two? I think there is a good chance oil will flow in May but am happy to let you try and win your pint back 🤝

As the saying goes, and has been the case since the orange one gave everyone a chance to buy sub 40p once again 3 weeks ago. Yesterday we touched 50p again and I don't see it as a resistance level as we went through it quite easily at the start of the month.

Looking again at the longer chart I see 60 to 63 as the next reasonable resistance level and expect us to probably head for that area as we get closer to Navitas's Shenny oil production. I originally planned to have off-loaded 20% of my shares at the 50p level, but have managed to cling on to them all as despite the my sever overweigh position in Rockhopper, there appears to me, nothing on the foreseeable horizon to suggest selling any now would be the right decision.

DD77 ''I think we’ll only see a rise to 60-70p when FID gets announced''.

I would take that happily seeing as the big rise will follow on as we get closer to first oil, ant that we were only 13.5bpence a few months back.

2025, year of the 🐧

Early days ChessGambiteer, however I suspect you are some resurrected deramper that is likely heading for the filter bin.

Apologies, this is the Ombrina Mare Insurance Rns

Whilst both the Company and its advisors remain confident of its position it has decided, in line with normal market practice, that insuring to protect shareholders against loss resulting from an annulment of the Award to be the most prudent course of action.

The insurance policy will ensure that, in the event that the Italian Republic succeeds in having the entire Award annulled or in the event of partial annulment, the combination of the Tranche 2 payment1 and the insurance payout shall entitle Rockhopper to a total no less than €31 million.

The essential information is in the Rns XKR2022.

Oh and I echo happy St, Georges day, and a nice start to the week SP wise too, they will take 500k in one go at 48.75 atm.

Ø Tranche 2 - Additional contingent payment of ?65 million upon a successful annulment outcome. Should the Award be partially annulled and the quantum reduced as a result, then Tranche 2 will be reduced such that the amounts under Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 shall be adjusted downward on a pro-rata basis. For example, if the quantum of the Award is reduced by 20%, then the amounts under Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 shall be reduced by 20%. For the avoidance of doubt, the amounts under Tranche 1 and Tranche 2 shall not reduce below ?45m in any circumstance.

Ø Tranche 3 - Potential payment of 20% on recovery of amounts in excess of 200% of the Specialist Fund's total investment including costs.

· Tax will also be payable on Rockhopper's share of the proceeds from the monetisation of the Award. These calculations are complex and are unlikely to be resolved for some months but Rockhopper currently estimates that the approximate effective tax rate of between 10-15% is likely.

The Specialist Fund will cover all costs related to the Arbitration from the date of this announcement.