Member Info for SpaceHoppa

I note the talk of 45p being resistance, and today it was, however looking at the historical charts there is no evidence of it.

I see 43/44pence as resistance but that has been broken today. Above this level we should have a fairly easy ride to high 50's, although transition through 50p will probably be a phycological issue.

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChart.html?sharechart=RKH&share=Rockhopper

Apologies if posted already, nothing new but more coverage is good for the SP, and the closer we get to FID, the more we will get.

https://en.mercopress.com/2025/03/26/the-falkland-islands-have-become-surprisingly-diverse-reports-the-spectator?utm_source=feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_content=main&utm_campaign=rss&ct=t(RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN)

LOL LTT, get it now, thought you'd lost it for a moment though😁

130p is less than Rock will be worth in the future, but a very tidy increase on the present, hence my wouldnt be too upset.

44pence is starting to feel like a newly hatched weak support line

Wouldn't be....

With an average about 14.5p I would be too upset, but agree with others there is more valve in the long run keeping Rock shares. Which leads on to my next point, that its tempting to offload a few, especially if with a low average or over weight, however look at the risk reward of keeping it until at least FID, which most now know is all but certain to happen. 45p is still cheap, and waiting a few months carry's very little risk, and quite likely decent reward !!!

Dont be tempted imo.

Re Rocks lawyers view that OM is about ready to drop. I wonder 8f that is based on a wink and a nod Paul, or wishful thinking. Thanks for info though.

SP certainly having a proper pop at leaving lower 40's today. This is going to be one mega prosperous happy journey to first oil once FID is signed off🎉

Good point Ralph, we are getting close to new ISA season.

Paul, did they indicate that timeframe recently?

Early days, however it will be interesting to see if we start a new tight trading range between perhaps 40 to 43p. I feel pressure is building up to break above 43/44p as we edge closer and closer to the almost certain FID in the next few months, but there has been a resistance around this level as traders expected to pocket a few £'s selling and buying back a bit lower.

I don't think that is going to hold much longer and I can see 50's is much more likely in the coming months than 30's.

Anyway, I'm still enjoying this train ride and still managing to keep all of my shares intact despite being way way over weight

Navitas selling 10% to Beacon, who they know and work with well, would suit me. Not in favour of Rock reducing more than say down to 33%.

I neglected to highlight I only assumed $1B of the $1.4B Capex is tax allowable, hence my $1.7B figure, however it could be up to $400m more as he implied few exceptions would be expected.

I emailed earlier, and had a reply from Rockhopper with regards to the $1.4billion Capex costs to 1st oil. With the the usual caveats that tax can be complex etc the reply was basically that they expect ''MOST of the costs to be allowable'' for tax purposes !!!

Others may have known or suspected the above, but it is good to be confirmed and I feel, significant to bottom line profits as follows !!

Assume 50k bbls/d x $47 = $2.35M revenue per day,

Say 345 days production a year to allow for down time = $810million gross profit a year

Royalty on turnover is 9% so $737m profit before tax

( Corp Tax is 26% only after the $1.7B allowable for tax purposes)

Rocks 35% of $737m is $257m net Rockhopper profit after 12 months.

Year 2 would be the same and still no corp tax so in theory Rock would make $514m in profit, in 2 years, an additional $87m than I originally calculated. $514m is more than our $490m estimate costs to get to first oil.

Hi LTT, I hope the following bit of information I'll post may help the SP a little on it's slow burn upward trend😊

I wonder if the Rock SP with this Navitas update will follow the same trend as the Q3 update, and steadily rise over a prolonged period, as opposed to spike up. Happy with rise so far.

I'm not 100% sure either now, however it's the first time I remember 150k/day being mentioned so that's good either way😁

Pauldrayton, I'm hoping a close 44p+ will be enough to convince sellers that the resistance is broken and a path to 50 range is on the cards.

Hi Markednmbr1,

Happy to be corrected however I see a change as previously they had said

'The long term potential for the Basin could utilise up to 3 FPSOs with a total production of approximately 120,000 bbls/d'.

So, to sum up todays understated but significant news,

1. Navitas sound like they intend to ‘accelerates later phases of the development programme’

2. Resources are steady at 917mmbbls C2

3. Linked to number 1 ‘a significant number of barrels have been moved from 'Development On Hold' to 'Development Pending' classification’

4. Peak production rate of Phase 1 + Phase 2 seemed to have increased from 120,000 bbls/day to 150,000 bbls/day

5. Confirmation FPSO is on a MOU pending FID.

I’m very happy with this update and if we can break above 43p then 50p is easy to achieve

#Don'tSellCheap

-------------------------

The report reflects work carried out to mature the resource base and accelerates later phases of the development programme in the build up to FID. Overall resources at Sea Lion remain unchanged. As a result of the work carried out, a significant number of barrels have been moved from 'Development On Hold' to 'Development Pending' classification.

• Phase 1 + Phase 2 peak production rate 55,000 bbls/day, increasing up to 150,000 bbls/day once all phases have been developed

Navitas continues to estimate Capex to first oil on phase 1 of c$1.4 bn and in this regard has entered into a number of FEED agreements including an MOU for an FPSO which is currently operating in the North Sea, along with various agreements relating to the provision of subsea equipment. Navitas's target for FID also remains mid-year 2025.

Currently in auction afaik.

'The selling price currently displayed is higher than the buying price. This can occur temporarily for a variety of reasons; shortly before the market opens, after the market closes or because of extraordinary price volatility during the trading day.'

Prior to that I could sell 500k at 41.6p, which is quite high for that size, and shows at that time demand was strong.

Happy for anyone to borrow those calculations JEBR, and to improve them if there is anything not quite right.

The figurers going forward are staggeringly good. I would say FID is all but a certainty, so we just need the balls to hang on to our shares and not surrender them too cheaply.

50p by end of March did someone say 🤞🐧

Hopefully there will be a copy of this later on from Navitas, with subtitles.

An investor call regarding the financial results for December 31, 2024 will be held on March 24, 2025 at 2:00 PM.

I liked this bit

'Navitas's target for FID also remains mid-year 2025.'