Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Oil,
Your statement below either shows you were ignorant of Centrica, or you decided to ignore Centrica to try and mislead to make a point??
' I cannot honestly recall any being successful or at least bringing any value to shareholders. In fact, the opposite happens. The sp dropped and dropped and dropped. '
Also, Oil you said
'Spacehoppa.
Are you serious?
When Centrica announced the buybacks, energy prices were at their lowest and its sp was one of the lowest in the history of the company! '
Centrica announced only this 10 Nov - Trading update and share repurchase programme
Their share price was sub 40pence a while ago in early 2020
Their SP was 83p on the day the buy back was announced, and is 92pence today
Energy (oil) prices have been over $60/bbl for 18 months.
Mr Oil, you said
'Of all the companies who resorted to share buyback programmes, I cannot honestly recall any being successful or at least bringing any value to shareholders. In fact, the opposite happens. The sp dropped and dropped and dropped.'
I refer you to Centrica, and their upward share price, and that they have started a share buy back !
Auson, I mainly post on the Rock board and filtered the trolls there as well
ralph2010OllieskyKurgan2.0TropMichael2021Godders99Kurgan3Bigred7hydraidesLaticsRuleMirasolSmartie06.
Time is too short to waste reading repeat dross.
I feel you and others are correct in viewing the removal of uncertainty as significant.
Time to buy is after the fall that the uncertainty has caused.
HBR are a well run profitable company, they can now get on with the job of making money and navigate around as best as possible now knowing what the rules are.
Smartie, I have only been on this board for 20 minutes and already I've assessed you as
a non shareholding deramping troll.
You obviously do not hold but feel we all need the benefits of your 'opinion'.
Congratulations, you are the fastest poster to ever reach my filter list !!
I agree Happy, getting out of the Falklands and Sea Lion project was short sighted I feel,
however they could still take a minority stake if Navitas and Rockhopper were willing to share.
I am not sure they will though.
Smartie06, you may be right, but at £3.36, and PoO over $90,
I regard HBR as a buy.
1500 shares at an average of £3.34.
W.Tax was priced in and SP had fallen to reflect what was just announced.
Company are still v.profitable.
With the buy back supporting the price I obviously hope and expect a steady rise from here.
Hi Donalb, the annual inflation rate in Italy rose to 11.9 percent in October.
Using your figures ''12 month Euribour is 2.686% + 4 % = 6.686 %'', means their debt is falling in real terms for the RoI, hence my comment that the interest on the debt is not a punishment considering current inflation, and inflation needs to drop a lot, and -or interests rates rise a lot.
Hi DEX,
you are probably very right that Italy will string this out as long as is possible, however their remains a small opportunity for a negotiated ''early'' settlement if Italy believe their annulment proceeding is virtually certain to be rejected.
The request to annul is almost certainly a forlorn hope, however its possible that Italy are just stringing it out in the hope they could negotiate a lower settlement, and claim a face saving win.
The interest rate on the award isn't sufficiently punishing in this high inflation environment, to encourage Italy to settle early at any rate.
Thanks for posting CantSellNow
very much appreciated !
After a quick read it sounds like the Italian appointed lawyer is saying
'I can see why the arbitration panel came to the conclusions it did, however if this, that and other things had been different, then a different conclusion and award would have been appropriate.'
Seems he's not really disagreeing much, just spouting off probably because the ROI is crappping itself over a potential flood of other claims.
The relatively minor £3m Win Fee is a distraction from why we are invested in Rock.
Even the huge arbitration award of Euro 200m is just a distraction from the ultimate prize.
The gigantic prize is FID and eventually 35% of a producing Sea Lion.
Hypothetically at 50k/bbl/day, POO at $80 and breakeven costs at $50, that over $547m gross profit EVERY year !!
$356m gross to Navitas, $191m to Rock. Rockhopper are valued at $66m today.
Navitas can clearly see the prize and a reminder this is what they said not so long ago.
''We are very excited to become the official owner of 65% of the Sea Lion discovery in the Falklands, and the nominated operator, adding ~463 million barrels of oil equivalent (2C) in reserves to our portfolio. This transaction demonstrates yet again the winning combination of innovation and hard work we strongly push for in Navitas.
To our partner, Rockhopper Exploration PLC and its CEO, sam moody, we wish a productive and successful journey, up until production and the full realization of Sea Lion's enourmous potential value.''
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/navitas-petroleum_innovation-collaboration-energy-activity-6980796362799865856-fM6b?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
Navitas don't need Rockhopper for their financial clout, or knowledge on how to set up and run a 50,000b/d oil field,
however they do need Rock for their knowledge of the Falklands/Sea Lion, their relationship with FIG and their status as a UK company.
Enjoy the bumpy ride.
Oh FFS.
At 30 June 2022, the Group had cash of US$9.1 million
Warrants exercised to date, add $0.45m
Warrants outstanding before end 2023 approx 98m, worth nearly $8.4m if 85% are exercised
9.1+0.45+8.4 = $17.95million
If the £3m was paid, and taking off the $4m G&A, hypothetically by end 2023 that leaves $8.5m in the bank for 'Others'
We all agree Cyan, that the detail of the WIN FEE, should have been made public sooner,
however you are boring the pants out of this now !
Rock can raise more cash IF/WHEN needed
via equity,
or partial/sell the loan,
or sell another few % of Sea Lion,
or they get paid by Italy etc etc.
All of it doesn't matter if Navitas pull the rug, and if they did, and I very much doubt they will, then Rock would be toasted and this obsession over the £3m is irrelevant either way.
'Not unreasonable to let people know don't you think?'
On that I agree, and I have said it would have been better to announce the Euro 3million fee payable in the Arb win Rns, if not before. However regardless of that detail, Rock made the right decision to go ahead with the deal they struck.
Your issue is you/we didn't know the details, that is a fair observation, but it's a moot point.
10.006 v 10.028
and I can sell 500k in one shot !
Good to see Rock above 10pence again
Cyan,
We don't know for sure how the conversation went with these top class lawyers,
however back then it seems this is what was offered, and outcomes explained.
One, Rock told No win No fee. End of story
Two, $25m plus win you pay £3m, but be aware it will take a while to get the money
Three, We strongly think 100 to 200million Euro net to you is possible, but £3m is still payable and you still might have to wait.
Do you want to go ahead, or go with Cyan's view and say naar, I could well win Euro200million but I'm not going to risk it for £3m.
I am very glad they took the deal as logically it was a very strong reward v risk call. It was the right call.
'I am surprised ( putting it mildly) that award enforcement costs were not part of the 'no win no fee' deal.'
Cyan, that presumes Rock could dictate the terms !
Given their poor financial situation and their hopeless operating partner,
I'd say the deal Rock struck with a top notch team, was quite reasonable.
SB, there are two point there.
One, is the need to resolve the matter asap, which is up to ICSID alone and can't be influenced however much we want it to be speedy.
Two, is the likelihood of an annulment, which looking at past attempts, looks extreme straw clutching and pure delaying tactics by the RoI.
The market dislikes uncertainty, but the fundament case for Rock remains the same, PoO is very strong, huge oil field ready to go and a strong committed capable JV partner.
SecretBlue, the essential word is IF
'(6) IF the award is annulled'
There is a very slim chance the award will be annulled so the issue is very very unlikely to even be a possibility for Italy to have any chance of a new Tribunal.
''We may have around $10m cash now and our company expects basic costs of $4 m pa going forward.
How much will we need?''
I don't know how much we will need, however there are or were I think, around 100m warrants at 9pence issued.
I suspect the majority of those will get exercised, perhaps 80 -90m, which means another $8.5m in The Rock bank before the end of 2023.
WRT Sea Lion, I dont see Navitas as the sharing kind.