Member Info for SpaceHoppa

For 2025, our hedging

increases with c.26 per cent of our estimated

liquids production hedged at an average price

of $77/bbl and c.48 per cent of our estimated

European natural gas production hedged at an

average price of $14/mscf.

Question, the POO hedge is obviously in the money, but is the 48% of gas at $14/mscf ??

Ther is blood on the streets-Warren Buffit.

The question is timing when enough blood has been spilt??

At somepoint, probably the US Market will switch from selling, to buying, and then we will see large swings back up. Nobody knows when that will happen, but it is often after a sharp fall, like today perhaps???

Hi Supra3, I ticked up your earlier post asking Henrygroucho to say why he feels that way. I like his enthusiasm, however I like to see a reason why a view is held.

Rock atm, without substantive news, may just drift along with the market sentiment, but fundamentally Rockhopper have an underlying advantageous (Navitas/profit margin/tax regime/FIG support) strength to them that is likely to make them resilient.

Interesting video of his personal strategy however everyone's risk appetite and positions are different.

I personally don't see the POO as an issue even if it drops a lot from mid 60's. Sea Lion is 3 years away from first oil at best, Trump will be in his final year and this current trade spat will resolved itself out fairly quickly imo. The very protectionist EU are making mood music about negotiating away the tariffs with the USA, and considering they export $200B to US more than they import, like China, it's too their advantage they level the playing field.

The only new issue I see is that IF POO is lower for an extended period, then Navitas will not make as much profit from Shenandoah production, although still a substantial amount, and this MIGHT push FID back a quarter. I've been suggesting H2 anyway as Q3 or Q4 is more likely than say June I feel.

I like his forecast of 100 to 200p on FID, a bit too optimistic in the early years I feel. A shame we had the Trump effect which was more extreme than most had expected, but Rock we're above 50p and had a clear path to 60's. We still have a clear path to high 60's, but confidence in world trade might have to come back first, or the full OM award, or FID.

Hsbilkhu, it's like Halifax. If you want free livestream prices it's people like ADVFN or as mentioned, IG Index CFD where you can put companies into a watch list and it live streams, albeit with a slightly decreased Bid Price and increased Ask price.

Re Rock, well they would have taken all my 500,000 shares at the close for 38.5ish which was a surprise, and shows liquidity is still good.

You pay when you trade but there are no monthly fees for a Fund & Share Account, you do for an ISA or SIPP account.

I have a £100 in IG Index CFD account and there you can see live prices for free, or via my H-L account for a more accurate quote. Currently showing 39.40p | Buy: 40.10p

Shares are starting to recover slightly and 'I wouldn't want to be out at the weekend' 🤪

Well we are back to where we were 14 days ago and at the time I was very happy with 38p. Not so much now having tasted 50p but it's a long term game and things will get back to normal eventually.

Bloobird made an good observation regading POO not affecting Rock, but would affect Navitas. I checked just now and Navita's breakevens at Shenandoah is $15/bbl. So they will still coin it in once up and running.

Hsbilkhu if still out of the loop, Bid now 38.7p

Hsbilkhu

37.9 to 38.4

Navitas have already sunk $50m into SL and signed a MOU for the FPS and contracts for the FPS refit. POO now isn't a factor for them as such, it's what they think it will be from 2028 to 2050+, and with a life of field cost of sub $25/bbl there is plenty of leeway.

Agree about ISA allowance having minimal affect, but it could add a penny or two.

That would be true EG777, if Rock were producing oil, however we are 3 years out from that and oil could halve in between and have no actual affect on our bottomline. Rock dropped imo, because everywhere else dropped and we have had a 350% rise since Dec.

In other not new news, but good to read if not seen before

''Navitis also announced that it has signed the necessary agreements for the development of the Sea Lion project (819 million barrels of oil), which Palm has already defined as "the next big thing for Navitis", including signing an agreement with the owner of a floating production and storage facility (FPSO) currently operating in the North Sea and intended for use in the project, and signing an agreement with contractors for the manufacture of subsea equipment and subsea pipelines to connect the facility to the production infrastructure. According to the updated resource assessment for the Sea Lion project, prepared by the external appraiser NSAI, the projected discounted cash flow from the project for the partnership's share has doubled and amounts to $3.6 billion.''

https://www.bizportal.co.il/capitalmarket/news/article/20014976

A good question Mr Curry, and probably a combination of

A receding tide lowers all boats

We had increased 375% since early Dec

Jittery world markets encourages a flight to cash

Many sharp falls are short lived and can present a buying opportunity. It is too early to call this one yet.

A 5 or 6p Trump inspired correction is neither here nor there in the long run up to first oil. I doubt this will drop as far as 40p, however world markets can do strange things to all shares. I wont be losing any sleep over it.

Back for 9000 more at 193.88. Hopefully once the markets calms down, we'll have a bounce back up, and if not, we'll the divi is nice 👍

Didn't know about the Israeli banking connections, thanks for the information. Quick search

Mizrahi Tefahot Bank Ltd. 0.32% - Bank Mizrahi-Tefahot is the third-largest bank in Israel.

First International Bank of Israel Ltd. 0.04%

Bank of Singapore Ltd. 1.179 %

Not sure how up to date this is

In theory what happens now shouldn't make too much difference to our plans for 1st oil in 3 years time but I thought we might drop along with the general market, so far it seems Rocks SP is holding quite firm at the moment.

Just my opinion, other views available, however I see the chance of Navitas willing pulling the plug on Sea Lion as vanishingly small !!

It is too important to their future growth, it's far too valuable an asset given it's size, tax regime, and life of field lifting costs, and they've invested too much time, effort and $50m to get it to the cusp of FID, to change their minds.

Only if there was a total disaster at Shenandoah, highly unlikely, would there be significant postponement of SL FID. A delay could happen if there was an issue getting finance, again unlikely, or a JV partner Nav really wanted onboard, who needed more time for due diligence.

FID imho is odds on to happen in H2, and there will probably be a buying frenzy at levels a decent amount higher than 50p, so imo #Don'tSellCheap

The SP has risen around 50% from 33.5p a little over 3 weeks ago so a period of consolidation is quite healthy. Volume of 1.7m so far today is low.

A possibly scenario is we knock around 48/51p for a while, or drift lower on low volume, or kick off again, especially if we get any positive peripheral news or OM. I'm thinking it'll take a breather around current level, + or - a penny or 2.

I would love to know what Isobel has to offer, as it seems quite possible it will match or exceed Sea Lion. That said I don't think Nav will poke any holes in to it before drilling all the required holes for 1st oil, and that seems prudent to me. An additional well or two afterwards if the finances are in place, is the sensible time to explore, and Navitas seem incredibly sensible and restrained in how they operate.

Now, time for some sleep and hopefully another day when investor are restrained in not selling their shares cheaply to the Johnny come lately crowd that want your shares.

Bid got to 51.2p before last few minute spread increase. Still looking good for a crack towards 60p in the near term.

Be nice if ICSID came in as expected with $60m, but the SP is rightly very perky anyway. Also it looks like my EoY prediction is winning now🎉