Member Info for Sotolo

Tharisa, I too am hugely impressed, and that you bother to read this board, and even post. However it is helped by having so many intelligent and knowledgable contributors, and none of the vitriol and off topic banter of other boards. On which not lovely to see you here Prof, I sold another £75k of Cey to buy more THS this week as seemed so absurdly cheap.

Tiger of course you are right and they are stunning results $65m for first half and at these metal prices second half I’ll be unite a bit higher, so could be an amazing $150m? However the question is, as they were already known, what if anything they’ll do to the share price? Hopefully finally it will rise

Yes good news on W Africa indeed

4cent dividend and earnings of 21cents a share. In sterling 15p earnings, so PE around 5, and nearly 3p dividend around 2% so not huge but not bad. As they say no surprise

Actually the gold price is around 6% lower in sterling that counts for our sterling share price, taphan Jan, and 6% off the gold price is about 15% of our profits and hence our share price, so our current share price equates to one in January of about 145. so actually we’ e done rather well and when/if gold gets back to January price I think we should be decently over 135, more like 150, because everything is looking up for this company. Now if gold got back to last Aug which is about a 15% rise that should increase our profits and hence share price around 45% to about 175p. We are thus still suffering a bit from the wall collapse but not that much and the market is beginning to look forward to our sunny uplands imho

Lucky indeed it will be interesting to see where or when rhodium settles, and we haven’t a clue, I read a brilliant investing book once, by a very successful old fund manager, that said a price is a combination of the numbers and the story. That applies to both Ru and THS, with THS the numbers are brilliant but the story is still a Cyprus (!) based company so maybe slightly wide boy, investing in complex S Africa and Zimbabwe, intent on putting profit back in the ground rather than to shareholders, and with a sword of chrome tax wiping out a lot of that profit; seems to me we need a change of story to a brilliantly run growth company that makes great and profitable investment decisions and is poised for bigger things. I sincerely hope tomorrow helps change the story as the number side is brilliant. All imho

Plus 135 was too good to miss, especially as over 10% down in a couple of days, when stinking results should come tomorrow, sold ITV to but them

I bought more because as said Tharisa would be worth at least this imho with zero rhodium contribution. Just I don’t think the market realises this and even tomorrow may not, tho of course I hope it does. My view remains that it is an absence of buyers, as much as any sellers, who remain worried about excessive Rh prices, chromium tax, and the company investing so much profit for growth rather than returning more to us in bigger dividends. However there is a better than 50/50 chance that this will reap mid term dividends and the company will become bigger, paid for out of this year’s windfall, and of course there could be a bigger dividend announcement.

I don’t think the price is low just because of a seller but because investors worry about PGMs being so high, especially Rh that is crazy and the chromium tax. However I have just bought another £50k in anticipation of tomorrow, and Tiger’s view that Rh will bottom here having driven off speculative froth, though as all news is known I expect tomorrow might be a damp squib….unless they announce a massive special dividend rather than Plotino the windfall into more chrome that may be taxed away.

Yes well worth buying gold miners now, such a shame OMI gave up mining in Uruguay so doesn’t move with gold price as dependent on what it will be later in the decade when mining starts

Quite a tumble, 15% since yesterday morn reducing our basket by 10% I reckon.

Yes Catsick, but as we never shot up with Rhodium, we really shouldn’t go down as still good value without any rhodium. And won’t we have put a lot of money in the bank. However if rhodium did fall right back we would return to being a chromium miner with some pgm on the side. In which case where if anywhere can one see the daily chromium price and what is our profit margin now electricity has gone up? Will Vulcan make up for that? And will the new tax come up on Thursday?

Ragnar I agree that the 17% of profit going to dividends, and 83% kept mostly reinvested, holds down price as unlike Amazon etc miners are notoriously worse at getting better returns by reinvesting that giving their investors dividends, something that has happily changed in many miners as they give back much more and stop expensive aggrandising expansions but of course that leads to lack of investment.There is a happy medium. Yes a special dividend would be a very good and welcome idea. On a PE of 10 Th would currently only be yielding 1.7%, a third of many other miners.

TBTT I think you may be a bit optimistic on rhodium fall stopping in another couple of thousand dollars as historically when it goes it goes, however as said as long as the other metals hold up we will still have 40% of the profit even if rhodium falls all the way back down, which will still be good. For me the bigger dangers are chrome tax and then the anticipation of shift to electric tho that is still a while away. We could become a chrome miner with PGM on the side again quite soon which is why chrome tax matters so much, so look forward to what they may say about it the day after tomorrow.

Mapp at least we are stuck, much better than the continuous fall if we can wait here for further news and just hope it is good

JM Rh price $25k earlier in Hong Kong so broken down, and near 20% below its top. JM report expects Rh supply to rise 20% this year! This is inevitable given Rh extraordinary 5 year 50 fold rise from $600 promoting increased recovery, as JM report points out However even if it fell back to $600 our basket would still be $2600 if rest stayed up, tho Rh would only make 4%. Of course that would depend on others staying up but although JM think platinum investment demand will tumble, I am not sure they are right on this with inflation coming, and the others should stay strong. Even with a basket at $1000 with Vulcan on stream we would still have very respectable profits and PE, but more dependent on Chromium so unless…….the chromium tax comes in. I wonder if they’ll mention it in th Thurs financial report which should be glowing as looking backwards.

I just don’t understand why Newmont would offer 60p or 4 times the price when they will getn80% anyway? This seems one f the the least likely companies to be taken over especially at a whopping premium imho

Ragnar you are right about the speed, Rhodium is now lowest since Feb apart from 2 days around this price in March so has broken through the lows of the last couple of months. Luckily our share price has been anticipating this for a while, with a share half the usual PE at the peak, as this time Rh was so high, so will hopefully it will not be too hurt and Thurs will balance it out. Seems sanguine today.

Rhodium is lowest for two months apart from v start of April when it was a tiny bit lower, let’s hope it stays in this range and doesn’t break out lower as now it is most of our profit. Looking forward to the financials on Thursday, tho we know pretty much what they say from last week’s Jo’burg statement

Thanks Raxfactor, I think the article is broadly right, rhodium is in another of its bubbles and will fall back down, hence our share price. However normally at the peak of the cycle we have a PE of around 6, this time it is around 3 so in my view we should be valued around double now, but then I expect the price to fall over the next few years. So will the price increase now before falling, well that is what I am hoping for, but it depends a bit on how quickly and how steeply rhodium falls. It has been rangebound for a while between about $26k and $30k, it keeps failing to make it through $30k and I consider it is becoming more likely the breakout will be on the downside that the up, and when it comes the price is ready to go like a spring. I am holding in expectation of higher before lower but my feeling is it is not just sellers who are holding us flat but buyers who are put off by knowing their rhodium history. Ps I know there are loads of arguments why rhodium should rise further there always are, I just hope this range holds long enough for us to get over £2 or this article and me are quite wrong