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Yes indeed, that was on advfn, how do we get Tiger by tail allowed back?

All the following numbers may be wrong as on my fag packet but I reckon that break even on PGM’s is around $1700 an ounce, about half where we are now, so currently making around $1400 an ounce at these fallen prices on 160koz less 40% tax etc or about £100m + maybe another £30m on the chrome, so if chrome remains the same and PGM profit halves would still be on pe of 4 or 5, so basically I reckon that as long as rhodium stays above $10k we are fine; of course there is no reason it will but if rhodium was to fall back to $5k, and presumable other PGM’s with it, ths would still break even on them, and if chrome price holds still only be on a PE of 10 from chrome alone. Rhodium much below $5k begins to become problematic; who knows when slide will stop.

Read Tiger’s post on ADVFN ths chat a couple of days ago. On quotes Barclays too quotes a very wide spread but as soon as you put in a dummy order it narrows, just as Lse above says bid 123 ask 128 but the real spread if you try to trade is much narrower,

Lucky,chicken and egg, low volume increases spread which reduces volume, an unvirtuous circle but many aim shares have 1.5% spread like us or greater;
and Bangrak quite agree that the stock market is becoming increasingly irrational, but as Keynes said “ The stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”

If you buy or sell the shares in the market currently 125.75 to buy 124 to sell, just under 1.5% which seems fin for a share like this, so IG have far bigger spread presumably as hard to lay off or illiquid

Pokerchips, Supercharger etc, I think the last divi cost the company $12million, given how hard all these workers have strived for the company and us their ultimate employers, how so many were killed and injured, and how they will leave families without a welfare system as we have, to fall back on, should we write to the company and suggest that the next dividend goes to the families of those killed and injured, it works out at $300k each? This would also show the new government that Hochschild is a decent company.

Thanks Lucky and Metalhead, this is an unusually respectful board, sad that Tiger has been banned for his as ever honest posts elsewhere. As you have probably worked out, the basket has just fallen below quarter 2 average of $3300. This is of course a fine amount to be making as shown on quarter 2 profits. However the question is now rhodium has broken through the key $20000 where it will end around 10000 from where it has come or even under 1000 where it was sitting 5 years ago. Or will it turn and rise. Also on PGMs interesting Lex article yesterday on why platinum is overvalued. However if the basket can hold above $2000 Ths is making juicy profits that justify a higher price than now, however markets worry about the trajectory as well as or more than the price and we just need this to turn imho. The good news of course is that this windfall has paid for a lot of capex without having to borrow so the balance sheet is great. Usually this is an unusually helpful informative and tolerant board. I miss Tiger Bt the Tail, from whom I found out about THS from a post on the Cey board, who is now posting on advfn saying “ my LSE account got suspended permanently thanks to some of the rampers on the LSE EUA board.” How sad and how great this board is usually not like that.

TopTiger. There was a positive start to my reply to Hindley who said the wide spread put him off buying Tharisa, explaining that is another poor reason to be pit off as it is only 1 ½% this morning , not high for an aim stock, just dealing used to cost more than that. The only thing therefore that might put you off is an irrational market worry about commodity prices rubbing off on Tharisa, how highly volatile prices affect sentiment whether rightly or wrongly, but that to me it seems good value, especially when thinking of this quarters results. I bought 27734 at 8.05 for 126.375 each, and 22660 at 8.16 for 124.243; sadly a bit quick off the mark as often thinner and bigger spread first thing. I don’t know why people get angry about explanations about market moves, political dangers and share histories.

Currently 124.5 to sell, 126.4 to buy which is hardly a huge spread for a thinly traded aim share, I wouldn’t let that put you off but your view of where commodities PGM’s, Chromium and South Africa electricity tax etc are going. If commodities fall out of favour, after their crazy rise in port covid dislocation, THS may suffer, it often hits a lowly PE at the top of the cycle and profits move around enormously, but ultimately it seems good value to me even if it may fall further.

Just bravely bought some more to could only get price for £30k. Do please post what Affan says

Yup Q3 should be amazing, now just very few weeks away, let’s hope market takes notice, and doesn’t just look forward. Basket now $3350, which still same as q2 and 40% above q1 but falling, question is where market sees Ths falling to, hence how it prices our shares.

Yes $2400 in Q1 and $3300 in Q2 plus Tharisa gets the money about 3 months after mining so profits should as you say still be rising, nay stonking. However I think the market may worry whether rhodium May go back where it was which is far lower

The results in a couple of weeks should be stunning, however the market knows that but is looking forward and the basket is now 20% down

Sadly my crystal ball is and it shows snow cold and down for now, but then…

I suppose the reason is our PGM basket has fallen around 20% so far, from $4300 to under $3500, and the trajectory is down. Our profits will still be large, but the share price is roughly the same in relation to them as a month or two ago. The biggest question is how low will they go? Will rhodium stop at $10k or $5k, as I have been predicting ((at which still making good normal profit) or go all the way back down or even turn back up? Where is Tiger?

Adrian you say DYOR. I have, and where do you get that we reach breakeven with gold $1600-1700 and are in trouble below $1700?
AISC is currently much higher than usual $1150-$1250, plus add on $200 and still $1350-1450
This should come down a fair bit within 18months
Jefferies, in Mr Tibbs post yesterday, suggests that at $1500 gold we deserve a share price of 175p
Finally the Royalty is no more than tax for many companies and is 52.5% on PROFIT so if we were to hit breakeven as you suggest it would be immaterial.
We will have a choppy time now as gold falls, as was expected and I have been criticised for expecting, but we are very well positioned to ride it out and the mid term looks very good unless gold spends long below $1500 and doesn't rise again. Unless the tumble is below $1300 for long we should ride it out and not be in trouble form how I read the figures; which ar you using Adrian? Mostly people here have an unfounded optimism but you seem to have an unfounded pessimism. I am sure our share price will overshoot on the downside but that is different to being in trouble.

Aisc is $1150-1250, plus another $200 an ounce this year and next for extra capex by my calcs so totals $1350-$1450. However this should fall in 2023, (see also the analysts Tibbs reported today who have a low price of 60p and high of 300p so likelier to double than halve) Therefore we currently make approx £40m at $1700 gold which is not bad for a bad year. However if gold bottoms sub $1500 that is obviously worse. The gold market seems to be concentrating very hard on nominal interest rates rather than real ones, real ones seem even likelier to continue to fall so hopefully this will come good before we go bust.

Supercharger wish I saw precious metals recovering but as posted months ago I see the rise of the PM of the last quarter as a dead cat bounce. I posted I thought Hoc would make 230 and would sell there, but sadly with worries over Peru election and poor ounces costs and reserves it didn’t. Now it could go down any amount as PM’s fall before eventually they turn and politics sorts out. Luckily we have a strong balance sheet to sit it out for the long haul, but clever Ernesto

The hedge is not $50 but $27.10 for this year and $26.86 for next,which shows which way Hoc thinks silver will go.. The metals market is not expected to go higher in the near term, I and many commentators would say it is likelier to go lower, as we are seeing, with competition from stock market and crypto just too much.

Thanks, luckily Ths say in it that they are low user of power, with a maximum energy requirement of 25 MW, it is "unaffected by load shedding" but that it has standby generation to withstand the effects of stage 4 load shedding