Member Info for Sotolo

Yes I think it will rise if Fujimoro wins although she too has said she will increase tax on miners, though not as much as Castillo. I don’t think it is a guff about these elections as they are the first in which the frontrunner proposed to nationalise mines, I am pretty sure the near halving of Hoc’s price isn’t just to do with a few less ounces and a bit higher costs, and silver is actually up, although they contribute, but if the election guff didn’t play a part what do you think caused our share drop

I think Castillo will win not least because the covid death rate had been cooked and today Peru is revised to worst death rate in the world. And he will probably be better for Peru than Fujimoro , if worse for us. HOWEVER although it looks really scary remember that our similar sized and more valuable peer Centamin pays 52.5% to the government, if we end up around 60% would still leave us over half our profits as San Jose is in Argentina, but whoever wins taxes will rise for us as they need money for Covid. But hopefully the worst is nearly in our share price and after a tumble a week today market should realise we are still there and concentrate on ounce mined, reserves and costs over which our management should have some control of only they could do better imho

Thanks Mr T, quite so.

Yes Lodan, last year was 12c this year divi will probably be 9c, a bit over 6p, paid for partly our of reserves as profit is not expected to cover it even reduced this year. If Cey share price was still at the peak we would be yielding 3%, about 2% paid out of profit I think, hence our share price fall. However if everything stays on course 2023 should be much better, tho it is possible capex will remain very high given the need for new resources after the recently announced big drop, plus paying to develop W Africa and new concessions, so my guess is either divis of 6 or 7% are a thing of the past, or the share price stays low as that is all people are prepared to pay for them. Imho

Agricole I quite agree, I think there may be a quick further hit the week after next, following the election, but it won’t be as damaging to profits as the market expects; overal although Hoc is so unloved at these prices it seems pretty good value but as we all know it is emotionally and financially hard holding on through, good luck all

Lucky, you will be missed so do still look in. I think fundamentals have to actually out in the mid term which is why I buy and hold, something those on many boards don’t understand as I explain why current news is hitting the shares, but I am no good at timing them (nor is the average investor who loses on trading too much)

Aha playingtheoods, maybe I bought the shares you sold yesterday morn, I payed 114.6

Pipe dreamer you asked for tips on working out what Cey is worth
I they to work out the profit for this year, next year and 2023 at this gold price, multiply by say 12 to get a reasonable price now and in next couple of years
then work it out for gold at 1600
and gold at 2200
I make this year profit at current price around £60k profit meaning our share price is too high
But £120k in 2023 which makes our shares cheap and too low
Conclusion, Cey is still a bit above what it should be now but way below what it should be in 2023 at current gold price, which helps explain current sellers who just don't believe we will double in 2023 given Centamin's history of setbacks.. I though our price was beginning to look forward to 2023 so picking up Of course if gold price rises or falls that changes things, and makes it better or worse. So I hold even if the price is a bit high, for higher gold and higher 2023 profits all imho

Ps meant ‘me too’ to when I sell a share it rises, (then tempts me back and falls, aren’t they mean) not that I am selling my THS, as said added £75k in this week’s bargain sale

me too, and vice versa, will miss you, what are you going into?

Rhodium is up by nearly 15%, great figures yesterday, yet our share price that we hoped would break out on these results remains resolutely stuck in its trading range and lower than a week ago? Will we ever move or do we now have to wait 6 months for the finals that should be stonking and a PE below 3????

Tiber, talk about the Palladium spike, KITCO has rhodium up a mad 36% this afternoon, though their price this morning was absurdly low. On another note we thought these results would inspire a breakout, sadly not and still range bound. Wonder what will bounce us out of it….

I think you’ll find this years PE ends up over 20, not 13.7 which isn’t including costs this year of around $1400 inc extra $200 oz capex and around 415k oz. Costs come down a bit next year tho still extra capex, only in 2023 do we return to a more normal PE. I think Liberium is looking at this year that will be horrid rather than forward which I thought our share price was beginning to, until Liberium, if this is how the market react to this I should think it will hate the year end figures unless we are saved by a gold rise. Of course another worry is W Africa capex hitting profit and PE further so we don’t get 2023 rise

subdec, on many of these boards including this there are contributors who only like positive views, and are very aggressive to negative views however well founded, just ignore them and carry on posting both sides, it is so helpful to have opinions on why the share should rise and others on why it should fall, for the market is a tussle between the two. We holders are betting that 2023 will indeed see a return to old Sukari output and costs, and that gold will stay level or rise. If liberium doesn’t believe that, well that is a view. I think Horgan will probably pull it off and gold should rise but nearly as likely the opposite will happen.

Mr Tibbles, you are absolutely right, and I fully expect PGM’s especially Rhodium that is now maybe half profits, to fall, however the point is this is making a third of its market cap in profit, so even if rhodium fell to nothing THs would still be making 15% or around 5 times Cey currently, so I think it is stonking value, and excuse any maths mistakes

anyone have the 10am conference call dial in as can't find it on their website silly me

Tiger, I read $275 capex +15% contingency and then $265 +15% and thought as different figures for the two mines. It would be great to get rid of Battie even better imho both to someone already mining there

Ps Prof love you calling the company Theresa, I shall ever think of it as that and we can now happily write Dear Theresa to the company on this board. My chopping and changing is usually idiotic. This time I didn’t want to receive the Cey dividend as I pay 37% divi tax, but my spouse is a non earner; however Barclays no longer transfers between spouses. So I sold the Cey in my investment account just before it went ex div and bought itv, then when Ths fell so attractive I sold those to reinvest ¾ of it in THS at around 136, and used the other ¼ to buy back Cey at 114 this am. So just luck this time. Where will Ths end the day? And where Cey? What moving times!

I think it is a bit unfair as most of us haven’t counted in W Africa when doing the sums, and the sums in Egypt look good from 2023
However maybe it is worrying if the company want to put our profits into holes in the ground rather than our pockets with huge dividends, and my worry about this W Africa news is not that it is weak but capex is $550m plus 15% contingency which probably means nearer a billion. Then it will be worse if we get more Egyptian concessions as more capex. What has been so good and kept the price up is the massive dividend, but now we may be paying out on other schemes for years till we get money back. Hopefully at least some of the exploration in Egypt will be adjacent to Sukari, but all drilling is prospective. Could help explain the fall? Just bravely bought some back but I am forever catching falling knives
And Mr Tibbs I meant to reply to you yesterday that you want to worry if I am optimistic. All best to all

Have a look at the Tharisa board, the company posted results on it before the RNS today and have already replied to posts, it is an exemplary LSE board, full of extraordinarily knowledgable and intelligent posters (like some here), but without any animosity to those who see reasons for the share falling or village pub banter, so well worth the management reading. There are some lovely friends from here on it, like Prof, and Tiger who recommended this great share. Maybe Cey could do the same, though interestingly the THS share price doesn’t seem to benefit just us. However I sold more Cey for THS this week, as THS seems so very undervalued making this year I reckon 3 times Cey but valued at half because of the extraordinary if temporary rhodium price, I still hold more Cey (600k) than Ths