Member Info for Sotolo

Super read my previous posts as to why Hoc should do this, I know some of you vehemently disagree, but it is falling nevertheless in expectation of future lower profits, sorry, as you know I continue to hold as sometime gold (and silver less importantly now to Hoc) will hopefully rise enough to make up for lower profit from expected increased tax etc that means Hoc has a lower rating than its peers, imho

Yes money in gold and silver definitely better than the bank, however Hoc is a different matter, if the next president is able to raise mining tax by 133% then it would take quite a rise in gold and silver just to keep Hoc worth the price now. However raising the tax so far may be hard to do given Congress and it may partly be rhetoric, as was the nationalisation threat now withdrawn. I expect that he will, justifiably, want to maximise the tax Peru can charge but that means not frightening miners off. I think it is fair we pay some more tax, and the expectation of this amount has set our share price where it is. But it is still not the same as gold or silver so not necessarily better than money in the bank which is probably only eroding about 5% per annum if my guess of inflation is right,

Gosh you had 5%, did you have to make a declaration and was there an rns, and then you sold before Newmont bought in?

Hoc is in one of its underperforming moods and has been underperforming Fres for months, hopefully it will make up lost ground sometime soon but I don’t think just now?

of course depends on time frame and other miners you choose. However Hoc has fallen from 320 last August. Over the same period the HUI a collection of miners has fallen a little over 10%, of course sterling accounts for a bit of the difference but a 40% drop is still a lot and over the last month Hoc is also down while the Hui and most miners including Fres are up. So you could say we are both right depending on the period, but Hoc has definitely recently underperformed. We are on track to produce 32m ounces this year so I am not sure how 25.3 million added in a year replaces that but expect somehow it does. As we both knows there are many ways to interpret the figures and more of the market interprets them my way, but hopefully yours will turn out to be better than mine and we shall soon be back over £3. hope so and lets stop this silly arguing and just respect each others views x

As said I have over 600k, and do not want more, my first bought at 220p 16 years ago, I have sent proof to others on this board and am not bothered to do so further. Believe what conspiracy theories you want, however I will plod along posting my honest thoughts on a share I know very well, including how little it has correlated with the gold price over the decades, as it has been such an eventful company. Of course we may all have different views, just the point of this board, just a big shame your views of it rising have been wrong recently, please may it turn tomorrow and you be super right

Yes indeed Somnamna, that is why I love the talk about Centamin and what affects it on this board, far more useful and informed than most analysts. And why different views so welcome here as analysts move in a herd

Giosh I wish I was one of your dedicated dreamers and could sell my shorts rather than having over 600k and being a dedicated long term long. How do you short Omi as no options on it, not that I would ever want to as a dangerous game but ion case I ever did? Thanks

Spindler. Hoc are in a tricky situation. They don’t want to have to close Pallancata, as they did Arcata, as silver falls and costs rise and it becomes unprofitable. By hedging they can guarantee Pallancata won’t lose money the next two years. It is more important to guarantee profits of the mine even at the expense of losing the opportunity of rising silver. So however much silver rises it will look like a right decision imho, they are miners not gamblers, just a shame they have become such a high cost miner to need to do this. And wish they could have done the same with Arcata as it would be profitable again now, but takes time and money to reopen once closed

Webbs you thought last week that we might have hit a bottom, do you now see us going on back down to 5.5 which is a pretty serious 3 fold fall? I suppose that would only be if the drilling news was bad? I remain more hopeful and wouldn’t go on holding if I saw such a collapse. Shame the gold price has nothing to do with our share price and it is all on exploration, down again a little even this morning as other miners rise, though hopefully not for long. I just think clever Brad, having the foresight on the price to get all those millions in when it was nearly 50% higher, before the fall he maybe saw coming, and securing digging holes elsewhere for a while.

Thanks and thanks Shareminator for your views, let’s hope gold and silver continue to rise to lift our share and particularly push it above the 50,100 and 200 day averages of 203. 208 and 223. It would be lovely if at least some of all the various bad news that has steadily pushed down our share price turned good. As Rothschild said sell the rumour buy the fact, hopefully the election is already discounted and it won’t turn out as bad as expected for Hoc after. Also as Shareminator points out costs have been well controlled over the last years, I think at the expense of exploration for replacement ounces a few years ago, now with costs on the rise replacement ounces may be on the up too, and as Shareminator points out we could be surprised by costs being less than forward guidance. Feeling a little hopeful for once, but sadly gloom has turned out right with this one the last 6 months.

Shareminator I always want to investigate the reason the share price has fallen consistently over the last 6 and more months, more than many other miners, and it is not just the Peruvian election as started way before. I am talking about 2021 that affects us now, not 2020. have been very clear that after Covid hit and the 2020 outlook changed Hoc did very well to keep costs as down as they did but they look like they'll be higher this year, 2021, a contributor to our lower share price along with lower ounces imho. Yes around 2013 we had some high cost mines and replacement exploration that was heavily cut as gold prices tumble and cash needed conserving, and then we closed expensive Arcata, but now costs are as said rising according to management for this year. You call me a liar, for saying I talk to Hoc and the words they used about aisc "Brownfield exploration is in the AISC. Then you have $11m greenfield and $14m for BL and a further $7m for the ore sorting pilot plant". It is sad that you think people here have the time to make up emails with Hoc, and suggest they are cutting and pasting from preliminary results which did not say this which is why I asked the company, instead you should be pleased and encouraging if they share them, and it would be nice if you could point out kindly if they interpret them wrong and why. I also point out completely wrong figures when put out by hoc which are corrected. Please disagree with my thesis but please also be civil about it. I respect and appreciate your opinions, I just like to explain the reasons for a share's fall and try to come to a view on whether and for how long it will continue. Have a lovely Weeknd all and good to be back at 200p and looks exciting and we look quite good value for the first time in a while imho

Tiger, actually 4 years ago our share price reached just about 10p higher, I am looking forward to it taking that price out as then we have blue sky. Same with rhodium at $30k, but every time it has a peek over the parapat it puts its head back down. As said a week ago gold looking good for now, especially with such huge negative sentiment, and particularly cey again. I sold Tui to buy some more and some more here last week.

Yes although if silver does take off around a quarter of Hocs silver is hedged at price below today’s: “ On 8 February 2021, the Group signed agreements to hedge the sale of 4,000,000 ounces of silver at $27.10 per ounce for 2021 and a further 4,000,000 ounces of silver at US$26.86 per ounce for 2022. This is to protect cashflows from the Pallancata mine in the next two years with the existing resource base.” Silver output was 20m oz in 2019, but has been falling with Arcata closed and Pallancata mining less, hence Hoc having now become a gold miner with silver, and the covid closures, so it mined 12m oz silver, nearly half, in 2020. Now, with mines reopened from Covid, if still running a bit slower, we should be between the two figures this year, but don’t look likely to regain 2019 without some extraordinary exploration news. Of course the rising price of our unhedged silver will help profits.

Slp and Ths reminds me of the dance between Cey and Hoc, when one shoots up as the other treads water, then the other plays catch up. Hoc was behind Cey a year ago, then rose to nearly double, now only 60% ahead, and falling maybe back to parity as Cey does its rising which has just begun. Shares like these go up not like elevators but stairs. So as others have posted ths short term movements and comparisons are just noise. Ths has been on this stair for a while, I expect it to shoot up to the next and play catch up with Slp’s recent rise soon.

Shareminator, you asked me what forward aisc guidance was given for 2020 so I told you, I also said they did well to only go a bit over given covid, which of course implies covid closures affected it, but they did well. The 14.1 to 14.5 guidance was for this year so we do not yet know if they will be ahead or behind. On aisc capex this is what Hoc told me last time I asked “Then you have $11m greenfield and $14m for BL and a further $7m for the ore sorting pilot plant”. I do not think the exceptional covid costs you mention count as capex. I do think about what I write, I just write what I think, that may be different to what you think; please disagree but I am looking at the figures, do say if I get them wrong or you interpreted differently, but I am trying to explain where and why I see profits and why price has fallen. All the best and thanks!

Karl there is no reason you should be a ramper just because you believe Omi is undervalued and your view is appreciated by me as are all. Just Omi is not a miner but an explorer, so it’s price is dependent on what it finds, of course the economics become better if gold rises but the key is exploration news, so gold has risen from $1680 while Omi has continuously fallen. Without any good news this is drifting but should settle I reckon around where it was before Agnico joined the party, shares always seem to overshoot in both directions, I luckily sold quite a few the first time above 40 as it had obviously overshot, I bought them back and more in the 20’s and 30’s, too early, my greed. Seems about right here to me, hope market doesn’t think much lower….

Hi Shareminato, in answer to your question: Forward guidance for 2020 was “All-in sustaining costs expected to be $1,040-$1,080 per gold equivalent ounce ($12.1-12.5 per silver equivalent ounce)”. Ended up at $12.8 which is pretty good considering Covid. I mention non aisc capex as I have been discussing it with Hoc, as higher and helps in working out reduction in profit. I have never suggested all capex is non aisc, but non aisc capex is a significant item, for instance with Cey it has shot up to around $200 an ounce. Nice to see a bit of a rise in light of soaring metals, for on e beating worries, have a good weekend

Yes great to see gold rising, tho not too significant for Omi as really depends on exploration results and hasn’t correlated with,or been a play on, the gold price for years

Yes Ian B we do need gold to hold and close above $1800 but as said here last Fri, when for the first time ever, that I can remember, every wall st gold trader polled on the KITCO weekly survey said gold would fall this week, that was for me a very strong buy signal and this week should end up. Cey has also resisted falling lately unlike some other miners, it is looking stronger, the gap with Hoc for instance has halved, and we have hit the Cey mining nadir, so all in all I am as hopeful as I have been in the last lousy 6 months