Member Info for Sotolo

Sandstone None of the largest mines are Chinese? I would guess Edoardo is just what Castillo doesn’t like, a very rich Peruvian. The on.y reason we might not be in his sites is we are not very successful or profitable, so not that much to tax.
Paddyboy, then it could drift a long time, Castillo has won the presidency but what he tries and succeeds in getting through Congress will take months or years to find out.

The size of the majority makes no difference in the presidential election as with Brexit Trump or Biden, but the new president like them will have to work with Congress. However in recent congress election Fujimoro's popular force party which had been the largest lost 80% of its seats falling form 79 to 15 so will hardly be a force, now we have 10 parties I think, none with more than 11% of the seats. Moreover Castillo has said In public statements that he would close the Parliament if it does not accept his plans and that he would also deactivate the Constitutional Court because he claims that it defends grand corruption. No one has any ideas what way it will go. However at least we should hear some good news about Biolantanidos rare earths soon

I would…eat my hat at $2000 gold this week Bonker

Super I think Castillo has definitely won as has been pretty obvious for last 24 hours… for better or for worse Of course Fujimoro will do a Trump but her challenge won’t get her any further than him

OPEC worked when most of the oil was produced in one area the Middle East, by Arabs. Gold is produced all over the world by wildly different people and regimes so too hard to,enforce a cartel so won’t happen. On a happier note seems to me the rare earths are barely included int the share price, IF our management hasn’t bitten off more than it can chew, and can actually mine them, then they could make a lot of money tho of course the new regime in Chile will take a lot of it away.

Well I have been saying for a long time that Castillo would win, and that the price would jerk down when he did, but I think in fact most of the loss has already happened in expectation, and I do think Hoc is near fair value in the expectation of tax rising to 60% (my guess). After all it has fallen a further 10% on confirmation of what we already knew. If it turn out to be the 70% tax he promised, or even nationalisation he first promised, of course we would go lower, but my expectation is tho it will be bad maybe not quite as bad as all expect so our future depends on better exploration which is so badly needed, control of costs, and higher metal prices not lower. The challenge there is if metals rise then so I think tax will rise faster. I would actually be tempted to buy now or soon if I didn’t have so many, as I think the price is so low as many like you are frightened out. And I do think he will be better for the poor who have suffered so in Covid that the awful Fujimoro family.

I’m afraid the risk of finding lots of profitable to mine gold is just the same backed by 2 majors or not. It is chicken feed for them so they can afford to make lots of bets. It doesn’t matter to them whether this one or another comes off as they only need a few to win, of course for us it matter big time unless we too are invested in lots of explorations. It is not at all Brad’s fault not communicating more if there is nothing to communicate. Orosur remains a punt where you could equally lose it all or make a 5 fold increase, therefore to me worth holding as far more to gain than lose even if the chances of both are evens. But you have to be prepared to lose

I would say not hard work but impossible for a Peruvian left wing government to change what the USA allow in the gold market, so higher tax is the only way of them getting their just deserts especially from Copper miners making super profits. Rising metal prices always push up many countries taxes, let’s just hope pm’s soar. Now Castillo has won I wonder whether we get another lurch down to fair to take account of higher tax that may not be as bad as we think, or worse….

White Knight, you did ask, I think perhaps our share price has halved as profits will be more than halved this year mainly due to management ineptitude, however profits may be back near where they were in a couple of years especially if gold rises, so as long as it does we should go up, but current price is fair - reduced divi this year won’t even be covered, - Imho

Supercharger, sadly there is no insurance for a company paying more tax, corporation tax is going up here but no insurance company will pay that extra. My guess is tax will only double, but only on the ¾ of profit Hoc makes in Peru, so profits only fal around 40% max and that will take a while given Congress. The share has already lost a third because of expectation of the election so I can’t imagine more than another 10% so today’s fall and tomorrow’s should be enough. The only extra fly I can see is the tax rate is to be based on the metal price, so what happens if silver soars to 50%, tax soars too based on that price, but we are a third hedged at $27, so we are selling for $27 but paying tax on $50, guess they didn’t know of that possibility when they hedged?

Yes also opposite of America, but then the choice against the Trump like in Mexico was a Marxist not a democrat, the share price tumble suggests the Castillo win is now considered very likely as Fujimoros lead disappears as country votes are counted

Yes but that is with city votes counted first so she has to edge a bit more ahead to win, may take days to count all the up country ones where Castillo is ahead

I assume if Fujimori wins we’ll shoot up, but of Castillo wins as expected the question is how much is in the price, or will there be a knee jerk down, however ultimately as you suggest it depends on our future profits

I have only posted once on SLP answering why kitco might have a lower price than JM, and hardly negative “ Rhodium seems little traded so it is harder to work out the price, however it seems Kitco has a more exaggerated version than JM, which is down 6% over the last couple of days, knocking Tharisa but so far not this.” So maybe you are confusing me with someone else? As said hardly negative but an observation on why THS might be down today? I am sure there are many and other better reasons you can think of but I have consistently been Jekyll here saying that even if rhodium falls all the way back Ths would still be good value which is why I hold. The on,y cloud is that Ths doesn’t reach fir value and why. One of the great things about this board is that so many respect others views on why the shares have moved as they have, and which way next. However it is a totally fair cop that I have complete dislexia with rhodium often calling it ruthenium, sorry

Rhodium seems little traded so it is harder to work out the price, however it seems Kitco has a more exaggerated version than JM, which is down 6% over the last couple of days, knocking Tharisa but so far not this.

PS I guess Ths is slipping again with the rhodium price, and I think expectation of this has perhaps been holding us back?

Although we’ve had a chunk of our next half I think the company is rightly waiting to see how long this extraordinary rhodium price stays; it is down again 5% in the last couple of days, so was that just a bounce last week or will it settle here, if it knows what settle means?

Thank you BPat, very informative. I do find Hoc a little opaque with the figures, especially using god equivalent ounces and silver equivalent ounces, which are confusing enough without the ratio used being 50% out. I find it is unencouraging to hide behind such obfuscation, which has put some of my friends off investing here(as it turns out lucky for them); I wish the board had the guts to come clean with clear and easy to understand figures, as Horgan has done in Centamin even if it has meant worse numbers. Of course however he is new management so far easier than ours that have been around years..

Quite agree, as posted last week I don't think it will be as damaging to profits as the market expects; there may be a quick hit to the share price if Castillo wins but it will recover when the market realises this, Castillo has stepped back from his nationalisation rhetoric, and whatever he does will be tempered by congress; however whoever wins rising metal prices make miners too tempting to tax more as is happening all over S America, just won't be as bad as markets think imho. I am more concerned about getting some decent news form the company about ounces rising again, costs controlled after covid, and even Arcata reopening - if they can hedge at this price wouldn't it be profitable and certainly with silver in the 30's?

I should be so lucky to be employed by them but intriguing theory that hedge funds have caused the drop by shorting Hoc? Do you know where I can see how many % are lent out to shorters, and how this has been rising, I guess must be quite large to have caused our fall, I’m surprised we are big enough for them to short but look forward to checking it out