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breaktwister, Castillo could be a good thing, increasing tax on miners a bit to help the poor and needy, especially after Covid as we have, without frightening them out which could be good for Peru, and it’s stability, especially if it is a supertax when copper is above $10000. His rival was a really corrupt extreme right winger. So I would say we just have to wait and see whether this is good for Peru and how much it costs us in extra tax, I would have thought the share price had now taken account of that so as said before all depends on if/whether he can change the constitution and how.

Mr Bond, I think a number of people on these boards are very critical of those who post reasons a share will go down, so you don’t get a very fair view here. I have been posting both about the Castillo threat and relatively short mine lives for months. However at the risk of getting my head bitten off (again), I agree that Hoc can move very fast on the silver price (tho actually it is more a gold miner now and a third of the silver is hedged) but this is just as likely to be down as up, which would really hit our share. On the other hand rising silver, even more important a more benign Castillo and most important finding more reserves could see us a fair bit higher

Finders quite agree on the tax front. The worry is the constitution and whether Peru becomes a Venezuela or a Cuba. That is why the price keep tumbling even though it probably won’t as who wants the risk

I think the Castillo proposed change in the constitution is more important than the mining tax, as that will strengthen the power of the president against congress, to do as he wishes. I don’t think Mr Hoc thinks he can do anything in this situation except wait and see as do we.

I quite agree, but when as it continues to weaken. The Peru mining index is down about 10% and 13% from its all time high, Hoc is down more, will it find a bottom soon? I just listened to an impressive presentation from Bustamente from last month. In it he says the market undervalues Hoc, which is better on most metrics, because of its shorter mine lives, something I frequently post n but get knocked back, but this years Inmaculada exploration is going very well. His big worry was the upcoming election which we have now had, in case Castillo won. I think we may get a filip with the first half results in July along with the financial case for Biolantanidos, but how far down first?

Mama mentally, love the name and thanks for the post. However I differ on one thing, I hope very much Brad George doesn’t squander the cash on buying other prospects which is like throwing the dice and far too dangerous for a little company like ours. It was raised to have enough to cover running the company through this Anza exploration faze. If it is more than needed return it to us, but please do t squander it.

This board has gone totally dead at one of the most worrying times for the company, no one but me has posted since a single post from redknight last Fri. Has everyone sold? If anyone is left here do they think Hoc has bottomed or will continue to drift down till Castillo’s plans for mining and the constitution become clearer, which could take a while? Then the share could go either way?

Sharetrader we are not derisked and it is not a pr problem. It is simply that it is a gamble as to how profitable what is in the ground might be (or not) also for Newmont and Agnico. Until we know fair value is impossible to price so dependent on how many people want to gamble on it at the risk of making a lot of losing it all. I do, but fewer and fewer others. I posted a while back that I expected this to come back to the price after Newmont bought in and it is nearly there. Also remember we have about 3p per share in cash from the fundraising. Hopefully it will stop still in double figures, pending news good or bad, which is totally outside Brad’s control.

Napthman, yes indeed results of drilling can move the shares quickly, as we saw last time since when they have halved, results are a two edged sword depending on whether good or bad, so it is not results we want but good ones, fingers crossed

Cowichan, thanks for your informed and intelligent posts about Centamin and its prospects, they like any others relating to how Centamin and gold might move, and what might move them, are always appreciated

How can the board tell us positive news when there isnt any just now? And they seem wise to have held odd investing as the shares fall on lack of news. Finally if they know of upcoming news that could change the price they are not allowed to buy shares anyway. And very hard to buy many in such an illiquid share. However overall agree that the directors mini holding are not a resounding vote of confidence..

So the price over the last couple of months hasn’t been fidelity selling, as suggested; I think it is more investors worried about future metal prices, and so our share price, and selling than buying, rightly or wrongly, but now down near 15%

Yes redknight, as said a win is a win, but Hoc seems to have found a floor; it may be temporary and lurch off downwards but seems quite good value now, especially with Biolanatidos seemingly not included and good news on that coming soon

I was just reporting a pertinent bit of news I had read which might help explain the pullback. Please criticise other here who actually sell, if you must, rather than the bearer of true news that others read and might affect the price. I continually say, including in that post, that Tharisa remains good value, even if PGM’s fall further, and I haven’t the least idea which way they will go, rhodium has risen a bit overnight but could be a dead cat bounce or a turn from the bottom of a trading range as it girds for a new assault on $30k. I continue to hold quite a lot,hoping the stonking profit this half, whatever PGMs do will push share price up later.
And others please do not stop posting the case for PGM’s chrome etc rising and falling, and all views and info about our company, this is a fabulous board that usually allows a healthy and courteous debate between the positive and negative which is essential for intelligent investment.

According to Statistics South Africa mining production increased by 116.5% year-on-year in April , the largest contributors being platinum group metals (276.1% increase). Could increased PGMs production (although related to an extraordinary low covid shut base, have something to do with weakening PGMs as well as restricted vehicle production, tho all the reports seem to think the PGMs future is quite good?

Quite so Barnaberible, the only good thing is we didn’t rise as fast as the PGM rise would warrant, so while that has fallen 10%, we are down less. We remain immensely profitable but now a question of how far down PGMs go

I didn’t say at all that I didn’t like the Brexit result or did, just would have made no difference if the majority had been 888,000 or 88,000 as it currently is for Castillo, or any other number, a majority is simply a majority in a first past the post election. Castillo has won. Fujimoro can whine like Trump of remainders but will make no difference. The idea of another vote as some here suggest is preposterous just because the majority is small. Look at the US election when Bush beat Gore, the tiny result was the result of course. Look at Kensington with a majority of 20 in 2010. Sadly our drift down has restarted and will continue till the result is accepted, ie once all sellers have come in finally accepting his win, including those who don’t understand the electoral process here. For me the sooner the better. Then it is possible that it will be like the last far left Peruvian president when market fell, then rose 20% when realised not so bad. I think the key drivers now will be in order:
A. Gold and silver price
B. Finding more resources
C. Increasing production back to where it was
D. Reducing costs back where they were
E. Sorting delayed trials in Biolantides - news was promised in first quarter, I am hoping it will come soon and be good
F. Mining tax increase applies mostly to excess profits from super prices (ie copper) which may not heavily affect us, the company don’t have a view on this yet. However Centamin with roughly similar quantitities are valued higher than us despite paying 52.5% on profit,

Super it leaves us with Castillo as president, like Brexit doesn’t matter how tiny the majority is,

My view, as written for months, is that rhodium is extremely volatile and way overshoots as it just has to $30k, the question is how far it will come back $10k $5k or all the way. Of course the chip shortage and reduced car manufacture affects it adversely, as does the Covid production reductions now improving supply, but I think the important thing is that even with a $1000 basket we are still a decently profitable company so it is a bit unfair that the share price falls when it hasn’t risen much in the last few but that’s markets. Plus there should be a bit in the price for a rhodium recovery to new heights though I certainly don’t expect it. You did ask, I am sure others have different views and are perhaps more bullish.

Are you are out of date 96% now counted and Castillo lead continues to rise now 50.3% to 49.7%, and going up as the final rural votes come in. He has won as he had two days ago, but as long as som people like you still don’t believe it the price will continue to fall as some will be waiting to sell till it is confirmed.
Surprisingly the sol has only fallen 1.5% in a week