Member Info for Smellyben

Buying this share depends on your opinion of the board - if you believe guidance it is significantly undervalued. If you believe the whole structure and delivery of education for Pearson is in danger whichever is absolutely arguable then it is a sell. I just have a feeling that the board surely they would have guided down if they weren't pretty confident of hitting the numbers and will look very very foolish if they miss at least the 580n target

10% overdone if full year guidance reiterated ?

now 33% up in a month !!! in the same period copper up 5%, gold & silver down about 3-5% Sterling down around 7% no other news that wasn't expected so I get there should be a move up but it should have been 10-15% not 33% - staying short , it's gotta break sometime !!

Hasn't worked so far - further short at 1040

I'm short at 990 - rise of 25% on a month with no real news seems overdone - we'll see !!

Ebitda is forecasted at 320- 350m - last year had the exceptional hacking costs and this number has been reiterated. Ebitda is the single most important number to assess ongoing profitability of a company stripping out accounting shenanigans -as an accountant I know !! why do you think it is the most often quoted metric - add in 15p divi every year at at these levels this is simply a no brainier

You can't put anything past the market because it can be so irrational in the short term but that would place a 1.5b valuation on a business generating 320-350m profit per year , with a divi yield around 8 or 9% - I will happily continue buying in at these levels as value always shows in the end

First time post on this share, just bought in because the fundamentals look very good, profit and cash generation strong and a very attractive play as the market continues to consolidate. Low and steady churn and if the data issue didn't cause people to jump ship then probably OK and management plans to increase margin by 25% by streamlining processes bodes well for a medium term investor Will be 240+ by Xmas and a takeover would have to pay well over 300 to secure

Can't believe the huge rise over the last week but am very happy. Been under the water for a long time but cashed out this am for a decent return and my nerves can't take it anymore !! I imagine there will be a pull back over the next week or two back to 800. Longer term hilary in the White House is probably a very good thing re common core so there my well be upside in 2 to 3 years to 12 quid if all goes well but too risky to guarantee so happy to be out for now - will look back in if it falls back to 750.

So a completely disastrous couple of weeks and update out tomorrow. They said that eps would be circa 70p and next year ie this year around 65p My guess is that this will be met and dividend will be maintained or even slightly increased - not 7% but maybe 1 or 2 % / My opinion is that this share is worth at least 9 pounds on current earnings/ market conditions and potentially 50% more IF they can deliver The transition to digital - we shall see and I could be proved entirely wrong in a few hours ( at least re earnings/ divi) but thought I'd put it out there !!

Pretty horrible few days ( and indeed couple of months !). Wish I had some more money cos its Got to be worth it at these levels. Ft and economist while trophy assets didn't actually produce much money - the lease on the ft building will probably generate more than the ft !! PRH investment is worth circa 2 billion dollars Us is at full employment (bad for earnings perhaps but how long can that last - we have had about 5 or 6 years of constant adding so will surely come to an end soon with interest rate rises. ) We will see at end of Jan I suppose but I still expect this to be close to 10 quid in the near future.

Got close to breakeven and then fell back ! Darn. There have been a couple of analysts suggesting that Pearson will need to cut the dividend which is weighing on the shares. While this of course cant be discounted in the longer term if the education business in the US and beyond doesn't pick up in 2017 as planned I think there is absolutely no chance of that happening within the next 18 months at a minimum (if at all). Mr Fallon said the divi was a priority and its not as if they don't have tonnes of cash following the sale of the FT etc. The strong dollar will add a bit to earnings in the last quarter and from glancing at the book best seller charts in the US and UK PRH look to be having a great year (9 of top 10 non ficton books at Xmas!!) and they are cutting costs in the UK at least - see one of their distribution centres is being closed suggesting the synergies are working I guess the real movement will happen when full year results are out and there is more guidance for 2016

This is great thank you -

This is great thank you.

Sitting on about a 20k loss so I hope so !! Put in the last dredges of the pension at 777 - Again I don't understand the market - one of the markets worries was apparently that the divi might be cut as the yield is cuurrenly so high - fallon reiterating it is a priority to maintain should be reassuring surely - saying it can't grow 7% pa indefinitely is surely just inevitable. Sentiment appears to be really against Pearson at the minute - must be the number 1 yielding stock in the ftse without the debt issues that the other high yielders ie the miners have Anyway now averaging about 857 so fingers crossed !

Well that would be lovely but 10% in two days is a bit ambitious ! I see a more gradual rise as more and more people realise they can get a 6 % yield plus capital gains - in fact the most bearish broker has a target of 800p but most are in the 10 to 11 pound range so I am pretty confident the rise will come in the next could months

It looks like the panic of the last couple of weeks has calmed down and so we can look more at the fundamentals. I declare my interest - I have invested over £250K in this over the last couple of weeks (basically nearly all my pension) - starting at £9.80 and buying all the way down to 8.58 so you might think this is ramping but I certainly hope not! The prices they got for the FT and Economist were outstanding - the earning on these (especially the FT) were low and so taking the money and paying down the debt to zero will be earning enhancing for 2016 and beyond In addition to this it seems inevitable that they will sell their stake in PRH at the right time and at a good price (they have no need to rush it and will wait until they think all the synergies have been achieved in the merger) Therefore they have a massively strong balance sheet, a number 1 position in their sector and decades of history with all the knowledge , contacts and relationships that implies that they can leverage. OK the digital transformation hasnt kicked in as quickly as they hoped but it is surely inevitable and as the number 1 educational company in the world they are massively well placed to take advantage of it. While the price per textbook/course or whatever in a digital world may be lower per copy (good for budget holders) the marginal cost and of producing and delivering is effectively zero so it is more than feasible it is a win win for customers and is relatively easy to sell into previously unexploited markets. In addition the stronger dollar with likely Fed rate rises will mean their earning in Sterling are enhanced with the majority of sales being in the US. All this and a PE ratio of just 12 !! I expect the market to be pricing this at £10 by end of year and potentially £16-18 in three or four years time - just in time for me to retire !!!