Member Info for Smellyben

Simply can't believe the market is up today generally - there is an idiot in the White House , totally unpredictable dishonest and incompetent - I can only see all stock markets collapse in the next 12-18 months when his incoherent and incompatible promises hit the real world I suspect he himself knows this and I wouldn't be shocked if he engineers some kind of resignation due to ill health or something but then again got this election totally wrong. Anyway still short on this

I'm short now as well at 11.80 - 75 per point to begin

Didn't do it in the end - couldn't bring myself for even a small part of me to hope for a trump win !!! Hope I am not proved wrong

Completely separately I am mulling a short on the Dow at 18400 - I know Clinton wins and this goes to 18700 or so but I believe that would be short term and pretty soon it would fall back when people realise there is a socialist in the Oval Office and maybe a democratic senate and Supreme Court with interest rises on the horizon. On the other hand and I have no desire for this to happen but if trump did sneak in somehow this drops 2000 points overnight Thoughts ?

Well I am currently up 5 figures and am happy for this to rise while I am out !! As I have said before I look at fundamentals - agree of course that trends charts etc can be important short term but guys stocks ALWAYS revert back to fundamentals - Earnins ,P/E ratios etc. And this stock is about to collapse - I have noted the rise in copper prices BUT with the Chinese real estate market about to collapse that I beli e will be short term Assuming Clinton does win tonight this will rise 30- 50 points tomorrow am - whtever I will short around 10am

Waiting for weds - expect a Clinton win will push up dollar and stock market and this could go to 11.50 again - will short from there

Nice couple of days for me - now up 10k ! Closed out a couple of shorts as it will probably bounce a little but will go back in over 11 quud

Huh ? Don't understand the whole appreciating depreciating asset thing - The price of stuff they dig out of the ground has collapsed compared to 2011 while their debt is far higher.and they are not paying a dividend because of this. Manufacturing in china is slowing significantly aal are selling as many assets as possible to get back to financial health so that one day it can resume a divi that has been suspended - I am happy in my positioning- like anything I am not infallible and there I always room for doubt but the share price is defying gravity at the moment - perhaps realism will kick in when they announce results in 3 months time - I am hoping before then for a nice Xmas. !

Cheers buddy - I am long in a few specific stocks with potential I think to help hedge against general market uplifts I guess my view is that fundamentals always reassert themselves in the end - have been right a few times in the past in similar circumstances - I may be early and the irrationality could run further who knows but I am confident I am right and when the fall comes it will be Huge - just about to add 50 short if this hits 1140 - course I'm sitting on a loss - more like 12k now so what do I know !!

Clearly I hope you are wrong !! Well just 6 weeks ago it was 783 - what has happened to make this fly 45% in that time ??? No results or anything just a bit of a weakening of sterling from around 1.29 to 1.22 - Well overdone price rise and while I don't expect it next week - any bad news out of China like 2017 growth targets will knock the bejesus out of this in my opinion

My view is that the driver of commodity prices , China , is slowing significantly - official numbers for last 3 quarters say 6.7% but most independent analysts say it's half that - massive real estate bubble even they recognise Add to that massive oversupply of core commodities after the players invested massively 4 or 5 years ago building up debt but not anticipating the slowdown. Only a matter of time before this falls back to 500-700 area - I am adding 50 pounds per point shorts every 50p move in that share price and am up to 200 per point - down 10k so far but have 500k ammo (just sold a house) Only thing holding this up is sterling weakness but that fails to recognise all the debt is in dollars too and in any case I believe sterling will rise in time to 1.30+

Rise early today was scary - thank god for the pull back! 7% intraday move in a ftse company with no news is weird no?

Can only hope so !! These shares have went up 10% in a week while other miners have risen nothing like that - the pound is roughly where it was a week ago and copper is down. Agree must be the union agreement but as you say they were after 50% - if they only got say 20% it is still not an insignificant negative !

Hope it works out for you - the rise today was a bit of a kick in the teeth for me - any idea what caused it ?

Ffs

I'm calling top - at least until next weeks stats - 2 or 3 days of falls God I hope so anyway - 5 straight days of rises is starting to pee me off !!!

Why do 24 out of 25 brokers , the good people of investors chronicle and many commentators have significantly lower price targets than the current share price - and the one exception says 11.50 not too far above current levels ? What do you guys know they don't ?

seems to want to go ever higher !! every time there is a dip if roars ahead again on no news apparently still short - added more just before close (stop at 1200) - surely the insanity will end soon :) !!

I totally agree digital education is a big challenge and there may be structural issues but it is difficult to know for certain with the us at full employment - the proof one way or another will be within the next. 2- 3 years I guess as unemployment ticks up ( it can't go lower!) and if the democrats take the White House and congress and its spend spend spend !! For now I am giving them the benefit of the doubt - PRH is probably worth 1.5 to 2 b dollars and they will probably look to offload in the next couple of years

At this price cant be much more downside and IF the board deliver year end results perhaps a bit more faith in their pronouncements and ability to deliver Could also be an upside if the democrats sweep congress and the white house as they will spend a lot on education