RE: Kefi Math: Are the market implied probabilities rational?8 May 2023 15:19
Hi equanimity
The economics of Kefi are as you say compelling and by traditional measures vastly undervalued but what you do not appreciate is that the discount to fair value is Mr Harry Adams. HAA has for years given - how can one say - optimistic , exaggerated, porkies, and so the market simply does not believe what he says. Now if this time what is is saying is true and funding is actually signed commitments from banks and equity partners then investors are in for a big rerate and a 3-4 bagger. Some of the pitfalls have to be fair outside of his control but 6 months ago he said it would be done by Christmas and it still isn’t so we have the Harry discount- you pays your money you take your chances