Member Info for slarti_bartfast

Currently need c43p to get back in ftse250. this time last year c54p.
higher interest rates will continue to force the efficient allocation of capital (incremental contract wins etc) vs the general market non performing loans culture. Great long term hold. Trade it, hold it, doesnt realy matter as the value is increasing relative to the rest of the market.
Only concern is someone will bid less than 165p to capture that value. *8 would fix my portfolio...

Great stuff
“As well as reflecting our ability to win new scopes of work, this contract adds to the healthy book of new revenue we have now secured for 2022.”

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CPI/capita-wins-customer-support-contract-with-scottishpower-y2v59iiiiocugjy.html

https://www.capita.com/news/work-continues-our-progress-and-continued-challenges-two-years-after-murder-george-floyd

https://www.capita.com/news/three-capita-leaders-named-global-2022-empower-ethnic-minority-role-model-lists

5 weeks away from H1 reporting period close. Worth reposting or at least reminding ourselves that if Lewis's outlook is anyway accurate, we should see some good news shortly. Only 2months ago his outlook for this year highlighted that 2rds of contracts have inflation clauses included which allows CPI to pass on costs incurred due to higher inflation, so thats good news each time a contract is won, renewed or billed.

He said £9.4Bn unweighted pipeline in 2022
BBC TV licensing -WON
Utilities sector - H1
Technology business - H1
NHS England - H1
Financial services - H1
Financial services - H2
DWP - H2
NHS Scotland - H2

66% of client contracts include inflation linked escalators
22% are fixed price with indexation assumptions built into contracts
12% of revenues are transactional so naturally hedged by updated pricing

H1 report in August might be when he wants to release material news relating to his performance and then FY outturn (according to Morgan) includes material debt reduction [£215m] and when portfolio division is sold in 2023, CPI is debt free. There is even the prospect of a dividend in 2023 if the BoD recommend (which I am sure they will if CPI hit all the milestones).

will land shortly if Lewis's outlook is anyway accurate. Only 2months ago his outlook for this year highlighted that 2rds of contracts have inflation clauses included which allows CPI to pass on costs incurred due to higher inflation, so thats good news each time a contract is won, renewed or billed.

He said £9.4Bn unweighted pipeline in 2022
BBC TV licensing -WON
Utilities sector - H1
Technology business - H1
NHS England - H1
Financial services - H1
Financial services - H2
DWP - H2
NHS Scotland - H2

66% of client contracts include inflation linked escalators
22% are fixed price with indexation assumptions built into contracts
12% of revenues are transactional so naturally hedged by updated pricing

H1 report in August might be when he wants to release material news relating to his performance and then FY outturn (according to Morgan) includes material debt reduction [£215m] and when portfolio division is sold in 2023, CPI is debt free. There is even the prospect of a dividend in 2023 if the BoD recommend (which I am sure they will if CPI hit all the milestones).

'option expiry at 22.52p as today is witching day?'
2*5m volume transaction midday yesterday. Think the other 5m was a swap associated with the option expiry.

hopefully Boris starts with civil servants working from home supporting the CMA. These guys can string a decision out through the courts for years and years and years and years. Jobs for the boys.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/627ce759e90e0721b01ea4ef/Decision_to_refer__NEC-Capita__.pdf

option expiry at 22.52p as today is witching day?

Thks Milkz, I am trying to learn to use TA and resort to drop down buttons on various sites.
I am tempted to day trade ...

I had a go at pitchfork analysis from pre transformation (6 years ago) to date (post transformation with confirmation of debt, pipeline and revenue growth still to be reported). This pointed to a SP over £2 in the next 12 months. If my average is 30p, then 600%+ gain by simply holding. On that basis I would only risk a small amount day trading because of fear of missing out a larger gain.

'The Slaughtering of the Lambs'
Thks NF for the link.

A journalist I know visited a farmer with a 3 legged pig. He asked the farmer why the pig had 3 legs. The farmer said the pig had rushed into the farmhouse while it was on fire and rescued him and he was eternally grateful to the pig. The journalist asked 'but why has it only got 3 legs'? The farmer said, 'well you cant eat a good pig like that all in one go, can you'?

says cpi is trading at 59.2% below fair value suggest they think c55.5p SP

'The share price went on a run from then until around Nov 15 peaking around £7.72'
yes please

'slarti_bartfast was invested in poly, and suddenly bought in within a week ago here when the share went up to now call it long term hold'
that doesnt make sense Aim?

'hence this is for me a hold for more than 12 months to couple of years'
My CPI stocks are locked away until 2023 maybe 2025/ longer. I am tempted to buy more to trade with the day traders and get my average down if quiet between now and August but for me that usually ends in tears. Volumes are up materially compared to last year same period when the SP was 42p. Must be funds exiting/ entering risk positions after the ftse250 exit and/or PI's/traders driving incremental volumes on the recovery play and/or macro volatility.

'Shareholders who wish to attend the Annual General Meeting electronically can do so by accessing the Annual General Meeting website: https://web.lumiagm.com/181-342-038. Full details of how to participate electronically in the Annual General Meeting are set out in Appendix 2. Shareholders who wish to physically attend the Annual General Meeting should refer to the instructions set out in Appendix 3'

resolution 15 'authority to allot shares or grant rights to subscribe for or convert any securities into shares up to an aggregate nominal value equal to £11,602,773. This represents approximately 33% of the total ordinary share capital in
issue (excluding treasury shares) as at 18 March 2022...The Directors have no present intention of exercising this authority. However, by granting this authority, the Directors will have the flexibility to take advantage of any appropriate opportunities that may arise.'

https://www.capita.com/sites/g/files/nginej291/files/2022-04/Capita-Investors-Notice_of_Meeting.pdf

CPI should weather any interest rate increase. 2021 net interest paid was £40.1m. If interest rates double over the next 12 months while CPI continues to reduce debt to zero, I cant see earnings being impacted, which is what the market is concerned about ie increased risk for bond holders whose capital value is dropping as interest rise and earnings (market generally) might not cover interest payments. No danger of that in the next 12moths here imo Most of the correction will be in the top 250 ftse companies as liquidity moves out from indexes etc. CPI has already corrected and then some and because of inflation etc, looks a good recovery bet rather than sitting in cash at 10% inflation at the end of this year.

Aim, yes. Some funds moving cpi out of aggressive into moderate....looking at this file again, state street sold/swapped/transferred exactly 13,479,156 to the Australian retirement trust. If you add up the net movement on the latest movement column, just over incremental 21m. I guess most of that PI's/ traders, hargreaves and interactive?

Thks NF, not sure if I read this right so happy to be educated..
main movement this week is US ie from state street (Qsuper) -13m to blackrock +8m (UK equity fund and small co fund) and various other small co funds which I assume explains some of the large multilateral day trades recorded on London SE.

'buy low, sell high, buy low, sell high,'
all relative really. sold at £3 and in and out all the way down to 20p. in the end, do you believe the company will exist in 5 years time, if not, walk away with your profit imo