That's good news and underpins the medium term strategy.
I do wonder if the can just got kicked down the road a little. A disposal is restructuring or is it transformation? Needs evidence that the transformation is deliverin 6-8% ebit margin in H1 or H2 published accounts and if a trend can be nailed on
Never the less. Net positive in terms of messaging CPI being around to service longer term, like the cabinet office/ royal mail requirements beyond 2026 imho
I dont have visibility of the last 5 times but werent they restructuring? with a £100m long term contract loss ball and chain dragging along behind. They raised £100m debt last year which will be serviced and that was the watershed imho.
As the new commercial model is 6 to 8% ebit margin, either the public sector insources believing it can create more value, or more likely, it continues to outsource to CPIs digital customer experience. That's how technology and industry work and the purpose of the digital Britain bill. Certainly none of CPI continuing employees will be trying to do things the old way. Cant ask more than that of the new team and culture.
Market will decide if it believes CPI digital strategy when AH delivers a cluster of quick wins to reinforce the strategy. Just cost management will lead to exit from the industry.
The old industry commercial model under bid in the belief scientific improvements would reduce cost and here we are with several very large contract renewals imminent and the principle of 6 to 8% ebit margin baked in.
AH also said he would return to revenue growth medium term. If the addressable market wants CPI digitalisation, That's [c.11.2m ebit margin per annum] for every 1% of incremental market share (8% ebit margin)
August should draw a line under the financial engineering on slide 51 that JG refers.
Slide 52 - a return to positive free cashflow in 2025. Will be redundancy costs in 2024 and much of the £50m weighted to H1 2024.
If no 'headwinds' I expect H2 will continue to reinforce the strategy story board and 2025 H1 to announce a 'modest' dividend, maybe H2 as AH is not in control of everything
I thought that too. He does it naturally, with other examples.
AH gets 2.5m shares vested next month, half year results in Aug with baked in confirmation on cost savings and a clear outlook for the rest.
2025 may be too late for people to get in to this low price, but I expect they can enjoy the ride from 20p to 40p or higher if there is a modest dividend and more wins (AH will have those landing like an air traffic controller) imho
Difference between CPI and the monsters of the ftse is Adolpho. Not just CPI leadership but also his relationships and speed of execution once decided.
I also like Enterprise Value (EV). The market capitalisation of CPI plus short-term and long-term debt and any cash or cash equivalents on the balance sheet.
They will eventually work it out and the next cycle kicks in. There is probably some great programmer in the sky who determines what the SP will be on the road to global connectivity. Its a utility at the moment and pays 11% dividend..!
Encouraging news. VOD UK/ 3 Merger8 Jun 2023 21:18
Just noticed news imminent, maybe tomorrow, maybe over the weekend. Hope it helps draw a line under the SP. The big pension funds must be bloated @10% dividend. But who is selling when E&, Malone and Niel are also buying large holdings?
Mole, re malone, the company said it would fund the deal through derivatives and would only require £225m through equity funding from the group. It ultimately intends to fund the purchase through sell-offs of “non-core” assets.
I think VOD UK /3 go ahead will be the tipping point for Malone as thats the regulatory starting gun for next stage (ie what are his non core assets) and that will roll across BEREC/ EU. Niel has 2.5% similar bet.
But E& appears to be a solid 14% maybe acquiring africa assets but also hedging investment in €/$ currencies
Everyone agrees the €154Bn total assets are undervalued. Net assets €57Bn but market value €24.2Bn...
Its tough watching it day after day. I guess can just switch off for the big rerate and not sell too early on the rise LoL
We definitely getting some or all our money back imo
I would like to say my win this week was just luck, but in fact, it was a calculated outcome where the SP eventually surpasses 185. Obviously its a secret formula that I cant just post on a public bulletin board. Also, if I said it will surpass £2 you would say I was ramping [and of course it is science, not ramping] so I take it one week at a time and say next Friday close will be 102.33p
meh*3, thats a good link/ article and the associated links at the bottom of the article too.
There is a good point made about 3 and VOD UK not getting appropriate returns on their investments under regulation. In the case of BT, I think OFCOM lets them have 10% and their SP jumped on that announcement.