Member Info for slarti_bartfast

*pleasant

tomorrow and I just spotted a transaction on my current account (wrong card) buying me a title to 5 square feet of real estate.
So now I am Lord [slarti-barfast]. I dont know if I should change my moniker for future posts? I wonder if AIM will call me Lord slarti and stop confusing me with sharehead?

My embossed certificate of title will join my certificate of ownership for 1 acre on the moon and my accumulating CPI stock.
GLA, even that peasant AIM

'Where does money go when it leaves the market'

Which market? ECB governing council yesterday: ...the Governing Council decided that it will apply flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to preserving the functioning of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, a precondition for the ECB to be able to deliver on its price stability mandate..'

monetary policy transmission mechanism is the operative phrase and interest rates tilting the tables imho

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2022/html/ecb.pr220615~2aa3900e0a.en.html

Dont forget, FY2020 net debt was £1,077m, FY2021 £879.8m and FY2022outlook to be 25% lower. FY2023 nil debt possible although I expect new debt finance for new opportunities when ii's have revalued at FY2022 year end Market will run the numbers and take opportunity where it can, but if Lewis is on track H1, it just reconfirms the turnaround imho.

H1 update I am expecting £1.5Bn (adjusted) revenue, something around £47m ebitda and +ve cashflow
That, for me, will be confirmation CPI is executing and delivering on outlook/ strategy/ guidance IMHO
It would also be an improvement H1 2022 on H1 2021 reporting of the continuing businesses although it will be down to IR to provide a reconciled comparison of post transformation to pre transormation

They said net debt to be slightly lower than £880m FY2021 (H1 last year £895m) and should look out for reconfirmation of further net debt reduction in November 2022 for FY reporting (£200m+ reduction)

'It's already priced in'
FED target interest rate up 0.75%, futures up.

topped up when it dipped below 24, happy with that

Aim, you will have to be patient and wait for the CEO to report H1. Lots of contract wins, incremental ones as well.
Never sell cpi imho

Aim page 21 if you havent read it.
https://www.capita.com/sites/g/files/nginej291/files/2022-03/FY21-Results-Slides.pdf
Technology business - H1?
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2022/W24/776733072

Lewis reported the H1 contract pipeline in his 2021 outlook.
In addition to the nhs Sharehead posted, NF posted another contract win earlier, which might be the tech one
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2022/W24/776733072

Guidance was transformation complete and H1 would show rot has stopped imho. Noone can say what the H1 report will be until Lewis says it. So far so good

'Would love to think it will be good news as the bounce could be huge'
Transformation phase is done and so the financial reporting will tell the 'post transformation' story. I like that Lewis surprised end of 2021 and he is incentivised to execute another milestone toward the strategy such that he keeps his job. Thats how I am thinking about. I am not underestimating the effort to turn this around, same effort required to move it forward another notch. Contract wins and revenue growth could be the H1 story and £200m debt pay down in Nov H2.
gla

'fare better'

While higher interest rates will impact sentiment and probably fixed income/ bonds, inflation is 8-10% this year so I expect cpi to fair better than many stocks. Rather be in than out ..

'Cpi have issued trading updates in June for the last 2 years.. 21st last year, 25th year before.'

Anyone know the next trading update? Must be next 2 weeks?

Aim, the disposal you are referring to is not pencilled in until 2023. I imagine they will be reorganising debt for next phase in 2023 depending on how the valuation work end 2022 plays out. Good if Lewis does make an early disposal in 2022 but thats not what was inferred in the IR update. That indicated 2023.
In Nov 2022 they pay down £215m so net debt will have reduced materially again, year on year.

Yep, Serco delivered the goodies and the COO gets to cash in. That's how it's supposed to work. Hope Mr Lewis does the same. In the meantime, a couple of large glasses of cabernet sauvignon to end a good week in CPI.
GLA

'I'd like to see is an analysis of the effect of inflation on cpi'
All co's report 'historic cost accounting' but with persistent high inflation they will start reporting 'current purchasing power accounting'. I imagine the top ftse 10 or 50 in the interest of good stakeholder management will start next FY end?

Thks NF
Some good buys/ base building. Local government pension scheme for one. Pi's not far behind!

Happy with the news delivery and confirmation of what 'Mr lewis' said in the FY 2021 outlook.

H1 Trading update mid July?

I guess (H1 2022) anything more than £1.5Bn revenue (adjusted), £47m ebitda and +ve cashflow is confirmation CPI is executing and delivering on outlook/ strategy/ guidance and H1 on H1 reporting improvement on the continuing businesses?

I expect net debt to be slightly lower than £880m FY2021 (H1 last year £895m) and reconfirmation further net debt reduction in November 2022 for FY reporting (£200m+ reduction)

gla

even if worst case 50p in 3 years, thats 30% return pa on capital from now. May see 50p this year if they keep reporting new contract wins. It will be clearer end of H2 with £215m debt paid down, revenue and profit growth and ii's at the table valuing and buying CPI. Then no debt in 2023 if portfolio division is sold..

T