RE: Tomorrow14 Nov 2022 21:11
'high inflation and a nasty bear market'
I am hoping VOD is relatively recession proof. In a (recession) previous cycle, subscribers could reduce their usage and reduce their bill (VODs service revenue). Since the advent of product/ data bundling, you can generally only choose to be a subscriber or not, so VOD revenues would be more resilient than previous cycles. As the markets are likely to consolidate this should leave consumers with no option except to choose a network based on price or not participate in mobile internet etc. Having just experienced no service whilst out of bundle and internationally roaming, I would say all consumers would generally choose to keep a subscription and cant live without their mobile or their tablet.
There is likely some cost pressure from energy etc, but VOD will increase tariffs for inflation in April. VOD also sold 50% of Vantage so moving to a model where they only pay for what they use rather than the whole lot.
Whiles the market changes, VOD is changing too and in many ways is more aligned with GDP of the country/ countries in its footprint because of WTO/ BEREC/ OFCOM etc but there is plenty of evidence Reed has a firm grip on any incremental commercial initiatives and capital requirements.
Maintaining the dividend whilst the economies cycle and build again is all I am really hoping for at the moment and not miss the rerate reflecting all the recent valuations we have seen.
Tomorrow, 2% service revenue growth and FCF guidance c€5.0Bn would keep the dividend, I think..