Member Info for slarti_bartfast

Hi Robleo, I have been in VOD since Racal..

I look at it in a societal and regulatory context which the market can influence but not move outside certain parameters set by global institutions. Honestly, 2016 is no time at all in the life cycle. Down to MDV or the next CEO to callibrate VOD with whatever the policy makers and CMAs decide. VOD will still be trading, investing, raising capital like other utilities...

Absolute 100% certainty imo, if hutch are briefing government, we will get consolidation across markets (industries and/or geographies).

If I am wrong, VOD uk get a share of 9m subscribers as 3 exit UK so win win in uk plc

Just hold tight and you will get 100% from here imho

Scaredy, different horses for different courses.

I am gobsmacked guttersnipe is calling for rotation after years calling VOD SP 'in the gutter'.
Even Robleo is drawn to his reasoned arguement for rotation ie can only go so low before the only way is up.

Stranger things have happened. Guttersnipe might actually be Malone trying to accumulate cheap shares. Only mikey seems to have any firm grip on this bb and the SP unfortunately it's his todger.

Mole seems to move from risk to risk like Don Quixote lost 'in the windmills of your mind" or perhaps too much acid in the 60s and 70s.

Thank goodness for Roofer and Fridays.

I will pick 91.98p for next week. Uk GDP is likely to average c1.7% per annum until 2030 according to the imf so maybe SP increases 0.1p per week until 2030 and then Malone, Niel et al exit

VOD/3 UK merger
'The government... announced an ambition to deliver stand-alone 5G to all populated areas of the country by 2030, driven by a "pro-investment framework", and confirmed its "openness to market consolidation".

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/hutchison-briefed-uk-government-as-vodafone-deal-set-for-regulatory-scrutiny/ar-AA19RkQI

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/uk-merger-control-in-2023

Blue pill working its magic this afternoon

*so no impairment (already recognised)

meh*3, €154Bn total assets is the lower of cost and net realisable value shown in the statutory accounts last year. The auditors audited it and signed off as a true and fair view. The recent valuations point to a disconnect between the SP and the offer/bid prices 3rd parties are making for the various parts of VOD. The market will like an executed deal like sell spain or merge UK etc, surely.
The India gov investment has made bankruptcy less likely and positioned for a billionnaire investor as well as capital required for 5G ( a bit like VOD/3 in aspiration). India is not included in the group accounts so impairment. If it went bust, there is probably €1Bn cost. If it comes good, there is a share in a huge investment to be included in the group accounts imo

'Idiots please just go away. '
Yes, why does the banter increase negative toward the end of a week and spams the bb?

'3 are getting the enlarged share of the pie by taking on some of VOD's debt.'
Will be interesting to see the final agreement. VOD are 3rd largest operator in UK with c18m subscribers. 3 are 4th largest with c9m. Think I saw 3 wanted to use $5Bn for their share and but this article says £15Bn for the combined entity.
Would be great if 3 are taking $5Bn debt?
https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2023/03/gbp15bn-vodafone-and-three-uk-mobile-merger-looks-imminent.html

Scaredycat, 'what will change sentiment?'
There are few levers, executing a couple of big deals would do it, like UK merger and Spain sale imo. We would have some clarity as to strategy when that happens. Just drifting along at the moment, paying a dividend though ;-) Patience.

*Market Value €24.7Bn

Yes, net assets €56Bn from last years statutory accounts.
What is the catalyst to bring the SP in line with the statutory view ie €56Bn statutory net realisable value?
Plenty of evidence this year that the sum of the parts are worth €56Bn to private equity.
Vantage should reflect positively in this years statutory group accounts and 3 merger and/or Spain sale hinting positively. India derisked. Revenues tracking inflation+ and costs hedged..

*€154Bn total assets

Hi Robleo, the uk merger is removing the cost of 1 network and overheads where there are currently 2. Personally I think it is followed by an IPO but could also be a move by liberty/ malone for additional consolidation in the uk. When the Nynex, bell cable media , videotron mergers happened with CW I ended up 176% cash return plus shares in NTL. Hard to model the outcome but VOD has c€154 total assets and €25Bn market value. It's not day trading, just an inevitable medium term change following government economic policies with day to day risks if you have move your position or believe guttersnipe et al

'If the merger does go ahead, will this affect the Vodafone share price?'
I think it will rerate to a more profitable/ higher horizon value also if the rest of EU follow the benefits of consolidation (malone and niel betting it will). Makes it a safer long term harbour for investors and stakeholders imo

*8
“You want to check your legal position, you do, mate. Under law the Quest for Ultimate Truth is quite clearly the inalienable prerogative of your working thinkers. Any bloody machine goes and actually finds it and we’re straight out of a job, aren’t we? I mean, what’s the use of our sitting up half the night arguing that there may or may not be a God if this machine only goes and gives you his bleeding phone number the next morning?”

“That’s right,” shouted Vroomfondel, “we demand rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty!”

Hello Daniel. To be honest, £2+, but the media has capped it at 185 (Deutsche Bank) so who am I to disagree.
Deep Thought of course was only the 2nd most advanced computer in the galaxy. The most advanced computer, Deep Thought says, will be the one that comes next—the second version of Deep Thought. Lets hope it will not be another 7,500,000 years to come to a conclusion and we get to 185 next friday.
Yes, I do love drawing norwegian fjords..

'I can tell you as a result of my research about the atoms this much: There is no matter as such! All matter originates and exists only by virtue of a force which brings the particles of an atom to vibration and holds this most minute solar system of the atom together. . .We must assume behind this force the existence of a conscious and intelligent Mind. '
LoL lovely. The assyrians thought the universe was the reflection of light in a pale of water. Dont we just love gold?

Hi, 185 for me every week until we hit 185, just by holding tight PLUS DIVIDENDS ;-)

Encouraged to see private equity still wants to buy any asset VOD wants to sell this week plus reengineering the finance.
€11.6Bn Italy, €7Bn Vantage, €4Bn+ Spain, €5Bn + UK merger, Hungary etc. Turkey and India could bring incremental good news too. E& 15% RNS still to land.
If you are going to be in, this is not a bad place to be with banks teetering on the brink of doom or else just sit in cash with 10% inflation

crikey, watching paint dry this week. the minute candles hung like door streamers keeping flies away.

Roofer, I dont think I watch another week!

Off the top of my head,
Alcatel german jv grows revenues
Vantage customers grows revenues
Enterprise/ business sector (all industry segments) return to growth, telco revenues grow
Industry consolidation/ operators exit (3) so vod customer base grows and or costs decrease
Indexed revenues across 8 eu countries increase revenues while costs are hedged
Device replacement cycle as consumer devices wear out
Roaming revenues as uk not in eu