The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
'Idiots please just go away. '
Yes, why does the banter increase negative toward the end of a week and spams the bb?
'3 are getting the enlarged share of the pie by taking on some of VOD's debt.'
Will be interesting to see the final agreement. VOD are 3rd largest operator in UK with c18m subscribers. 3 are 4th largest with c9m. Think I saw 3 wanted to use $5Bn for their share and but this article says £15Bn for the combined entity.
Would be great if 3 are taking $5Bn debt?
https://www.ispreview.co.uk/index.php/2023/03/gbp15bn-vodafone-and-three-uk-mobile-merger-looks-imminent.html
Scaredycat, 'what will change sentiment?'
There are few levers, executing a couple of big deals would do it, like UK merger and Spain sale imo. We would have some clarity as to strategy when that happens. Just drifting along at the moment, paying a dividend though ;-) Patience.
*Market Value €24.7Bn
Yes, net assets €56Bn from last years statutory accounts.
What is the catalyst to bring the SP in line with the statutory view ie €56Bn statutory net realisable value?
Plenty of evidence this year that the sum of the parts are worth €56Bn to private equity.
Vantage should reflect positively in this years statutory group accounts and 3 merger and/or Spain sale hinting positively. India derisked. Revenues tracking inflation+ and costs hedged..
*€154Bn total assets
Hi Robleo, the uk merger is removing the cost of 1 network and overheads where there are currently 2. Personally I think it is followed by an IPO but could also be a move by liberty/ malone for additional consolidation in the uk. When the Nynex, bell cable media , videotron mergers happened with CW I ended up 176% cash return plus shares in NTL. Hard to model the outcome but VOD has c€154 total assets and €25Bn market value. It's not day trading, just an inevitable medium term change following government economic policies with day to day risks if you have move your position or believe guttersnipe et al
'If the merger does go ahead, will this affect the Vodafone share price?'
I think it will rerate to a more profitable/ higher horizon value also if the rest of EU follow the benefits of consolidation (malone and niel betting it will). Makes it a safer long term harbour for investors and stakeholders imo
*8
“You want to check your legal position, you do, mate. Under law the Quest for Ultimate Truth is quite clearly the inalienable prerogative of your working thinkers. Any bloody machine goes and actually finds it and we’re straight out of a job, aren’t we? I mean, what’s the use of our sitting up half the night arguing that there may or may not be a God if this machine only goes and gives you his bleeding phone number the next morning?”
“That’s right,” shouted Vroomfondel, “we demand rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty!”
Hello Daniel. To be honest, £2+, but the media has capped it at 185 (Deutsche Bank) so who am I to disagree.
Deep Thought of course was only the 2nd most advanced computer in the galaxy. The most advanced computer, Deep Thought says, will be the one that comes next—the second version of Deep Thought. Lets hope it will not be another 7,500,000 years to come to a conclusion and we get to 185 next friday.
Yes, I do love drawing norwegian fjords..
'I can tell you as a result of my research about the atoms this much: There is no matter as such! All matter originates and exists only by virtue of a force which brings the particles of an atom to vibration and holds this most minute solar system of the atom together. . .We must assume behind this force the existence of a conscious and intelligent Mind. '
LoL lovely. The assyrians thought the universe was the reflection of light in a pale of water. Dont we just love gold?
Hi, 185 for me every week until we hit 185, just by holding tight PLUS DIVIDENDS ;-)
Encouraged to see private equity still wants to buy any asset VOD wants to sell this week plus reengineering the finance.
€11.6Bn Italy, €7Bn Vantage, €4Bn+ Spain, €5Bn + UK merger, Hungary etc. Turkey and India could bring incremental good news too. E& 15% RNS still to land.
If you are going to be in, this is not a bad place to be with banks teetering on the brink of doom or else just sit in cash with 10% inflation
crikey, watching paint dry this week. the minute candles hung like door streamers keeping flies away.
Roofer, I dont think I watch another week!
Off the top of my head,
Alcatel german jv grows revenues
Vantage customers grows revenues
Enterprise/ business sector (all industry segments) return to growth, telco revenues grow
Industry consolidation/ operators exit (3) so vod customer base grows and or costs decrease
Indexed revenues across 8 eu countries increase revenues while costs are hedged
Device replacement cycle as consumer devices wear out
Roaming revenues as uk not in eu
'Maybe a tectonic shock required'
Liberty Global possibly, at least in the UK.
'Looking to the future, high levels of investment will still be needed to deliver the networks that the UK requires but levels of capex spread across the current set of four individual players are unsustainable'
Pressure will be building with the regulator/ gov and cant be brushed under the carpet. 3 has been positioned to exit for many years. Perhaps as a stalking horse for remedies in 3's other uk interests/ employment commitments but malone/ niel interest suggest it is the starting gun for consolidation in uk (and eu)
Kirti, it's possible Africa business going to one party and the European business to another. Who would take the whole lot as the regions are at different stages of development with different governmental and regulatory interests. Easier to break it down in the parcels currently constructed in my opinion. And perhaps that's what is at play between E& and Malone
Roofer, no worries.
My prediction still stands, roofer prediction +0.1p lol
'Roofer 88p,
That's embarrassing Roofer...and no speech to explain your weekly success. Taught me to stick to a strategy ie roofer prediction +0.1p.
Next week I predict roofer prediction +0.1p
'Last thing they should be doing is raising the div.'
Why not?
Prices will increase for inflation next week. Cash cow plus asset sales. Shareholders like E&, Malone, Niel et al getting a return on their investment. No near term debt to repay. 2.5% coupon debt easily serviced. No incremental near term capex. I guess they could put the money on deposit at 6% interest...?