Member Info for slarti_bartfast

Dan, I am no expert, but here it is:
'As announced in March 2019, when the MCB was successfully placed, Vodafone entered into an accompanying option strategy to mitigate, partially or fully, any share price appreciation relative to the initial conversion price of the bonds, should Vodafone decide to execute a share buyback. Vodafone today announces that the exercise dates have been amended to mature over the next 12 months in order to match the optimal level of average daily share buy-backs to be pursued.'
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/VOD/share-buyback-programme-a6yke46pbmn0q2x.html

Lots of great information in this thread.

Is it the case that vod has taken out options against the sp going up whilst buying back and in all probability the sp will go up when these positions close?

Looking at Vodgers market values and trading revenues, its difficult to rationalise vod enterprise value c€70bn and market value €31bn.

Doesnt seem to be anything wrong with vod, it seems to be the market misallocating capital. Maybe higher interest rates wil tip the balance toward equity?

If vod continues to perform, we should be heading north in 2022 or 2023 and the dividend relatively secure?

'the data I see on investing.com says in 2002 the SP was 85p'
I remember buying at 80p! At the time, the funds were debating if Vod was a growth stock or a utility.

Back then the economics were based on minutes of voice. Today they are based on gb's/ tb's of data. Revenue and network costs dont scale in the same way today. With vantage, new efficiencies have been found and new value created.

If anyone thinks the sp has gone down the toilet, remember noone can go to the toilet without their mobile phone! LoL.
Happy New Year to you all and 150p in May

*prosperous, need new glasses !

and a prodperous new year.

An easy long term hold from here imo.
I can buy an annuity giving me 3.5% income pa. VOD gives me just under 7% and the prospect of capital growth over the next 10 years!

In the short term, Q3 and Q4 will be good performance according to the Management. All down to their execution as there is no shortage of opportunities.

With the world set to slowly open up, VOD should track gdp growth across its footprint imo

Agree with Fleccy we will see sharp upward movements and easy to miss if day trading or in cash etc

Aimo

META , Google et al think they can load more data/ consume more bandwidth for free having invested in their own submarine and terrestrial capacity to get to Europe. Its right they should pay a regulated wholesale 'premium' rate for usage imo

Nice. Top riser with BT this morning. Will they put out a higher number that Vivendi likes and a deal gets done?

I dont think anyone would go for all of VOD, too complicated/ difficult.
But the Europe Africa model reminds me of C&W where C&W Worldwide was picked up by VOD.
The TIM bid could help sentiment and the general value of telcos? I suppose BT, being the incumbent, will open higher?

Thanks Android, agree with the trend and sitting back to take the dividends. 145 minimum and watch for the RNS's.
Very good H1 results which I will read the detail over weekend but FY guidance improved to top end of the range.
Whats not to like?

Great stuff.
Thats all I wanted. I will take the Div, spend it over Xmas and switching off to the next RNS!
GLA

'It's a veritable merrigoround these days.'
Does seem like taking in each others washing. If history repeats, we should see some action hinted at by the CEO.

C&W sold HKT to PCCW who are owned by Hutchison, who also own 3. VOD bought CWW while Liberty bought CWC. VOD bought liberty germany and Hutchison Essar etc etc
If I was a betting man, I'd bet on another big deal to 'dedupe infrastructure' ?

'I can't quite get my head around the valuation on vantage. Seems to be on a PE over 50 with single figure growth prospects.'
I guess because its got a monopoly on sites and interest rates lower for longer in its markets. High growth PE companies tend to come down as competition increases or bubbles burst, I guess..

Looks like Vantage well received, SP up.

'multiple regulators'
OFCOM over the years has been 1st mover, with BEREC et al converging on 'common defintions', cost etc under WTO/ GATTS rules. BREXIT has been about the movement of goods between (sovereign) markets which I guess impacts the device/ box supply chain, but services everyone has a more holistic 'digital' view and 5G the standard going forward. I suppose UK could revert to OFTEL and challenge BEREC under this government?

Holding for a good update.
50/50 if same trading pattern as week commencing 12 April.
This time it will be different :-)
weekly candle nice and bullish
https://invst.ly/wlgy1

The CEO says the div is sustainable and the guidance this FY expecting €15.0-15.4bn EBITDA & >€5.2bn Adjusted FCF
Q1 they confirmed guidance on track so if Q2 is same then seems safe to ride out the capital markets clunky mechanics.
I wont sell any at a loss. Maybe I add if it goes 107 or double up if it goes 100. Going to switch off for an autumn holiday and back for results.
GLA

'The short sellers know early Nov has a report coming too.'

Interesting, 0.001% short interest back and forth each week over the recent period of SP decline seems to be all that was needed c27.5m shares (Marshall Wace).

Perhaps the ii's will pile in now or they wait for confirmation in the H1 reporting
https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BH4HKS39/

'Morningstar analysts think the shares are attractively valued at around 110p, way below their fair value of 185p. Despite a dividend cut before the pandemic, the currently stock yields nearly 7%, much higher than the FTSE 100 average.'
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/215940/why-are-vodafone-shares-cheap.aspx

skid, you are right in general but Vod has convertible bonds too. I like cashflow (any definition) as a measure from one period to the next.
All the moving parts simplified like servicing equity, debt, capex, working capital etc .
This FY expecting €15.0-15.4bn EBITDA & >€5.2bn Adjusted FCF as per guidance

Good post GLTader. Makes the BB an interesting read.