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I hope to update over the weekend, just finishing off another project now.
Somethings have been mentioned previously, and put on flikr, but I think I'm now able to put it all together and create a coherent narrative.
Parts are necessarily speculative, but I think each stage will be backed up with evidence, so everyone can make up their own minds.
There is certainly more going on than in the RNS's, but it is left to third parties to report the news not He1.
Saint Lorna's style is Sphinx-like, there should be little doubt about that now, no more breathless commentaries...
Wyndrum, yes a loan would be great! Or a JV to offload some responsibility for Rukwa.
I believe DM was offered a great prize at the beginning of the year, but he wouldn't take it, wishing to stay in Rukwa.
LB, and IS and a majority of the board disagreed, so he had to go.
It did involve the rig business but that was just a part of it.
This was a strategic disagreement, not just about being unable to get a rig.
LB I believe is charting a new course, I'll explain over weekend, (helped by another rabbit hole, no time now) with what I think is fairly compelling evidence. If I'm correct we shouldn't have too much to worry about share price wise in 2024, and there will be a much bigger "buzz" around this company than at present.
We'll be moving up to the next level, and LB will be returning to her roots.
Mmm, I think in He1's case getting government approval/permissions wouldn't be too much of a problem.
If we are still at Rukwa as operator in 2024, then that would be four seasons there, almost painful.
It is painful as a shareholder.
There are other interesting places to go, and some I'd suggest much more in keeping with Saint Lorna's skill set, and dare I say it, maybe personal preferences.
Owning our own rig would then really make sense.
Question is, if there were only results for one well, even if very good, would that be enough to swing it for a JV on decent terms, and we could then put Rukwa on autopilot?
Just a few very brief points/observations and question -
1. If the company gets a good/excellent result at Tai-3, and is able to issue a revised CPR, do people think that may be sufficient for the company to do a JV or farm out Rukwa or a part of it in 2024?
Ideally she wanted results from two wells, looks like she'll have to do with one now, so any CPR might not be quite as good as she'd hoped. A strike by Noble may assist?
2. The company is seeking authority to issue up to 315M new shares (a slightly differently worded resolution than previous years, on 14-3- 2022 was 200M, on 15-2-2023 was 273M - always around 33%). They have usually by hook or by crook gone almost up to the limit. 315M would give them £18.9M @ 6p, but hopefully they'll be able to raise higher. 12p and they'd get nearly £40M, 18p £60M, so on and so forth.
That the AGM is brought forward yet again suggests that they are wanting flexibility to raise cash. Not necessarily bad, depends what it is for.
3. They seem a "bit vague" with regard to the future drilling programmes, merely referring to "future wells" and "updated forward operational programme". Not even Itumbula-1 mentioned, nor Rukwa for that matter.
4. They (He1) still seem to want to keep the cost of the Epiroc 220 under wraps, same at Hotspur, their accounts also cut off at 30-6-2023, and they say something along the lines of no material activity since year end, even though they sold their only significant asset just 10 days after year end. Cluff the same. We have bought it - that is the only way to interpret the 10-7-2023 RNS, but there appears something about the deal they want to keep under wraps.
But I would be interested to know what people think about point 1.
Dai, I will show in a later post (may be a number of days) that there is no question that he was sacked on 8-2-23.
The company began to change course the minute he went. There must have been an absolutely massive bust up over strategy.
There are a few hints on my Flikr feed of where a future post may go, but I'm still gathering the evidence.
But the company is like a super tanker, you can hardly see it turning at first, but there is no question we are setting a new course.
But much of the new strategy relies upon this new rig being successful and reliable. Provided it is then it will enable the Tz government to achieve a goal which it has been trying to accomplish for almost 20 years.
The helium is important but not the only show in town.
They will take the time to get this drill right, even if it means sacrificing Itumbula-1 for 2023.
IMHO there is much riding on this drill, more than just finding helium at Tai-3.
I believe that on 8-2-23 the direction and strategy of the company changed, broadened, and this goes some way to explaining certain recent events such as the dismissal of DM, the purchase of the rig, obtaining new acreage and deals with the Tz government.
But LB owns this new strategy, even though it may not yet be full explained to shareholders, and she needs a success, not only for shareholders but also for watching third parties.
She will do everything in her power to make sure this comes right, even at the short term expense of shareholders.
There is a longer term game afoot.
Interesting share price action today, if you are a trader (and get the timing right) there is money to be made.
From the price action yesterday it looks like someone knew of issues around mid-day.
Muted reaction today considering, but maybe someone knows more than we do.
Anyway, Noble are rigging up at Mbelele-2 -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53322876939/in/dateposted-public/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53321659987/in/dateposted-public/
What are the chances of a joint press conference to announce results of all 3 wells?
Only joking...;-}
But maybe not absolutely zero?
GG, yes the Helium Super Summit is a bit of clue.
Lorna doesn't give much away, that is also a clue. Some seemed to think she had remained a while in Rukwa, I suspect she hasn't been there for weeks, and now she pops up in Houston, 30-10 to 1-11
He1 didn't have a stand, but both Noble and Pulsar did, Noble were a sponsor.
So the "Big 3" Rukwa players were all in the same room. Wonder how the conversations went?
LB to JW "How's you drill going?"
JW to LB "How's YOUR drill going?"
T A-J to both "We're too smart to pay for a drill, but do tell how both your drills are going"
Anyway after the summit, JW posted a tweet on 2-11 and just happened to mention that he was in "LA".
Which company has their HQ in Hawthorne, California? Hawthorne being a district in LA. Name dropper.
And if you look carefully at the 11-2020 AD you can discern that senior management of Pulsar have almost certainly exercised warrants in He1 during October 2023. So T A-J asking questions could be pertinent.
And "The Citizen" Tanzania has picked up on Tai-3 -
https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/business/helium-one-global-uncovers-promising-helium-results-in-tai-3-well-in-tanzania-4427196
The article leans heavily on the RNS, but adds this bit at the end "Helium One is poised to become a global strategic player in resolving the global helium supply shortage."
And owning our own rig allows He1 "To take control of its drilling destiny in Tanzania".
I think someone has been talking.
Having said that both Noble and He1 whilst being the most active players in Tanzania are fairly small in helium licence acreage when compared to some other slightly mysterious companies, which appear to have swept up significant areas of helium licences and then done....nothing.
In fact those licences, have been applied for around 7 years ago (some more recently), approved and then not issued. They appear to be in limboland, but for the applicant the advantages of limboland is that there are no annual licence fees and no work requirement. No doubt if matters go the right way for He1 and Noble those licences will then be issued to the applicants, will then be more valuable than snow and saleable.
In fact the applicants seem to have a bit of a habit of following He1 and Noble around, in something of an elaborate and large scale game of chess.
Itumbula-1 does look in doubt now, maybe we don't need it.
And whilst Saint Lorna gives very little away, He1 has been very active in places other than Rukwa, but never says.
Another clue that Saint Lorna being Sphynx-like doesn't mean that there is nothing to say.
I suspect in 2024 our rig will be Eyasi bound, and will be looking for much more than helium.
Helium is great, but the market really ain't that big. Other commodities do have BIG markets.
Another rabbit hole for the weekend, perhaps.
There is a myth that Noble have done all 3D.
It is a myth.
Mbelele-1 has only 2D.
Mbelele-2 has 3D.
But most of their 3D is on the other side of the lake where it is $100M to drill a well.
Many other players circling about also, some with more acres than us, but perhaps not as advanced.
Yellow are granted licences, clear are applications, likely to be approved.
But some applications sit for years, in limbo, seemingly waiting.
Noble dominate North Rukwa but we now dominate Eyasi.
Eyasi is interesting, with many 'independent' players, sitting up in the gods, waiting to see what action occurs.
Just by way of a bit of background, this is the first part of a current Work in Progress concerning our neighbours at Rukwa.
This first part deals with North Rukwa, mostly familiar names, but a couple of newbies.
South Rukwa likely to be similar, but Eyasi could be interesting, I feel we might be approaching a rabbit hole, quite where it will lead I'm not sure at the moment.
Anyway here is the first part of the map, all the licences not named deal with minerals other than helium.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53313421152/in/dateposted-public/
Because as a result of the DM razzmatazz brigade the sp went to 28p, and then within a month or so crashed to 6p.
Now no-one, apart from traders and die hards will touch it with a bargepole, if you hadn't noticed, so perhaps a more long term measured approach would be called for.
These are the licences which He1 has now applied for at Eyasi, applications from 8-2-23 to 15-2-23.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53311949708/in/dateposted-public/
Fast mover Saint Lorna, I bet DM hadn't even cleared his desk and she was whacking those applications in. She probably shouted "Shut the door behind you!" as she signed them off.
I'm beginning to feel those vibes, and the lady is no pushover. Did anyone ever think she was?
Will look further later in the week. It looks like there are around half a dozen other companies milling around Eyasi and at Rukwa, not doing a lot, and letting He1 and Noble do all the leg work.
Still by Christmas we should know how the land lies for sure, hopefully a big hint this week.
"H one have already lines up the new Hi Lux's in preparation lol"
I think maybe trading licences is more appropriate?
And possibly more valuable to the recipient.
I'm not suggesting anything untoward, but you do have to shimmy along sometimes...
The map also indicates that He1 have applied for licences covering a vast area of the Eyasi basin just to the east of Lake Eyasi.
A total of at least 8 licences covering around 1736 sq km. Applications all made around mid February 2023 (anyone recall any other event happening around then?) and approval is recommended.
This makes the deal made with PUMA and the Tz government last month much more relevant, as it appears that our applications for helium licences cover all the oil prospecting area where the government is looking for the black stuff.
It makes this map posted a few weeks ago much more relevant, showing our licences and the 2D seismic carried out during the from July to October 2023 -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53274349179/in/dateposted-public/
But at that time I thought it just covered a small part of our licence area.
It will take time to do all the GE stuff, maybe later in the week, but our applications appear to cover most of the areas where the 2D seismic was carried out, here -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53274275118/in/dateposted-public/
and the seismic here -
https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53273883631/in/dateposted-public/
There is a research paper floating around somewhere, I'll have to try and dig it out.
Over on Telegram there is a pinned tweet on the Eyasi PUMA deal saying there is a joint partnership (elsewhere it is described as a joint venture) to drill Eyasi with the Tz government, we will be the operator, will get to keep the helium and a share of any oil/gas which is found.
And this thing is 5p and valued at less that £50M.
Strewth.
I know they have to find the stuff, but it does appear to have direction.
Talk about playing you cards tight.
Saint Lorna might think she is the Sphynx, but I do think the Sphynx actually makes more noise.
Tell us that you were going to tell us?
Wimbledon - you are genius!
No it is not "really old news".
Will take a while to digest but indicates that there are likely other players active at Lake Rukwa apart from He1, Noble and D3/Kidunda.
What it also shows is that of the northern and eastern licences we announced we had relinquished by the RNS of 14-9-2022, and those where we did not pursue the applications referred to in the AD of 2020, around 90% of those by area have either been re awarded to others or are pending award with the application recommended.
In fact Kidunda applied for its licences on 15-7-2022, two months prior to our announcing we had relinquished much of what are now their areas.
Also indicated Kidunda hold no other than the three licences we already know about.
Only those to the SE have not been re awarded although they are now designated "Reserved 4 month Areas", whatever that means.
Will investigate, although hopefully we will soon be overtaken by rapid and multiple "good news" events.