You can almost feel the frustration and anticipation on the board over the last few days.
My own view is that every day is a day nearer news, and that whilst the lack of action in the share price is frustrating, it represents an opportunity to top up.
So I'm still chillaxed.
Befitting me, my explanation for the lack of a rise is relatively simple.
Almost 70% of the AAOG shares in issue were issued in the last 8 months. That is a great tsunami of shares coming on to the market. Some have gone to long term holders, many have not. They are gradually being soaked up, but many are still in traders hands. People have bought in anticipating news in March, we're now in April with as yet no news, and there are some easy picking to be made elsewhere, so they sell and the price falls.
AAOG still seems to be something of a trades share - not that I'm trading any.
Following the last issuance in January up to early April we seemed to be in a trading range of 9.4p to 10.7p. Now for the time being 10.7 appears to be the base, having been tested twice. So maybe we are in a slightly higher, tighter 10.7p to 11.6p trading range. Time will tell.
But news will come. I'm sure we will get an RNS by 30th April with good news. Whether it is the CPR I'm no so sure, the share price is not reflecting imminent blockbuster news. I suspect we'll get more news on SNPC payments (I was a sceptic, but obviously we are now being paid), maybe 102 water injection, maybe something completely unexpected.
The SNPC payments are really important on a day to day basis, as they obviate the need for any funding, and give DS and JB time and options.
The CPR, when it does come,will be, I think, indeed a blockbuster. DS says it is "very,very good", he has "lots of excited geo's" and they hit thicker than expected pay at every level. In the latest interview he refers to the difficulty they had controlling the well and that they thought it had been damaged by the amount of mud they had to pump down it to control the pressure. That the Djeno flowed indicates it was not damaged.
What appears to be DS's baseline reserves and resources figure as illustrated in the recent presentation is 300 million barrels. "Good" I would say is somewhere near that figure. "Very good" - I'd say that is somewhere north of that figure, "Very, very good", I'd say would be considerably north of that figure and I think the CPR will come in somewhere between 400/500+ million barrels.
That, I believe, is one reason why it is taking so long, as the report when it comes out needs to be bullet proof.
DS says it is well worth waiting for, and I'm sure it will be.
Between April 2017 and October 2018 CNOOC have drilled at least 6 wells right on AAOG's doorstep.
This illustrates their activities - https://ibb.co/JKrN2nY
I'm lurking here too!
I wonder where all those EHGOSF shares have gone?
Last week they reduced from 18.17% to 11.12%, with 28M gone on 16th April and 27.5M gone on 17th April. They had earlier smaller reductions which appear to be only partly accounted for.
As 3% is around 24M presumably were are due a couple of RNS's, unless they are being divvied up in small chunks to interested parties.
Interesting situation nonetheless.
BC, the presentation dated 2nd April 2019 says plan is to first increase production from 101 then second produce fro 103 R2/Mengo.
Seems pretty clear to me, although of course plans can change.
Combined 101/2 and 103 could produce about 2Kbpd - that is around $3M per month after expenses.
Certainly agree with you on cash, they can't risk running out of cash or wrecking 103. Djeno oil is great news but clearly there is something going on down there they don't fully understand, otherwise it wouldn't have flowed.
What's not to like about a relatively quick $3M per month.
But preserving cash and not wrecking 103 must be top priorities. Fancy stuff can come later.
Anyway I'm sure something pretty big is brewing, as apart from titbits, it has been radio silence for almost three months now.
Agree, both JB and DS are big hitters.
They wouldn't be interested in AAOG if it wasn't going anywhere.
They are simply intelligent enough and ambitious enough to utilise other peoples capital, as opposed to their own, to achieve their goals.
They and the rest of the board are top drawer, and we are fortunate enough to be able to ride their coattails.
Hi gmcc, I'll continue to report whatever I may see.
I suspect it is only a matter of time before we get fairly major news, so my musings may become largely irrelevant.
Even though we're well into the 11's I suspect that the sp is still being carefully restrained, although why I'm not so sure. I am sure this will blow pretty big fairly soon though.
Did have a bit of a punt over at ROSE but exiting now. Not interested any more, but suspect it was all down to ready availability of cash $$$$.
Interesting how AAOG can move very fast these days.
We're getting on for almost three months without what I would call "proper" news - I regard SNPC ex licence as "housekeeping" and the Djeno oil flow whilst important was "accidental" (appreciate others may view things differently) - so we are certainly due quite a bit.
Suspect things are whirring away in the background (you can almost hear it) and that DS and JB are busy. If DS says he's "busy" I suspect quite a bit is happening and will be revealed in due course.
Just requires a bit of patience.
I know we differ on the means and possible dynamics of any deal, that isn't important really.
The important thing to me is that DS and JB were brought in by disgruntled shareholders, effectively going over the heads of the board. Half the board have jumped ship, so its two old guard vs our two new boys.
Our boys have access to the $, clearly the old guard didn't, and no doubt they've struggled mightily to raise cash for quite some time now.
So whoever has access to $, DS and JB, basically they say what goes.
Agree they wouldn't want a black mark on their "tip top" CV's, so now awaiting developments......
I'm lurking here also. The "other side" is getting a bit emotional, so I'm giving it a bit of a rest over there.
Looks interesting here and worth a modest holding.
Hopefully they'll put something worthwhile together, however they achieve it.
Obviously each viewer/shareholder/potential shareholder must make up their own mind as to what they see in the images.
But I don't see the dirt track.
The resolution certainly isn't great, around 3 metres "ish" but then the Planet Lab satellites are only the size of a household microwave oven. Digital Globe provides much higher resolution, 30 cm, if you pay quite a bit for it, but they only overfly every few weeks or months.
PL satellites are sun synchronous, they take the image at 09.09UT almost every other day, so no need to bother with shadows etc.
The best way of comparing is to flick between similar images to see the differences. I tend to get all the images up in the browser and then flick between them.
This is the pad with the rig in place or in the process of dismantling taken 6th February 2019. Although the rig is just a "blob", we know it was there then as they'd just RNS'd the Djeno find. Quite a bit of heavy equipment on site, but the area where the "X" is now located, is clear.
This is around the time of dismantling on 3rd March 2019. The "blob" is a bit smaller, and presumably there was a lot of heavy equipment moving around, but the "X" area then, was still clear.
This is 13th March 2019, the "blob" (rig) has completely disappeared just leaving a discoloured area where it had been. The "X" area still appears clear, although there maybe something there at this time.
Then by 8th April 2019 the distinctive "X" has appeared, and the 103 site is just a fading bare patch.
The key thing is that all the heavy equipment (which would leave tracks) had been moved off site between 3rd March and 13th March, but the distinctive "X" shape didn't appear until sometime between 13th March and 8th April so the "X" is really unlikely to be related to tracks left by moving heavy equipment.
But everyone must make up their own minds.
And I'm certainly not saying what they are or maybe or maybe not doing, just that they appear to be doing "something".
No doubt all will be revealed in an RNS eventually (or not, as the case may be), but if they do RNS something to do with 102, just remember - you heard it here first.
I posted a Planet Labs image yesterday of the Tilapia pad taken on 8th April 2019.
This appears to confirm that there is no new activity around the site of TLP-103C.
But a careful inspection of the image reveals a chromosome shaped "X" slightly below of the centre of the Tilapia pad complex. Presumably this is some sort of pipe arrangement.
This "piping" was not in place when the TLP-103C rig was present - this was taken on 31st December 2018
and from earlier images the "piping", although indistinct in earlier images seems to have appeared around mid March 2019.
So what are they up to?
This image shows the Tilapia pad mid 2018, prior to the TLP-103 drill.
I've annotated 103 and 103C because we know where they are. 101V and 101ST must be correct (although possibly interchangeable) as 101ST is the production well.
Quite where 201bis/201bisST were drilled I'm not sure, possibly next to the 101's.
If I've got 102 correct then it looks like one leg of the piping runs from the "102" wellhead, another leg to a mud pit, the third leg to production wellheads 101V/101ST and the fourth slightly to the NE of the original 103 drill site.
The 3rd January 2019 RNS indicated that they were considering using 102 as a water injection well.
I'm not sure what such works would look like but maybe they're doing something with "102" at the moment, maybe further investigations, or actually working on it.
I've posted the images so people can make up their own minds.
Lots to look forwards to here.
All IMHO, DYOR etc
Now up 0.15!
On twitter they are comparing AAOG shareholders to some sort of intolerant fascist hooligan saying "I guess they (AAOG shareholders) are something like this...."
Clearly some will stoop at nothing to dissuade people from investing.
Just take it one step further...
£170m market cap = 71p per share!
In fact I'd say you are underestimating potential revenue, but I can't fault the overall logic.
The odd few million in revenue is neither here nor there, but the ultimate direction of travel is obvious.
Sneaking up again and still getting blasted on twitter........
Yes, I am counting on DS, and JB to do the "right thing".
I sort of hinted at that in an earlier post, as it is noticeable that previous drilling at Tilapia took place in 1994/5 and 2006/7, both times shortly before a collapse in oil prices.
I'm thinking both times there had been "great expectations" and they used up all their finances drilling and when it came to finally producing they were on a shoestring as a result of falling prices, and could then never fully develop the asset.
Obviously I don't know the full history here, but the great thing about Tilapia is we have the topside facilities, roads, tanks etc to do around 4Kbpd already in place, so why not use those greatly under utilised facilities before spending loads more cash on improving them.
Anyway still a great prospect, and a bit of a pull back is always healthy.
Interesting theory BC.
I wouldn't necessarily dismiss it out of hand although I'm not quite sure how it would work.
There is a lot of news to come - but since the "biggie" of the Djeno reservoir find on 29th January 2019, apart from SNPC repayment matter (which I regard as a bit of red herring) the only news we have actually had is regarding confirmation that there is actually Djeno oil in the well - and that was presumably an unintended consequence of it pushing past the concrete plug.
As of yesterday morning there appears to be no new equipment present on the 103C pad
So maybe they are indeed considering their options.
DS did hint a few weeks ago that he would like to get the Djeno into production.
Could they raise enough money on the back of the CPR, hopefully via debt to get them through to production?
I'd say probably $10M for the rig, top facilities upgrade (guess) $2M, running money probably to end 2019 $3M, contingency $2M - so that results in~$17M+.
They wouldn't need a pipeline for 5Kbpd as around 25 truck loads a day would do it, at least short term.
Could they raise that via debt? Bit of a tall order, but we'll see what the CPR says.
I doubt very much if DS would do it via equity, as even he must see now that the last two fund raisings have completely knackered the share price for the last 9 months, and that is continuing now.
Perhaps more importantly, whilst the prize is large, it raises the risk profile, as 103C is the only decent well we actually have at the moment.
DS presents AAOG as being low(er) risk, so in keeping with that the chances are he'd bring 103C into production first with R2 and Mengo.
Now if of course they did a deal with a "Major" that would solve all the problems - SNPC get a free carry and (probably) cash, we (probably) get cash and a funding deal, and any licence issues are sorted.
Despite the fall today I get the feeling that this remains a coiled spring.
Very, very heartened by the price (and other) action today - up 0.45p to 11.45p!
Third day of blue in a row.
Not only did we have the pointless argument on here, just to distract everybody, by people who chase each other round the boards trading insults, but AAOG has also had a torrent of abuse on Twitter over the last several days and continuing today.
The stuff going round Twitter is very negative from DS being a scammer, 103C will only ever produce 200bpd, the API43 oil is rubbish and will never sell, there is a placing coming, AAOG can't even keep the lights on, DS is more interested in ROSE than us, where is the CPR etc etc.
Some two bit trader has "announced" he's even put a "sell" rating on it. As if his 200 followers are bothered.
But more importantly the price is up!
The selling continues but the last 2 hours of trading were interesting.
1.5 million sells vs 300K buys and the MM's could only knock the price down by 0.05p. Indeed towards the close after a torrent of sells totalling 500K, a 5K buy was enough to shift the price upwards.
The MM's seemed happy to keep lapping up all those shares as the selling continued towards the close despite there apparently being no buyers around. This contrasts very much with their attitude over the last several months.
Whilst the price didn't maintain the high of 11.9p, I suspect that we will continue to maintain our gentle upwards momentum for some time yet.