Member Info for skittish

I haven't posted on here for quite a while, I was flummoxed by the fall to 0.19p and at one time was sitting on a 98% loss.

A little bit of dealing has recovered the situation somewhat, so possibly onwards and upwards.

The recent raise of £4.7M seems unduly hasty, given that no doubt further results, CPR etc are expected, and these should be good, given the presence of free flowing gaseous helium and hydrogen. They could have raised more presumably at a better price, but perhaps time is not on their side.

Those who followed by previous posts know that I expect that Rukwa will be abandoned in 2024 and He1 will look to move to Eyasi in 2024 becoming a strategic partner with the Tanzanian government looking for oil/gas and helium around the Eyasi Lake area.

I suspect that the Itumbula prospect will be subject to some sort of farm out deal, allowing He1 to concentrate its day to day resources on Eyasi.

To who will it be farmed out?

Well there is another outfit just to the east of us, Kidunda Ltd which is now owned by the original owners of He1. Itumbula W wasn't only a test of our prospect but also of theirs, but they didn't have to pay for it. Their licence is only around 4.5km from Itumbula W , and could be the best prospect in the whole of the Rukwa Valley, here -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53514833844/in/dateposted-public/

Our prospects are in turquoise, theirs in purple.

Kidunda is due to list on the ASE in due course via D3 Energy. He1 also "accidentally" shot around 4km of 2D seismic over their licence area in 2022, helpful that.

Interestingly Kidunda also issued new shares for an investment by new investors just as He1 was awaiting results of the Tai-3 well, almost as if someone knew that they would be a decent prospect.

On the same date He1 created a new company East Africa Holdings Limited, which they subsequently admitted at the AGM was to deal with the Eyasi prospect.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53508216124/in/dateposted-public/

The rush to raise is interesting, and the licence map of Rukwa may give a clue as to what is going on. This is a comparison of the map in November 2023 with today -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53513585597/in/dateposted-public/

Other players have given up large areas of helium licences in the last few months, especially HRV, and Noble, so there are large areas of licences now open to new bidders.

Something similar has taken place at Eyasi, but not on the same scale, as Rukwa Helium (T) Ltd has given up its licence, and if He1 were now to bid for that would given them a clear run across the whole of the Eyasi Valley, with their 3 awarded licences and the 9 pending (secret) applications.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53315420152/in/dateposted-public/

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53315769617/in/dateposted-public/

Much news to come here, given a little patience.

Someone has done a reasoned calculation on another (rival) site suggesting that PRIM could get around £3.75M from the deal. Others suggest more.

It is about time this rerated.

It is unfortunate that it is the legacy investments that appear to be doing well. The previous management clearly knew their stuff, but greed in terms of remuneration was their downfall, and hubris in thinking that they only needed to own a relatively small part of the company left them vulnerable.

Yes, looks like someone has accumulated another 500K.

Resolutions look like progress, unlikely we'll have to wait 10 days to see the detail.

There were similar resolutions around a year ago, but they look to have changed the memorandum and articles, so we'll see.

Presumably Mr Ball is sufficiently confident in his calculations to put around £750K into this.

500M in 30 mins! They are flipping the lot!

T&C's mean nothing, hence why they're not highlighted.

We will never truly know what has gone on but it is mismanagement of the rig which has sunk the company.

I suspect DM, IS and one other didn't want the rig bought, the others did, so as to propel the company to oil and gas and helium at Eyasi and a strategic partnership with the government.

They all went before the you know what hit the fan, IS sold out, they knew what was coming.

It is the present directors who have let us down, wanting the big time, instead we are on life support, but for how long?

There will be no enforcement of the flipping clause, so they will be flipped.

It is all nonsense to impress Aim investors.

Time for the bin.

No chance of a recovery here.

Well done Lorna, Cope and the Board.

JH, note 15 in the accounts -

" Included within cash and cash equivalents of $9.6 million, was a sum of approximately $2.1 million held in escrow at 30 June 2023 in contemplation of the completion of a sale and purchase transaction which was non-binding at the Balance Sheet date. Subsequent to 30 June 2023, the transaction was completed and the funds utilised."

The rig had a written down value of $1.81M in the Cluff accounts.

So this can only refer to the rig, IMHO.

Of course the rig has cost us much more in repairs and downtime, and ultimately may have actually sunk the company.

Someone suggested that may be why DM actually went, Cluff put it on their website as available on 7-2-2023, DM went on 8-2-2023. Of course it is also all tied up with the Eyasi buiiness as well, and us trying to punch above our weight by becoming a strategic partner with the Tz government using the rig as leverage.

But part of the Eyasi deal is that we also need to have "financial capability" and I think that now there is precious little of that available.

The rig cost is in the accounts!

There arec3 Itumbula sites, SE, W and the laydown. The repairs were done at the laydown, which was clear as at 17-12.

The rig now appears to be at W, likely rigging, or now rigged up.

All very quick, not much time.

Still haven't seen the AGM, so flying a bit blind, but Sentinel tells me...

Weather is balmy, today we actually get the best view for quite a while, it has rained, but tales of torrential rain precluding drilling in December were greatly exaggerated, still quite dry in places, our part of Rukwa, if you look very closely you can see Tai-3 and the Itumbula pads -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53404359099/in/dateposted-public/

Itumbula general arrangement -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53404037391/in/dateposted-public/

Itumbula-2 (West) clearly much movement on the pad over the last 5 days, the cellar still appears at least partly exposed suggesting that it is not as yet actually fully erected on the pad. But it is there, it would appear, along with all the associated equipment. There looks like something on the roadway leading to the pad so some equipment may still be arriving.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53404358159/in/dateposted-public/

Tai-3 appears all but abandoned, may be used for storage of pipes etc, but not much else.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53404474375/in/dateposted-public/

My view would be that anyone who thinks we are going back there anytime soon is mistaken. Time will not allow it in any event, if we are to do Eyasi for oil/gas/helium in 2024.

But we are between a rock and a hard place. From the bit I have been able to read I think the Board are also mystified and mesmerised by the price collapse. They need to stop thinking about things subject to ratification, and tell us their concrete plans if they were able to raise sufficient funds. They obviously have such plans, and they are to be seen at Companies House, the Tz govt portal and the Tz government Linkedin pages. No secrets there, so tell us and the markets Lorna, before it is too late.

I doubt if the Tz government will be interested unless we are able to put in more than just a rig.

And the new company is UK based, no BVI nonsense there. UK courts and UK law, it is for a reason.

Noble Mbelele-2 15-12-2023, for those interested, rig is also probably still there, along with much equipment.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53404046216/in/dateposted-public/

The rig cost $2.1m, it is in the accounts, but a little hidden, but it is there.

Of course we don't know what has been spent on it since.

Just quickly, before it gets buried tomorrow.

The Rukwa licensing map appears to have changed.

Noble look to have withdraw applications for at least 4 licences.

Contrast from yesterday

https://flic.kr/p/2pmpACp

With the earlier map

https://flic.kr/p/2pe8dGq

Helium Rift Valley Limited also appears to have given up vast swathes of licences, going from 55 applications/approvals to 12.

Our licences remain the same at 18 issued and 9 secret Eyasi applications/approvals.

Prompted by drill results?

Either people aren't so bothered anymore or the Tz government wants action. HRVL had sat on their licences doing nothing for 6 years.

Large areas of Tanzania with helium potential are now suddenly unlicensed.

Value destruction on an epic scale.

Will be 90% down over 6 months, and for what?

None of this shower should ever be allowed near another company.

But they'll just shuffle off into other directorships but I bet He1 will never appear on their CV's.

The punchline was intended to be -

"Could not be distinguished from a corpse"

But maybe it already is, and we just don't know it yet?

Which isn't a lot considering our share price has been trashed, by the company themselves, and our ability to raise funds upon which we rely in the future, has almost been destroyed.

I expect that the end game will be that our licences and trusty rig, having been thoroughly tested with a couple of drills, will end up in the hands of others, but it will be a "good deal" we will be told and all those tax losses will be of use to someone, until such time as no one is interested, and the whole sorry mess disappears for ever a la AAOG.

Anyway Sentinel...our part of Rukwa, earlier today -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53392361667/in/dateposted-public/

Quite a fair day, some high level cloud and showers, but for the lost part clear. and rainfall remains very modest, large areas of brown where it has hardly rained at all. Clearly those forecasts of torrential December downpours were somewhat exaggerated, at least thus far.

Tai-3 is just peeping though the clouds, no change there, it is largely deserted, so far as I can see.

But a decent view of Itumbula today, the first for around 3 weeks, albeit a little hazy high level cloud.

This is the geography -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53393728565/in/dateposted-public/

This is a comparison of 22-11-2023, the last clear day and today

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53393287801/in/dateposted-public/

What appears to be the cellar at Itumbula-1 appears still appears exposed. Most of the accommodation appears to be there, but that main block is only around 50M long, at Tai-3 there were two rows of accommodation of around 80M each. Unless it is configured differently where is the rest? It should stand out a mile, but I can't see anything anywhere. Other bits and pieces, vehicles on the pad also.

And if they hadn't built two pads where would that accommodation we can see on the Itumbula-1 pad have gone, left at Tai-3 maybe?

And Maxar seems to suggest that the roadway to Itumbula-2 was improved somewhat as long ago as the beginning of September, which was long before another pad was even thought about, so far as we poor shareholders are aware.

Itumbula-2 what appears to be the cellar seems to be still exposed, the rig appears not to be erected over it (as it would be dark otherwise) although there is clearly other equipment on that pad also, I assume part of that is the rig.

The "lay down" area now appears largely empty, as is Camp Rukwa.

It is to be hoped that we get some answers later this week, but pity the poor share price and those of us who hold the shares.

Closeup of Itumbula 1 and 2 -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53393484283/in/dateposted-public/

And if it wasn't for Sentinel we would have no idea of where all this was taking place, we'd just have to rely on a few grainy tweeted images.

A publicity shy company, who would have thought it?

Any more low key and the company could not be disting

Just for information.

These are the licence areas around Rukwa outlined in the December 2020 admission document.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53206195230/in/dateposted-public/

Note the unusual gap in licences in the middle - we never applied for that one, just to the East of Itumbula, possibly the most prospective licence around.

This is the licence map now

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53312737487/in/dateposted-public/

Since 2022 Kidunda have taken the "gap" licence and two of our other applications, Pemba one of our applications, and Noble most of the other.

This is Eyasi showing our "secret" applications and the dates of those. The deal with PURA/TPDC came about supposedly to resolve the issue of "overlapping licences since 2017".

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53315420152/in/dateposted-public/

But the issue only really arose when we applied for the licences earlier this year. Noble also has overlapping licences, as have others, no PURA/TPDC agreement with them!

And this is the overlapping oil/gas licence area, with our new "secret" licences, and the 2D survey area which was carried out last Summer.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53315769617/in/dateposted-public/

No conspiracies here!

This is all fact, but undisclosed. Thank goodness the Tz government isn't as secretive as Saint Lorna.

They're quite happy to publish the lot on their websites.

And at Eyasi PURA drilled 3 holes in 2019 using a water rig owned by the Tz government but could only get to 350M, the limit of the rigs.

If the Eyasi deal is still on the opportunity for the Tz govt to control an oil drilling rig must be tempting.

Atm you can get the entire company refurbished rig, equipment, licences £50M of seismic and drill results all for around £14M, bonkers.

The cashbox was paid for with 105M new shares, so nothing now to pay.

But at 1.5p 300M new shares just gets us around £4.5M, not much in this expensive drilling world.

Thinking about it the new company may not be to do with a cashbox, the last cashbox company was Jersey registered so you couldn't search against it, the new company is in plain sight.

My real concern is they may get involved with EHGOSF the European High Growth Opportunities Special Fund, it sounds great, it isn't.

Thats what happened at AAOG, they too had unsolicited offers of finance, they were simply vultures. The number of shares to be issued wasn't fixed, just the amount to be raised. Presented as a great deal as if the share price rose, you'd have fewer shares being issued and less dilution.

But the shares never did rise and holders were diluted to oblivion.

Then the remaining assets sold, and within a few months nothing left at all.

One for the AGM perhaps?

Along with all the other questions that are never answered, like why not tell us where the new pad is, the rationale for drilling there, has Camp Rukwa been abandoned, why has Tai-3 been abandoned, hardly anything left there, why has a new lay down area been set up, why has the rig been erected there when there is no drill pad, why has everything cost so much, why the Eyasi PURA deal, why the new licences were are not told about, why the secrecy, why are some of our old licences now in the hands of others, the status of the deal with Noble, why are our shares down 80% over 3 months, when Nobles are down around 25%, the list goes on...

I don't know may post more on that later, one of the requirements of the Tz govt was "Financial Capacity", do we have that anymore?

I'm thinking this is more a cashbox thing, adding to the 300M shares at the AGM.

600M @ 1p?

We'll find out soon enough.

But it all has a nasty whiff.

Maybe more on that whiff later....