Member Info for skittish

Excellent find!

The one saving grace is it is a subsidiary of the BVI company in which we all hold shares.

However does it suggest some corporate activity? Also accounts revealed another new company set up this time in Mauritius, I think.

Maybe they want to transfer something back to the UK?

Not saying what it might be.

Company set up on 20-11-2023. That day the shares fell from 5.6 to 3.3p.

The further falls to 1.7p are unwarranted IMHO on the information we are presented, but some people somewhere know otherwise.

There is something out there that we do not know.

Just a periodic update from Sentinel, as of yesterday 7-12-2023.

This is an overview of our part of Rukwa

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53383342207/in/dateposted-public/

It has rained, but not unduly so at Tai and around Itumbula. The ground around those areas is a little greener, but there are still quite large areas of brown. Some of the rivers are clearly carrying a deal of muddy water, indicating fairly heavy rains to the west and south of where we are.

Around 25% cloud cover yesterday, Tai-3 can be seen, but unfortunately Itumbula is covered in cloud. A few hours later and we likely would have got a good view of what was going on there..

This is the view of Tai-3, yesterday compared with 17-11-2023.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53384699600/in/dateposted-public/

The most obvious thing is that the pad is now almost entirely empty!

I had thought that the accommodation and support services were to remain, but it has all gone. Almost down to the last nut and bolt.

This is from a tweet of 28-9-2023 showing what was there, looking from the north to south, so "upsidedown" -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53372150871/in/dateposted-public/

All that remains is some pipes in the NW corner of the pad, something near the helipad, a structure in the SW corner and the laundry in the NE corner.

Comparison with 6 days ago (already posted) -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53370185582/in/dateposted-public/

And this is Itumbula -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53384486728/in/dateposted-public/

Just missing out on being able to tell us anything useful. I've marked where I think the new equipment collection area is located. Perversely it is next to a small lake with appears to be a spring and source of 10% helium. Perhaps they should just bag it and not bother with the drilling bit. The equipment collection area is around 1.4km from the new pad, we are told, but Camp Rukwa is only 8km away, so I don't really see the point.

Also something al little odd around the main helium springs, but may not be related to us - probably not in fact.

May post more over the weekend - something along the lines of we were worth 50% more than Noble a few months ago, now we are a fraction of their value, after both had roughly similar drill results and now both require money.

How can this be?

It may lead down a very deep and possibly very nasty rabbit hole, and quite frankly I'm not sure that I can really be bothered and put myself (and everyone else) through it all. I'm not sure where it may lead in any event.

Unless Saint Lorna very soon pulls out a very large, friendly and minted rabbit from a very small top hat, I have a feeling we may shortly get caught between a rock and an impressively hard place.

I wonder if it is cheap enough yet, for either Noble or D3 or the Pulsar/ Kindunda crew.

They'd be fools if they're not running a slide rule over it.

A good rig would be worth a few million straight away.

I'm expecting Christmas cheer all round.

A malaise is affecting this board, but it is unwarranted.

Facts speak otherwise, although they may not as yet come from the company.

She will tell us when things are ready.

Sentinel has come up a bit of a mixed bag today but it is not a case of what we can see but what we cannot see which is important.

This is the general situation over our part of Rukwa -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53371407494/in/dateposted-public/

Around 50% cloud.

Tai-3 is visible, just, but Itumbula covered in a thick bank of cloud.

This is Tai-3 on 3 dates L - R 22-8-23 (Maxar as a control, so we know what we are seeing), 12-11-23 and today, 2-12-23.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53370185582/in/dateposted-public/

There have been major changes to the pad over the last few weeks. The rig is disassembled and is no longer present. A couple of objects may remain just south of where the rig once was. Much of the equipment which was laid out in a belt across the middle of the pad has also disappeared as has around half the accommodation containers. Some part of the equipment may have been moved to the outer edges of the pad, but it is clear most of what was there a few weeks ago is no longer there.

What may be an accommodation container can be seen on the roadway leading south of the pad, and may be in the process of removal.

For context this is from a tweet on 28-9-2023 showing the pad and accommodation looking from the north to south, showing the accommodation and pad area -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53220036266/in/dateposted-public/

The soil around the pad remains as of today brown and parched, indicating very little rain has yet fallen at this location.

So we can see that much of the equipment which was at the pad in mid November is no longer there.

As we cannot see Itumbula at present due to cloud we cannot for sure say where it has been moved to.

But the company says the rig was to be removed to Itumbula-2 by now and as we can no longer see it at Tai-3 it is a reasonable assumption that it has indeed been moved there and is now either rigged up or is in the process of that. Much of the support equipment and around half the accommodation appears to have followed. Maybe the existence of the presently unused Itumbula-1 pad has facilitated that.

Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

Thus it is reasonable IMHO to conclude that Itumbula-2 is now host to the rig and much of the support equipment, even though we cannot actually see that is the case.

Next Sentinel pass 7th December 2023.

RJ, Sentinel is free, and is 'live' repeating every 5 days. That days image was taken earlier that day, the information is at the top of the image.

The high resolution Maxar service is paid for, and can be obtained most days, but to get the free Maxar images you have to wait for them to appear on Google Earth, which can take months to update.

Maybe she was confusing the completed Itumbula-1 pad with Itumbula-2?

Anyway I'm sure we'll get news soon, hopefully it will be the 'right' news.

RJ, yes in the interview LB said the civils were complete.

But two days later Sentinel clearly showed that the pad was at that time incomplete. And three days prior to the interview Sentinel showed that pad works were only just starting.

Maybe she got a bit ahead of herself.

" at least tweeting from the site with all the prep work that will necessarily be going on right now if they are about to drill, just like they were doing during Tai 3"

Ah ha, LW!

That is the key point.

You see with Tai-3 they weren't tweeting until the civils were well underway and much of the work actually almost complete.

Preparatory work for Tai-3 (with hindsight) could be seen on the ground via Sentinel around mid- May 23. I first posted a picture showing major civil works, roadway and pad construction, once their existence couldn't be ignored, on 12th June, with regular updates thereafter.

The company only announced that civils and pad construction were actually happening on 10th July, once the rig had entered the country.

The first tweet was 11th July - "The Company has already commenced the ground works for the construction of the Tai-C well pad, camp and access road at our He1 Rukwa site"

Tweets followed rapidly thereafter, but that tweet could have been issued at any time in the previous two months, and still have been true.

So Saint Lorna plays her cards close to her chest. Why she doesn't tweet now I don't know. On 18th November we could see the new Itumbula-2 pad under construction, pity it was cloudy on the last pass, but maybe Saturday's pass will show a completed pad . It may show more.

But it seems to me that she only tweets once something is almost complete, and then suggests that they have just started. Maybe it is a form of insurance, maybe it is under promising and over delivering, maybe it is just a bit of a game and she is playing with us - shareholders can play if they want to, I prefer to trust to Sentinel.

The same general situation exists in relation to Eyasi, although from the various clues one can make up various scenarios as to what is going on there. Evidence appears, things happen, we can see that - but Helium One remains silent.

So I think people can be forgiven for speculating what is going on. She is obviously waiting for something, and will no doubt tweet or RNS - "pad complete!"at some time.

What else she says is anyone's guess but Sentinel may provide a clue in around 48 hours.

Although it is becoming increasingly cloudy around our part of Rukwa, a good view could be had of Nobles Mbelele-2 pad today, looks like they may be derigging.

Tz is not a free democracy. Whilst the present President is somewhat more enlightened than her predecessor Tz scores 36% on the freedom index.

The same party has remained in power for 60 years, since independence.

Gogs, yes, hopefully few clouds.

IMHO we are the Tz governments 'strategic partner, so it is a JV effectively. What the terms are we don't know.

But we applied for 2000km sq of licences in February 23, 2D seismic by PURA over Summer, deal on joint exploration in October.

But silence from He1!

And there isn't much rain in our part of Rukwa.

People are missing several tricks.

Dates are key. So is silence. So is who is taking ownership of the deal in the Tz government. And they have nearly twice the acreage shown on the website, approved but not yet issued.

But the real trick is to find the helium or oil or gas prior to the funding running out.

Whichever way the funding arrives.

Unfortunately Sentinel has not come up trumps today.

Rukwa is a little more cloudy today, a mixture of low level showery type clouds, which don't obscure too much of Tai and Itumbula, and the wispy high level stuff, which is the real problem with seeing what is going on at ground level.

If it wasn't for the high level clouds then we would have got an excellent view of both Tai and Itumbula today.

This is a general overview from earlier today, with Tai and Itumbula marked. It obviously hasn't rained much in our area of interest as the soil remains brown over large areas.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53359922568/in/dateposted-public/

This is Itumbula, bottom image 5 days ago, top today

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53359706101/in/dateposted-public/

You can see the pads peeping through the clouds, but not much more. Itumbula-2 is larger than it was and appears to extend to the roadway. Hints that there may be equipment on the pad, but very difficult to be sure.

And this is Tai-3 earlier today, a little better.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53360161620/in/dateposted-public/

The dark splodge marks the well head area, it may be a little smaller than before, suggesting some equipment may have been removed. But even if all the equipment had been removed there would still be a more diffuse brown smudge at that location, but with the clouds you can't tell whether it is a dark splodge (equipment) or a brown smudge (equipment removed), so we are not much wiser, apart from being able to say "something" is going on.

With Itumbula-2 we know where the cellar is going to be, and I was hoping to see there either a creamy/white splodge - cellar concreted but still exposed - or a dark splodge - drill is on site and in the process of being erected over the cellar.

Unfortunately we can see neither, so are left to the tender mercies of Saint Lorna and the twittersphere.

Next Sentinel pass 2-12-2023, but it will become increasingly cloudy.

Just by way of a bit of context, this a weather overview of Rukwa on 22/25-11-2023.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53357218179/in/dateposted-public/

Tai, Itumbula and Mbelele are marked.

Itumbula and Mbelele were cloud free. Tai had some cloud. Obviously it does rain in Rukwa, and there may be floods in other parts of East Africa, but at present the weather is fairly benign in our part of the world. And just because there are clouds doesn't mean it is raining there.

There has actually been much more rain recently around Mbelele than there has around the He1 drilling sites, and it doesn't appear to have impeded their drilling, so far as we are aware. You can see Mbelele getting greener over the last few weeks in the images I've already posted, and some of the nearby rivers are carrying much more water than before.

If all the drilling equipment is moved successfully to Itumbula-2, then Camp Rukwa is only 8km away by road, so the rig and other equipment could be held there if necessary. There are also no bridges or rivers between Camp Rukwa and Itumbula.

And the area is generally pretty flat with Camp Rukwa at 880M, both Itumbula and Tai are at 843M, on a gentle slope falling away to the North.

But Tai and Itumbula, remain quite dry, as evidenced by the soil colour remaining fairly brown.

This is the prior month, end of October (20/25-10-2023) , still quite a bit of cloud then, and that was the dry season.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53357108713/in/dateposted-public/

Obviously it is going to rain, and between January and April Sentinel will effectively be useless due to cloud cover.

But the rain at present appears fairly limited, especially in our part of Rukwa.

Forgot image - doh!

https://flic.kr/p/2phMdMq

Noble's rig remains above wellhead as of this morning.

Possibly at TD and sampling.

AGM 28-11-23, can they recover gaseous helium?

If they can proof of concept?

They will also be drilling at 14-12-23, so there will be sufficient trading volume to get it away.

Oh dear!! Someone losing money on a share?

Novelty.

Anyway.

My rationale for holding He1 - FWIW, DYOR, IMHO - this is high risk, high reward.

There is a real possibility of total failure of the project - some might say probability - the company is drilling in virgin territory for a pure helium source, something which hasn't been done before anywhere. They've raised circa £50m over the last several years, now worth c£25M.

If they find the gas big success. If not, well...

I still think my Eyasi '24 - oil/gas/helium JV with MOM/PURA/TPDC theory is in with a chance, and that is part of my rationale for remaining invested, apart from the chance/possibility of a discovery at Tai/Itumbula.

Theory has already been aired at length on 18-11-2023, so ago so won't go into the whole thing here.

No one pointed out the possible major defect with the theory - that I was conflating the "Strategic Partnership" referred to in the February 2019 Tz Government Eyasi-Wembere presentation with the "Cooperation and Joint Development" Agreement to develop Eyasi-Wembere signed by He1 and MOM/PURA/TPDC on 13th October 2023.

But they sound pretty similar to me.

But what intrigues me and makes me believe it might be a go-er is that He1 have never said

a) they've applied for 2000sq km of new licences at Eyasi and been approved (almost doubling the licence area),

b) done a deal with the Tz government to look for oil and gas at Eyasi

both of which we know to be true.

It also fits in with buying the rig (why, it isn't ever going to be a second revenue source unless you want to risk bankruptcy?) , DM's departure, and I believe now, haste to get on with drilling at Itumbula/Tai in December and January 23/4.

Of course getting a discovery at I/T would boost the shares allowing decent funds to be raised and I'd say was really essential to getting the Eyasi project off the ground.

But what if they couldn't get that discovery? Could they raise just on the back of a JV with the Tz Govt and oil/gas/helium at Eyasi? Might be a hard sell. But we would put in the rig, can't see the Tz Govt putting in a load of cash, but maybe they would put something in/pay for services?

But who would be taking the bigger risk, us or them, or is the "secret" Eyasi deal a desperate move by the Tz Govt or a big vote of confidence in He1?

Tai results were disappointing, but maybe the Tz Govt also thinks the helium is there.

Maybe.

Eyasi '24 - it won't wait.

As a few people have obviously not seen the previous Sentinel image before, I thought I'd post this.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53347715327/in/dateposted-public/

which gives a better indication of the local geography.

I've actually names the well site Itumbula-3, as I had another candidate, but this will likely actually be Itumbula-2.

The cellar is actually towards the lower end of the field below the curser, and falls directly on a 2021 seismic line.

That is how you know the location is correct, and the seismic lines are lined up correctly. The latest Sentinel image shows that the two small trees in the field have disappeared, as have the clump of trees marking the accessway from the track into the field. The track has now been surfaced and provides access to the drill site. They appear to have moved closer into the fault system, and there are extensive helium emission seeps around 1km to the NW of the pad area.

Let's hope they have got it right this time.