Yes, noticeable that this is getting knocked and on twitter also with misleading "information".
I have no doubt that the ROSE matter will however, eventually prove to be quite interesting. Noticeable that DS and JB were brought in there by "shareholders" and not the current management team.
Quite happy that this is showing a steady rise on no news, rather than the spikes of recent past.
News can't be too far away as the technical meeting, and knowledge of the Djeno oil is about 3 weeks old now.
There has been a deluge of selling for months.
Probably the 92 million issued at 8p in June 2018, and 60 million issued at 10p in January 2019.
Some will have gone to a good home (Miton) but many will have been sold/churned.
As recent placings constitute around 57% of the shares in issue, and around 80% of the free float, this IMHO has artificially depressed the share price.
If indeed this has now cleared (we'll know early next week) then the shares will trade at a more realistic level.
I don't think it is a case that no one was willing to pay more than 12p, but simply there was no need to pay more than 12p. Every day, for months, any significant buying was met by a torrent of large selling activity.
Activity towards the end of last week suggested that the apparently limitless selling may have come to an end.
We will know, I guess, by the end of next week for sure, maybe sooner.
Hang on a mo!
mrs skittish is also hoping to get in early doors, so we don't want the sp racing away to the heady heights of 12p - 13p, too quickly.
More to the point if indeed the mass overhang and sale of placing shares over the last 12 month has now come to an end, as indeed maybe the case, to what level will AAOG shares naturally rise to reflect their intrinsic value.
My bet would be 20p to 25p, without news.
We could indeed, finally, be in for an interesting week.
That wasn't the first tranche - that was a one off payment.
tranche definition: 1. one of several parts of a financial arrangement, payment, amount, etc.: 2. one of the parts into which a particular financial arrangement, .."
They paid that and were then going to propose a short term repayment plan.
"SNPC has agreed to pay monthly instalments, commencing this month, of US$600,000. These payments will be applied in settlement of monies owed by SNPC to the Company. Before any payment this month, the sum owed amounts to approximately US$9.5m and mostly relates to SNPC's share of the costs of drilling TLP-103C. SNPC has undertaken to send the Company a signed payment schedule confirming the payment plan"
So the first tranche of that repayment plan was $600,000, and it presumably hasn't been received.
You may think i'm splitting hairs (I'm not), and in fact at the end of the day I don't think it actually makes any difference long term, as it appears we have a fantastic asset. However I simply think that SNPC are unreliable - although maybe not so on their terms.
Still looking forwards to next week.
Yes there do appear to be a couple of mixed messages floating around - not necessarily from the company itself but from those close to them.
Maybe it is dependent upon SNPC cooperating.
At $70 oil we have around $100,000+ pcm coming in, add that to the $600,000 pcm from SNPC and that is a nice little income, which will last to mid 2020.
The problem is that SNPC aren't very reliable, and despite their promises, I suspect that the first tranche hasn't actually been received despite the RNS a week last Friday.
I'm sure DS would like to produce immediately from the Djeno, if he could, but maybe a TLP-103C ST would only be possible if SNPC kept up regular payments.
DS has mentioned that the big prize is the Djeno, but he also says that most important of all is turning the oil into cash, and you can't do that if it stays in the ground. And a TLP-103C ST would probably put back decent production to the end of the year at least.
And whilst he may wish to "optimise" production in reality it may not be possible, at least not at this stage due to monetary constraints.
In any event TLPM-1 in 1994 flow tested at 2170bpd from R2 and TLP-101ST in 2007 produced at an initial 942bpd from R2.
It is noticeable that both these drills occurred shortly before a collapse in crude prices with probably precluded significant further developments of the field. It was the collapse of crude prices in 2015 which probably finally forced Sister Holdings SAS into the waiting arms of DS.
I'm sure DS is probably mindful of this also.
So it should be possible to get around 1,000bpd initially from R2 alone, even without the Mengo. Co mingling any you're up to 1,500bpd+ with not too much risk.
I think DS is focused on monetisation above all else, and always presents AAOG as a lower risk play than your average small E&P company, so that, to me, means sticking with the plan for early production.
As to 101/102 work overs the Admission document say the installation of the already purchased pump for 101 needs a rig - cost $1.5M, but only $200K if a rig is already available. 102 costs for well stimulation were estimated at around $500k assuming no rig was needed. Work on 102 appears to have been put to one side whilst they drilled 103C.
Next week should be very interesting in terms of the share price.
There are around 239 million shares in issue with around 190 million shares in free float, but of those 60 million were issued in January 2019 and 92 million in June 2018.
Maybe that's where all the selling has come from. Looks like it has now finally finished and we could be about to find out our true price level at last.
There could be a mad dash for people with ISA money Monday AM, so we might get a fairly strong close here today in anticipation.
Hopefully into the teens next week and then we start getting a bit of news flow........
Interesting that people on twitter are being deliberately misleading - saying our super dooper API 43 oil is "heavy oil" and therefore cheaper.
Also asking why no flow rates - well because the oil was squeezing past a concrete plug, so you were not going to get an accurate flow rate.
What could their motive possibly be for saying such things???
I'm no expert (believe me) however in the RNS's issued as the well progressed AAOG referred to cementing the well at each stage as they went deeper.
Thus any reservoirs of oil (R1, R2, Mengo etc) were behind the cement casing and could not enter the well bore as AAOG drilled deeper.
It would appear that after finding the Djeno in the shale layer at 2400 metres, they completed the well at 2700 metres. They didn't expect to actually find the Djeno oil at that level, as the sandstone layer was another 100 metres deeper.
I'm assuming the bottom of the well wasn't cemented but they installed a concrete plug a little higher up to isolate the well from the surrounding reservoirs and isolate the Mengo from the newly found shale Djeno.
Following completion of the drill it would appear that pressure unexpectedly began to rise in the well, it shouldn't have as the well was sealed on the sides by the concrete casing and at the bottom by the concrete plug.
When they opened the well to release the pressure, oil from the Djeno shale flowed out - indicating that the oil pressure below in the Djeno had breached the concrete plug and had entered the well.
DS doesn't seem to think that it is a problem and sees it as good news.
As for completing the well they use a perforation gun to punch open the casing at the desired intervals in this case R2 and Mengo .
As always see YouTube
I note a 402K buy went through at 4.28 at 10.69p. As this was the highest price paid today, and significantly higher than other trades so we may get off to a good start tomorrow.
I agree that we should have an exciting month ahead.
However, it isn't the Djeno Sands flowing freely to the surface. Our 12 metre oil column is in shale. The sands are prognosed to be around 100 metres below where we stopped drilling. Presumably oil flows more freely in sand than in shale - no doubt someone will correct me if wrong.
So when we do hit the real Djeno target that oil should be even more free flowing than the oil which has now come to the surface.
As to the $600K per month coming in I'm not actually convinced until it actually arrives. You can argue for ever as to whether SNPC have actually got the money or not or are just playing hardball.
In any event we do definitely have around $100,000 per month from Tilapia and now the rig has disappeared our running costs should be fairly minimal.
I've now found out a bit more about the area I call "Complex 1" next door to us. It is indeed a mud and tailings processing facility (although it does deal with some other industrial waste). However it isn't Chinese, it is French!
It was set up around 2009 and has expanded since.
Quite why it was set up next to us I'm not quite sure, as in 2009 there was nothing for miles around except for Tilapia.
The then nearest oil facility, except for us, is at Pointe Indienne around 12km south, the refinery is 17km away and Eni's fields 20km to the east. Anyway since 2009 it has expended and has recently installed another 16 eco friendly mud processing pits.
I'm also pretty sure CNOOC is producing, albeit at modest rates from pad "N", and it appears last year there may have been some form of unintended release of fluids at "BN" - I'll post some photo's when I get a chance.
Sells have been generally matching buys for over two months now to keep us in the 9.4 - 10.7p range.
At the moment it is 269K reported buys to 268K reported sells. Pretty amazing stuff.
We do seem however to be gradually edging up to the top of the price range, with the last couple of weeks showing the lows in the price gradually moving upwards.
Quite what happens when we do eventually break out of this range (whether it be up or down) who knows - but whatever way it goes it should be very interesting.
My feeling is upwards, by the way, and it could be quite a ride.
TLP 101 - they just cleaned the lines and production went for 35 to 53 or thereabouts - not exactly loads of work there.
TLP 102 - they never installed the pump, and are now considering using it as a water injection well - so again not exactly loads of work there either.
Wells producing from just the R2 at Tilapia have got circa 1,000bpd, so getting an additional 500bpd from the Mengo won't be too much of a problem.
TLP 101/TLP 102 - That is because they never carried out any work to increase the flow.
TLPM-1 flowed at an initial 1886bpd from R2 in 1994 and TLP 101ST flowed at an initial 942bpd from R2 in 2006.
The only well to encounter the Mengo prior to TLP103C was TLP 101V in 2006 and the prospectus is not clear as to whether this was ever flow tested - presumably not. TLP 101V was the deepest well prior to TLP 103C.
TLP 102 encountered the R2 but didn't flow probably due to formation damage.
Having encountered 56 metres of oil thickness in TLP-103C I'm sure that some of it will flow.
No well previously has ever encountered so much oil here R1, R2, R3, Mengo, Djeno.
I'm sure an initial 1,500bpd won't be too much of a problem.
The 3 month chart is indeed something to behold.
Time to chillax........otherwise we'll all drive ourselves stir crazy.
So.......Greetings from Bas Kouilou, which is the small port on the estuary about 5 miles to the NW of Tilapia.
Hopefully, we, and they will be a bit better off in the not too distant future.
Looks interesting. Although it was written in 2014 I suspect the conclusion still holds true-
"Additionally, discoveries from adjacent Gabon and Angola can be considered as analogues and can
provide further information about the hydrocarbon potential in the less-explored Republic of Congo."
Eni made a big discovery in Angola just last month, so I suspect there could be much more to come from Congo.
Lets hope we're sitting on top of some of it!