Member Info for skittish

Yes, I'm making a presumption - I may be incorrect in doing so.

Board members who left since 8-2-2023 are

David Minchin 8-2-23

Ian Stalker 31-7-23

Robin Birchall 3-8-23

Board members who have remained

Russel Swartz

James Smith

Nigel Friend

Sarah Cope

So that would give a finer 4-3 split (possibly) on the strategy. since 8-2-23 Lorna B has joined as has Graham Jacobs on 18-9-23.

Reasons for remaining silent on the new strategy, maybe

1. Not wanting to confuse shareholders/the market - going after a new target prior to proving Rukwa

2. Not wanting to imply that Rukwa was no good prior to proving it up

3. Maybe already too deeply committed to Rukwa, and couldn't change that in 2023.

4. Maybe wanting a firm commitment from the Tz government regarding the JV , which they got on 13th October 2023, prior to saying they were farming out/JVing Rukwa (13th October was when the rig was fixed, likely a coincidence).

The success of this of course all hinges on a good/excellent result at Tai-3, which enables them to take a back seat on that.

To me Tai-3 was the safe option, most likely to get a discovery, Itumbula-1 the bonus drilled close to a 10.6% He source, to beef everything up.

Maybe they'll just have Tai-3 to go on, possibly supported by whatever Noble find?

What it means - if I'm right of course - is that on 8-2-2023 He1 had a choice.

1. Stay at Rukwa and continue to drill and develop that and hopefully become a helium producer.

2. Become a strategic Partner of the Tanzanian Government looking for oil/gas/helium at Eyasi/Wembere

DM, and maybe one other favoured 1, the rest and LB, 2.

2 won out and DM went.

I don't think they can do both, as presumably the Tz government would want full commitment, and He1 is not big enough to give that and do Rukwa at the same time.

So prove up Rukwa, CPR, farm out or JV (He1 would not be the operator), and then drill Eyasi in 2024.

So it was a question simply put of staying at Rukwa or going elsewhere - they chose to go.

But none of this has been communicated, not the new licences, not the Eyasi JV agreement, not the 2D over our licence areas, nothing.

It is probably/possibly a higher risk strategy, possibly more expensive (depends what Tz put in) but the rewards possibly much greater long term, as it fulfils a project the Tz government has been trying to get off the ground for 20 years.

Part 5

Is there oil at Eyasi/Wembere? Well the Tanzanians certainly seem to think so.

https://go.gale.com/ps/i.do?id=GALE%7CA709165709&sid=sitemap&v=2.1&it=r&p=AONE&sw=w&userGroupName=anon%7Ec142cad3&aty=open-web-entry

https://extractives-baraza.com/tanzania-to-strike-huge-oil-deposits-in-wembere-eyasi-basin/

And success there would fulfil a long term strategic aim of the Tanzanian government to be a low cost on-shore oil/gas producer, which is also important for regional rivalry – won't go into that here.

And just to finish off this is the real picture with regard to Eyasi/Wembere and the licences, rather than what is actually on the Helium One website.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53315420152/in/dateposted-public/

It shows the nine licence applications, and the dates when theywere applied for. Noble also has five licences here. Rukwa Helium (T) Limited is almost certainly a front for another company (interesting that it is called Rukwa, when its only licence is at Eyasi, but I haven't been able to find the parent company), Universal Metals is a combined oil and helium licence, not sure about the other two, they hold licences also elsewhere in Tanzania.

Some of this is a little speculative, but I think I've backed it up to the maximum extent with links and documents, and it does I feel explain some of the strange goings on at He1 and with its licences during 2023.

As ever there will be much more to the story than is presented here, and LB is taking a risk, a risk that DM was perhaps not prepared to take. Time will tell whether he was right or not.

But maybe the prize was too great for the other directors at He1 to ignore.

Part 4

If you look at the two resume's of DM and LB they are both geologists but quite different.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53331825681/in/dateposted-public/

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53331800256/in/dateposted-public/

DM is a minerals man, digging rocks out of the ground. LB is oil and gas gal and she spent 5 years at Tullow in her formative years drilling in the East African Rift for oil and gas, just a few hundred km from Eyasi.

It seems to me DM wished to stay at Rukwa, LB backed by IS wanted to branch out go back to the EAR for the oil and gas, and helium.

But the Tanzanian government wanted big commitment. They've been trying to get Eyasi/Wembere off the ground since the mid 2000's, but various troubles, disputes etc have precluded that.

He1 had to punch above its weight and therefore had to buy a rig, something DM may also have been opposed to.

IS (or LB) won out over the dispute, DM went and LB filed her first applications that day, and subsequently bought the Predator 220, which was quite an extraordinary thing for a small cash strapped explorer to do. But there would be plenty of work for it.

Eyasi/Wembere won out, over Rukwa.

The die was cast, the Rubicon crossed and He1 changed direction.

Helium One would become the strategic partner for the Tanzanian government, TPDC and PURA.

But LB and He1 never said a thing.

On 13th October 2023 He1 and TPDC/PURA and The Ministry signed a JV agreement to jointly develop Eyasi/Wembere, cementing the long term relationship and He1 stepped up a gear (or two), from being minor explorer to strategic partner of the government.

https://www.reddit.com/r/HeliumOne/comments/17a1ac0/just_an_fyi_the_government_of_tanzania_through/

Point 4 of the 2019 presentation – tick.

So if they've gone with Eyasi/Wembere what of Rukwa?

Good question. No easy answers but I guess the plan had to be prove it up, 2 wells, CPR, then farm out or JV. Provided the rig performed and helium was found. We will likely know the results of that shortly. It appears they've only got one well from which to do the CPR, is that enough to get a good deal?

Well maybe.

Time will tell.

Will this cost? Probably.

I may have to do this in sections as LSE keeps crashing!

The question is really where to begin.

I'll start with the disclaimers – DYOR, AIMHO.

No one should buy shares on the basis of a BB post, and the question of why the shares remain at around 6p also needs to be addressed. Some may disagree with the conclusions of this post, there may be other interpretations, as ever we only see shadows etc. etc.

Parts of this narrative have already been put on here piecemeal, but this pulls all the strands together, such as they are at present in a full narrative.

So - onto this weekends rabbit hole, this may be more complex than usual, care is required negotiating the hairpin bends, don't get lost, and stay right behind me.

This is the door to the rabbit hole, from He1's own website, the Eyasi project, showing 3 licences

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53315822486/in/dateposted-public/

It is firmly locked, you can see the door but cannot peer behind it.

This is the key to the door

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53336848112/in/dateposted-public/

This is taken from here

http://bc1691c19a8acd6f68a6-57b46ab9413fd06c4bed6b1cec5112fb.r15.cf1.rackcdn.com/FP%2025.02.2019%20Lucas%20Mahushi%20Luhaga_TPDC.pdf

The key part of this slide is entitled “The Plan” -

1. Detailed geological etc studies,

2. Drill strategraphic boreholes

3. Plan 2D seismic

4. Sourcing of a strategic partner for drilling and future work

We'll come back to this plan later on, because subsequent events appear to confirm that it remains the current plan with regard to the Eysi-Wembere Project, and these points are in chronological order.

So now we go for a bit of a time travelling and fast forward almost exactly 4 years to 7th February 2023, which we know is the day before DM's dismissal/resignation, sacking, whatever – accounts show he got around £120K in compensation, lieu of notice etc, so there was some form of deal but he was most decidedly (IMHO) given the boot. But I make no judgement on his judgement, he may turn out to have been right, we don't yet know.

That day Hotspur Geothermal put this on their website

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53337953623/in/dateposted-public/

Cont/...

Part 2

A Predator 220 was available for export presumably after the dispute had been settled (it is our Predator 220, by the way), so maybe they had already approached DM and he said he didn't want it, or he, and others at He1 were at least aware of it, and he still didn't want it.

We now know that DM left the company the following day, 8th February 2023, and Saint Lorna was appointed in his place, both geologists but with somewhat different backgrounds.

Now something else happened on 8th February 2023.

Helium One applied for a new helium licence in the Eyasi- Wembere basin.

We know that because the application is here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53338199755/in/dateposted-public/

In fact Helium One didn't apply for just one licence that day it applied for three, and over the next week it applied for six more.

The licences, areas covered and the dates of applications are here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53315420152/in/dateposted-public/

I can't remember the exact area but it is around 1800 sq km to add to our existing 800 sq km.

So it looks to me as if LB had those first three applications ready to go on her desk, and it was DM who was against them being filed, and against the leasing/buying of the Predator 220.

So massive bust up on 8th February, DM leaves with a £120K sweetener, LB appointed the same day and files her first three applications that very day.

So why have a massive bust up and why would DM risk, and lose his job over the filing of a few licence applications?

Well this was about much more than a few licence applications. This was about the future direction and strategy of the company. LB wasn't on the Board at that time, but presumably her backer was IS.

Remember that second image?

“The Plan” from 2019 for Eysi-Wembere

1. Detailed geological etc studies,

2. Drill strategraphic boreholes

3. Plan 2D seismic

4. Sourcing of a strategic partner for drilling and future work

Lets see where it was up to by 8th February 2023.

By 2019 they had already conducted an extensive AGG survey over the area. Between 2021/23 He1 condiucted an MSS survey, RPT survey, ERT survey and surface sampling – albeit this may have been confined to the areas of He1's original licences.

Part 3

Point 1 - tick

Three boreholes were drilled in 2019, Wembere-1 reached 370 metres, the others were probably a little shallower. Locations of the boreholes is here – named Wembere 1, 2 and 3 (but also known as Kining'inila-1, Luono-1 and Nyalanja-1/1A ).

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53321429450/in/dateposted-public/

The cores extracted showed the presence of hydrocarbons.

Point 2 - tick

The TPDC made requests for the tenders for 2D seismic on 21st April 2022. Bids were to be completed by 20th June 2022. The 2D seismic over Eyasi Wembere was actually carried out between July and 10th October 2023

https://www.pura.go.tz/news/2d-oil-exploration-project-in-eyasi-wembere-completed

But where was it carried out?

Well helpfully some geologists published a paper on 20th March 2023 entitled “2D seismic design on frontier basins using potential field data, a case study in the south of the eastern arm of the East African Rift System” which just happened to be over the Eyasi Wembere basin.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2478.13352?af=R

Linked to that article is a theoretical 2D survey plan, which I'd wager is “the” plan, here

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53273883631/in/dateposted-public/

link that survey area to He1's new licence area, and the wells drilled and you get this.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53315769617/in/dateposted-public/

So all of He1's new licence area has been the subject of a 2D survey.

So at 8th February 2023 I'd wager that the Board of He1 knew that of the 2019 Eyasi presentation points 1 and 2 had been completed, point 3 was being completed and that the Tanzanian government, TPDC and PUMA were looking for a strategic partner in order to get some wells drilled.

He1 it would appear had the offer of a rig, maybe to buy, maybe to lease, a Predator 220.

Could He1, at that point in its development take on two significant projects at the same time?

Almost certainly not (IMHO) – it would have to decide ultimately between helium at Rukwa or oil/gas/helium at Eyasi/Wembere.

There may be a brief interlude for parts 4 and 5 as LSE keeps crashing...

The AGM resolutions are on the He1 website, and have been for several days.

I hope to update over the weekend, just finishing off another project now.

Somethings have been mentioned previously, and put on flikr, but I think I'm now able to put it all together and create a coherent narrative.

Parts are necessarily speculative, but I think each stage will be backed up with evidence, so everyone can make up their own minds.

There is certainly more going on than in the RNS's, but it is left to third parties to report the news not He1.

Saint Lorna's style is Sphinx-like, there should be little doubt about that now, no more breathless commentaries...

Wyndrum, yes a loan would be great! Or a JV to offload some responsibility for Rukwa.

I believe DM was offered a great prize at the beginning of the year, but he wouldn't take it, wishing to stay in Rukwa.

LB, and IS and a majority of the board disagreed, so he had to go.

It did involve the rig business but that was just a part of it.

This was a strategic disagreement, not just about being unable to get a rig.

LB I believe is charting a new course, I'll explain over weekend, (helped by another rabbit hole, no time now) with what I think is fairly compelling evidence. If I'm correct we shouldn't have too much to worry about share price wise in 2024, and there will be a much bigger "buzz" around this company than at present.

We'll be moving up to the next level, and LB will be returning to her roots.

Mmm, I think in He1's case getting government approval/permissions wouldn't be too much of a problem.

If we are still at Rukwa as operator in 2024, then that would be four seasons there, almost painful.

It is painful as a shareholder.

There are other interesting places to go, and some I'd suggest much more in keeping with Saint Lorna's skill set, and dare I say it, maybe personal preferences.

Owning our own rig would then really make sense.

Question is, if there were only results for one well, even if very good, would that be enough to swing it for a JV on decent terms, and we could then put Rukwa on autopilot?

Just a few very brief points/observations and question -

1. If the company gets a good/excellent result at Tai-3, and is able to issue a revised CPR, do people think that may be sufficient for the company to do a JV or farm out Rukwa or a part of it in 2024?

Ideally she wanted results from two wells, looks like she'll have to do with one now, so any CPR might not be quite as good as she'd hoped. A strike by Noble may assist?

2. The company is seeking authority to issue up to 315M new shares (a slightly differently worded resolution than previous years, on 14-3- 2022 was 200M, on 15-2-2023 was 273M - always around 33%). They have usually by hook or by crook gone almost up to the limit. 315M would give them £18.9M @ 6p, but hopefully they'll be able to raise higher. 12p and they'd get nearly £40M, 18p £60M, so on and so forth.

That the AGM is brought forward yet again suggests that they are wanting flexibility to raise cash. Not necessarily bad, depends what it is for.

3. They seem a "bit vague" with regard to the future drilling programmes, merely referring to "future wells" and "updated forward operational programme". Not even Itumbula-1 mentioned, nor Rukwa for that matter.

4. They (He1) still seem to want to keep the cost of the Epiroc 220 under wraps, same at Hotspur, their accounts also cut off at 30-6-2023, and they say something along the lines of no material activity since year end, even though they sold their only significant asset just 10 days after year end. Cluff the same. We have bought it - that is the only way to interpret the 10-7-2023 RNS, but there appears something about the deal they want to keep under wraps.

But I would be interested to know what people think about point 1.

Eyes on the prize, and it ain't anywhere near Rukwa.

Rukwa is important but there are bigger fish to fry.

Dai, I will show in a later post (may be a number of days) that there is no question that he was sacked on 8-2-23.

The company began to change course the minute he went. There must have been an absolutely massive bust up over strategy.

There are a few hints on my Flikr feed of where a future post may go, but I'm still gathering the evidence.

But the company is like a super tanker, you can hardly see it turning at first, but there is no question we are setting a new course.

But much of the new strategy relies upon this new rig being successful and reliable. Provided it is then it will enable the Tz government to achieve a goal which it has been trying to accomplish for almost 20 years.

The helium is important but not the only show in town.

They will take the time to get this drill right, even if it means sacrificing Itumbula-1 for 2023.

IMHO there is much riding on this drill, more than just finding helium at Tai-3.

I believe that on 8-2-23 the direction and strategy of the company changed, broadened, and this goes some way to explaining certain recent events such as the dismissal of DM, the purchase of the rig, obtaining new acreage and deals with the Tz government.

But LB owns this new strategy, even though it may not yet be full explained to shareholders, and she needs a success, not only for shareholders but also for watching third parties.

She will do everything in her power to make sure this comes right, even at the short term expense of shareholders.

There is a longer term game afoot.

Interesting share price action today, if you are a trader (and get the timing right) there is money to be made.

From the price action yesterday it looks like someone knew of issues around mid-day.

Muted reaction today considering, but maybe someone knows more than we do.

Anyway, Noble are rigging up at Mbelele-2 -

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53322876939/in/dateposted-public/

https://www.flickr.com/photos/194934344@N06/53321659987/in/dateposted-public/

What are the chances of a joint press conference to announce results of all 3 wells?

Only joking...;-}

But maybe not absolutely zero?

Should be addressed to blissful, sorry, its late...

But actually addressed to everybody.

GG, yes the Helium Super Summit is a bit of clue.

Lorna doesn't give much away, that is also a clue. Some seemed to think she had remained a while in Rukwa, I suspect she hasn't been there for weeks, and now she pops up in Houston, 30-10 to 1-11

He1 didn't have a stand, but both Noble and Pulsar did, Noble were a sponsor.

So the "Big 3" Rukwa players were all in the same room. Wonder how the conversations went?

LB to JW "How's you drill going?"

JW to LB "How's YOUR drill going?"

T A-J to both "We're too smart to pay for a drill, but do tell how both your drills are going"

Anyway after the summit, JW posted a tweet on 2-11 and just happened to mention that he was in "LA".

Which company has their HQ in Hawthorne, California? Hawthorne being a district in LA. Name dropper.

And if you look carefully at the 11-2020 AD you can discern that senior management of Pulsar have almost certainly exercised warrants in He1 during October 2023. So T A-J asking questions could be pertinent.

And "The Citizen" Tanzania has picked up on Tai-3 -

https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/business/helium-one-global-uncovers-promising-helium-results-in-tai-3-well-in-tanzania-4427196

The article leans heavily on the RNS, but adds this bit at the end "Helium One is poised to become a global strategic player in resolving the global helium supply shortage."

And owning our own rig allows He1 "To take control of its drilling destiny in Tanzania".

I think someone has been talking.

Having said that both Noble and He1 whilst being the most active players in Tanzania are fairly small in helium licence acreage when compared to some other slightly mysterious companies, which appear to have swept up significant areas of helium licences and then done....nothing.

In fact those licences, have been applied for around 7 years ago (some more recently), approved and then not issued. They appear to be in limboland, but for the applicant the advantages of limboland is that there are no annual licence fees and no work requirement. No doubt if matters go the right way for He1 and Noble those licences will then be issued to the applicants, will then be more valuable than snow and saleable.

In fact the applicants seem to have a bit of a habit of following He1 and Noble around, in something of an elaborate and large scale game of chess.

Itumbula-1 does look in doubt now, maybe we don't need it.

And whilst Saint Lorna gives very little away, He1 has been very active in places other than Rukwa, but never says.

Another clue that Saint Lorna being Sphynx-like doesn't mean that there is nothing to say.

I suspect in 2024 our rig will be Eyasi bound, and will be looking for much more than helium.

Helium is great, but the market really ain't that big. Other commodities do have BIG markets.

Another rabbit hole for the weekend, perhaps.

There is a myth that Noble have done all 3D.

It is a myth.

Mbelele-1 has only 2D.

Mbelele-2 has 3D.

But most of their 3D is on the other side of the lake where it is $100M to drill a well.

Many other players circling about also, some with more acres than us, but perhaps not as advanced.

Yellow are granted licences, clear are applications, likely to be approved.

But some applications sit for years, in limbo, seemingly waiting.

Noble dominate North Rukwa but we now dominate Eyasi.

Eyasi is interesting, with many 'independent' players, sitting up in the gods, waiting to see what action occurs.