Open Orphan pharma spin-out Poolbeg Pharma present at London South East's October live event. Watch the full video here.
Just thinking out loud here - this is what Mr Beardmore said on 30th June 2021 at the AGM
" I am particularly excited that the Company can explore opportunities which will allow it to invest in special purpose acquisition companies ("SPACs"); principally SPACs whose shares are traded on, or are intended to be traded on, the Standard Segment of the Main Market or AIM. We are reviewing several such opportunities and I look forward to updating shareholders on these initiatives."
Clearly Alteration Earth plc (incorporated 18-08-2021) is the first of those SPAC's (although we have 3 other SPAC's 'on ice' as it were - nothing happening with them since January 2021 creation).
But ALTE is to list by 31-12-2021, otherwise the deal is off. Coincidentally the BMN Enerox deal also appears to require completion by 31-12-2021 as MUST needs to relist by that date (and now appears to be running out of time if it is to issue a prospectus and have a GM).
Of course if MUST don't relist then we get shares in BMN as an alternative, unless the Garnett Commerce legal action has derailed the whole deal, in which case the entire deal would presumably be off and PRIM's investment returned to it.
Of course COP26 is taking place in Glasgow early next month and Gneiss Energy appears to be a largely Scottish operation (another coincidence?) - maybe some announcement due.
ALTE director Andrew Coull of Gneiss, appointed 19-10-2021, appears to have the ability to source projects and finance them.
Rupert Howard Milton Horner, appointed 28-09-2021, may also have access to finance and HNW individuals. He for may years was associated with the Thompson family, who founded Hillsdown Holdings which later became Premier Foods plc. He actually resigned from Thompson Investments on 1-10-2021.
He also had a directorship at Mesh Holdings resigning in June 2019, just after it changed its articles and set course to complete the supposed "deal of the century" to buy Sentiance and list on Nasdaq- if the ASLR and AAA BB's are to be believed - and immediately prior to the Chris Akers and Robert Bonnier crew becoming involved.
So there are some interesting people on board here.
If listing goes ahead PRIM will own 28% of ALTE. RL 20%, SH 2% and MB 2% for a total of 52%. The other 48% will presumably be owned by Gneiss, AC and RHMH. PRIM will have a majority of the shares and thus be able to control the company.
Obviously there will be likely dilution on any initial deal, but is ALTE in addition to Enerox or as an alternative as the parties concerned now know that the Garnett legal action is enough to derail the Enerox deal going ahead?
Or do PRIM intend to run the MUST/Enerox deal and the ALTE deal side by side?
Clearly a slow burn here, but it could be the genesis of something very interesting.
I had thought that the RNS regarding ALTE was fairly uninspiring -
Primorus Investments plc (AIM: PRIM) is pleased to announce it has agreed to invest up to £350,000 in Alteration Earth PLC ("ALTE"), a recently established special purpose acquisition company ("SPAC") (the "Investment").
however on further examination the links with Gneiss appear quite interesting.
Andrew Coull was appointed a director of ALTE on 19-10-2021, which appears to have prompted the RNS today.
AC is head of renewables at Gneiss
and he, ex Barclays and Morgan Stanley appears fairly well connected.
Just saying my notes from the TMS/DM interview appeared to indicate to me the timetable which I posted on 3/10/21. I haven't listened to it since, but "my" timetable drawn from the interview appears to fit that in the RNS fairly accurately.
My main reason for posting as I did on that date was that I was surprised so few had posted a reaction to that interview, as it appeared to contain quite a bit of new information regarding the timetable going forwards, and so few commented on that.
Obviously those who posted that we could be drilling "now" were looking at matters with rose tinted glasses, as there was noting to suggest that was the case.
"My timetable" was my realistic assessment of the likely route going forwards based on the information given in the interview.
I believe He1 will ultimately be a very rewarding share, albeit probably not before around the middle of next year, but then I no doubt could also be accused of looking at matters through a rose tinted mist.
I'm a little surprised that anyone was surprised by the timetable in today's RNS.
The TMS/DM interview several weeks ago outlined an almost identical timetable, so much so that I posted this on 3/10/2021 -
"So.......seismic maybe (?) November 2021, no drilling til 2022, and they are maybe unsure whether to drill the shallow areas first or at least until they get better seismic, or go for the big rig next summer. Maybe seismic late 2021/early 2022, drill shallow targets spring 2022, prove up shallow commerciality mid 2022, raise, big drill late summer 2022?"
Anyone who didn't anticipate what is in this RNS hasn't been paying attention.
I suspect some have just seen the RNS as an opportunity to re-bash DM, a couple more times, and would have done exactly the same whatever it contained.
We know the helium is there, it escapes to the surface; we know that seals exist, Tai-1 showed that.
It is simply a question of whether the seals trap the gas in commercial quantities.
If you believe then you now have several months to sit, wait and accumulate.
Agreed - the old 3/4 drill plan appears to have been thrown out of the window.
Now even the seismic tracks for pre November 2021 look a bit iffy - not much time left there, unless they take the risk that the rainy season isn't going to be very wet, which it may not be.
But drilling looks dependent on the seismic - so no shallow or deep drills until well into 2022.
That said still lots of potential here, if you can wait another 6 months or so.
So I think we could see a gradual strengthening of the share price into 2022, but it will be like watching paint dry.
I'm surprised that there hasn't been more comments on the recent TMS/DM interview as it appears to me that it contained quite a bit of new information.
My interpretation is as follows:-
1. They "hope" to get seismic trucks operating before the November 2021 rainy season but nothing guaranteed.
2. The "shallow" drilling will likely not take place until the seismic results are in place - not in 2021 anyway - it was unclear to me exactly when it would take place, before or simultaneously with the bigger drill?
3. They'll come back with a bigger rig in 2022, as the bigger bit allows the mud to be pumped in at a reduced pressure, thus making washouts less likely.
4. The washouts are a result of the high porosity of the rock, which is a good sign if gas is present.
5. DM remains confident of finding free gas, both at shallow levels and deeper.
6. The shallow potential finds are still very likely to be potentially commercial due to low extraction costs.
7. They don't need funds "at the moment" with £10M cash
So.......seismic maybe (?) November 2021, no drilling til 2022, and they are maybe unsure whether to drill the shallow areas first or at least until they get better seismic, or go for the big rig next summer. Maybe seismic late 2021/early 2022, drill shallow targets spring 2022, prove up shallow commerciality mid 2022, raise, big drill late summer 2022?
DM still seems confident, although he appears to have had a little stuffing knocked out of him - presenter made quite a bit of some folks sitting on big paper [and maybe real] losses.
Any comments, as appeared to be quite a bit in there, or are people just too disillusioned to comment?
And who are Garnett Commerce Limited ?
Just to update - not done much research myself but this is taken from the BMN thread of 19-10-2020 courtesy of posts from mitchoftheday and jogj99 who appear to have identified the correct Garnett ands the recent history thereof -
M - "I posted this last week
"Alfa was on the case of the right Peterson, R Dean Peterson to be exact. Formerly the owner of Cribb Construction Ltd in Calgary, a company which changed name to Garnet Commerce Ltd in 2018 and now the 50% owner of EHL. I found it on the Alberta business registry as they do things by province.
The internet also reveals that he bought $1.6m worth of Largo shares in 2016, was looking to buy 20 tonnes of V2O5 in 2018 and attended a chinaferroalloys online conference, probably the vanadium one in July. It makes me wonder if he's a BMN shareholder, but that's just conjecture. He certainly seems to be a shrewd investor who got hold of half of Enerox at just the right time."
J - "The following information is provided by Creditreform, Europe's largest credit agency. Enerox GmbH
IZ NÖ-Süd, Straße 3, Objekt M
2355 Wiener Neudorf Commercial
FN 483106 a
date of the legal form:
Development, manufacture and sale of industrial goods in the energy industry; Batteries and electrical systems; In the past, assets were acquired, managed and sold, in particular real estate and investments in other companies.
Mr. Schönfeldt Alexander
private person with
sole power of representation
company CELLCUBE ENERGY STORAGE SYSTEMS INC.
company GARNET COMMERCE LTD.
BUSHVELD MINERALS LIMITED
ENEROX HOLDINGS LIMITED
J - "So Garnet Commerce hold 50% of Enerox Holdings plus 12.45% of Enerox GmbH so a total of 45% of Enerox"
M - "That's interesting. So the "original consortium" was BMN and Garnet with 24.9%, with EHL taking 65.1 to make 90% of Enerox GmbH. And we Cellcube subsequently sold their 10%, but no to whom"
If true then clearly Garnett are other the major party in Enerox.
I'm sure that someone will correct me if I'm wrong but it seems to me that if the Mustang deal does not go ahead then there will be two possible likely points of failure.
First is if MUST are not readmitted by 31 December 2021, for whatever reason, in which case we get BMN shares.
Second is if the Garnett legal action derails the whole thing, in which case the parties will either renegotiate different acceptable terms or the whole deal is off, and the money invested will surely be returned to PRIM.
The lawyers must have anticipated that the deal would not complete in certain circumstances, and will have dealt with this eventuality. It is page 1 stuff.
That Garnet is willing to sue suggests that there is value to be made in this deal, and it is noticeable that whilst BMN says they will "robustly" defend the claims, they do not say what the claims are or that they have no merit. The information we have on the claims is very sparse (which again suggests to me that there may be some merit there) and no doubt Garnet presently has a High Court injunction in force preventing MUST and BMN completing the deal.
And who are Garnett Commerce Limited ? A quick google search reveals a Canadian company - but the entry says it is "liable for dissolution" - surely not them?
But whoever they are they have sufficient funds to pursue a High Court action and keep it going (not cheap), so they have funding from somewhere.
That BMN have not detailed the claims or given a detailed public rebuttal and that suggests to me that there is more than just hot air being pumped into the High Court, but whatever happens the lawyers will have anticipated a potential failure (that is their job) and PRIM's money will be safe.
Yes, seems to me that the strategy has changed somewhat as a result of the drilling of the two Tai wells.
Originally it was 3/4 wells down to 1200 metres or thereabouts, with Tai testing zones around 500 metres and then 1100 metres.
Now it seems to be many shallow wells near term, down to 100 metres or so, with better seismic and deeper wells with a bigger drill, next year possibly.
What has changed as a result of the two Tai drills?
Well drilling the deeper wells appears to be more problematic than originally envisaged, and there were shows of free gas (albeit not tested with the full array of equipment) trapped at 70 metres, which appears to have surprised them.
So the shallow wells seem to be a relatively "quick and easy" way to confirm and fully test a discovery of free gas, which would boost the share price and interest, and thus fund a full drilling programme next year at deeper levels.
If decent amounts of gas are accumulating at around 100 metres or so it would certainly suggest that there are larger and more worthwhile amounts at deeper levels, as the gas forms deep within the earth and then migrates to the surface.
Bearing in mind the potential here, which seems presently to have been forgotten, the discovery of even relatively small amounts of free gas at shallow levels would really prove up the overall concept and would in itself result in a major rerate. Thus any new funding should not be much of a problem.
The real problem with these smallish stocks, particularly those without income, is that they swing from wild optimism to the depths of despair, sometimes all within the space of a few weeks.
Neither extreme is justified, but when they become unloved, as in this case, then they are very much unloved.
They've got £10m in the bank, probably not enough for a full "big rig" programme in 2022, but plenty for a quite extensive shallow programme in late 2021/early 2022.
Shallow drill, discovery, concept proven, raise ( presumably well above 8p), drill big in mid 2022.
Sit, wait, accumulate.
Seems to me that the days are long gone when the mere existence of an interview with DM would get the share price moving upwards and the twitterati all excited.
Even directors purchasing shares earlier this month has failed to excite the price, and the shares have actually fallen slightly from the respective directors' purchase price.
After all the hype over the summer this share certainly has the whiff of damaged goods, and it will take some time for this to play out.
But that said, and just as with oilers a couple of years ago, the time of peak indifference could present a very good buying opportunity.
If you count up the on book share trades since 11-8-21, that is just over 3 weeks it comes to just short of 800M.
Total shares in issue are 615M.
If you include your off book, then possibly the number of shares traded in that time may be exceed 1 billion, or twice the issued capital. Some of the shares haven't been traded, others churned may times.
Since IPO the issued capital has been churned I would guess maybe 4 times.
Never a TR1.
Certainly odd behaviour.
I suspect certain state actors are present in size here (but I have not direct evidence), and maybe churning the shares themselves to prevent any specific holdings or holders being identified by anyone, including the company itself.
Not easy to trace when the shares never remain still for more than a few days or weeks at a time.
The LSE rules exist, but are of no effect if you are out of the jurisdiction. The BVI incorporation also helps any nefarious actors and hinders the company in this respect.
No doubt they will reveal themselves when they are ready - post big strike.
If there is no big strike, they'll probably write the investment off.
They are taking a risk, of course, but on a risk reward basis they no doubt consider it to be worthwhile.
We live in interesting times.
Brief mention in "The Times" Market Report section today.....
"Among London’s smaller companies, shares in Helium One, which is on the hunt for helium gas in Tanzania, made a comeback after a sharp fall a couple of weeks ago. The stocks rose ¼p, or 4.3 per cent, to 9p after its directors snapped up 242,900 shares at 8p a share."
Their journo's remain interested in following the story, and maybe Mr Cowie will comment tomorrow, he being a long term type investor. I'm not expecting him to be selling up anytime soon, maybe an outside chance of him doubling down?
And the rainy season is expected to be shorter than usual, with drought conditions in some parts of Tanzania, not good for some but possibly an operational bonus for He1?
"Dar es Salaam. The Tanzania Metrological Authority (TMA) yesterday warned that the country faces drought in the forthcoming rainy season as indicators show many regions will receive rains below normal average."
The only significant thing that has changed here is the share price.
Interesting that they could get a copyright waiver from "The Times", so they could publish the article in its entirety.
Could it be that all four exploration wells will be drilled at Tai so as to make a really accurate assessment of the prospect?
I haven't posted recently, but just though that I'd add my tuppence worth - FWIW.
1. Obviously disappointed by the drastic fall to 10p - I know some people said that this was going to be a rollercoaster, but I wasn't expecting that. Did my loyal best to top up but didn't get them that cheap.
2. With regard to Tai-2 - I thought that from the beginning of July that this was always a likely scenario, or at least a distinct possibility.
On 3rd July 2021 I did post the following on here -
"We don't know that plans have actually changed, but the lack of a second drilling site certainly suggests that they have, if only because things will at the very least not be on schedule.
That the Tai well is now Tai-1, and that additional pipes have been delivered to the wellhead in the last few days, in excess of those apparently required for Tai-1, suggests Tai-2 will be drilled from here, and that all is indeed on schedule.
That Tai-2 may be drilled from here, reinforces the suggestion that they are more than confident about the result from Tai-1."
So from early July I do believe that Tai-2 was on the cards. Obviously the lack of a firm scientific result from the intermediate and lower levels of Tai-1 and Tai-1A makes it more important, that perhaps it was at that time. Clearly I got the timing of the first well completely wrong, but Tai-2 will allow them to make up much of that. Tai-2 maybe was intended to firm up the size of any discovery, whereas now it is intended to be the "Discovery", but I think that with whatever results that have from Tai-1 and 1A, combined with Tai-2 will give them a pretty good idea of what is down there, size wise. They remain confident. Tai-2 has been the plan for a while.
3. I would go as far as to say Tai-3 will follow, but not necessarily from this pad.
4. That the Minister visited the site, probably around the day of the spud of Tai-2, is more than important. He wouldn't visit a duster and if a discovery from Tai-2 is announced, and makes headlines, he would wish to be able to say to the President, or anyone else who asks, "I'm on top of my brief, I visited the site a few weeks ago, I know all about it..."
5. Over the last 8 days 390M+ shares have been traded, of a total of 615M. Obviously many of these will have been churned, some possibly many times, but still no TR1 for an increased holding from anybody since IPO, despite the total shares in issue being turned over several times since then.
6. That the share price fell to 10p on ambivalent results (it obviously wasn't a duster) suggests to me that possibly dark forces are at work (or at least they are "darker" than the usual "dark forces"), and it wasn't just shorters trying to get the price down, but someone possibly loading up big time on cheap shares. And that someone has no intention of filing a TR1, until they see it as appropriate, as they don't play by the rules, or at least not "our" rules.
The price is creeping up very slowly - I think 28p is an all time closing high.
There is certainly an element of FOMO.
The market made an initial error in its interpretation of the 21/6 RNS, and also to an extent with the 12/7 RNS, with significant price declines after each, followed by recovery.
The market is unlikely to make a similar error for a third time, although if it does there will be plenty waiting to top up.
Still here for the 4 drill programme, even if it lasts into 2022.
Full and significant value will only start to appear after that, although if the next RNS is a whopper it could well triple on the day.
All IMHO, DYOR etc, etc..